U.S. Economic Charts

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

http://www.dallasfed.org

Housing Starts and PermitsThousands

Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession Housing Starts (Dec 19 release, Nov = 861) Permits Issued (Dec 28 release, Nov = 900)

Consumer Confidence/Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org

Index

2030405060708090

100110120130140150

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession Confidence (Dec 27 release, Dec = 65.1) Sentiment (Dec 21 release, Dec = 72.9)

Home Sales

Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors http://www.dallasfed.org

Thousands of Existing HomesThousands of New Homes

Recession

2,800

3,300

3,800

4,300

4,800

5,300

5,800

6,300

6,800

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

New Home Sales (Dec 27 release, Nov = 377) Existing Home Sales (Dec 20 release, Nov = 4440)

Initial Claims for Unemploymentand Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor http://www.dallasfed.org

Percent Unemployment

4-week MAThousands of Initial Claims

Recession

3.544.555.566.577.588.599.51010.5

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Initial Claims (Dec 27 release, Dec 22=357) Unemployment Rate (Dec 07 release, Nov=7.7)

New Orders for Durable Goods

Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org

Billions of Dollars

Recession

7085

100115130145160175190205220235250

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Durable Goods (Dec 21 release, Nov = 220.9) Excl. Transportation (Dec 21 release, Nov = 153.5)

Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.37

3-year average

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.58

3-year average

Personal Income

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.64

3-year average

Index of Leading Economic Indicators

Source: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org

Index

70

80

90

100

110

120

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession Leading Index (Dec 20 release, Nov = 95.8)

Real GDP

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org

1-quarter % change, annualized

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 20 release, Q3 = 3.13-year average

Industrial Production

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-4.5-4

-3.5-3

-2.5-2

-1.5-1

-0.50

0.51

1.52

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 14 release, Nov = 1.1

3-year average

Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

Percent

636567697173757779818385

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession CU Rate (Dec 14 release, Nov = 76.6) Historic Average (1948-present)

Retail Sales

1-month % change

Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 13 release, Nov = 0.27

3-year average

Retail Sales, Excluding Autos

1-month % change

Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 13 release, Nov = 0.03

3-year average

U.S. Imports and Exports

Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org

Billions of Dollars

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession Exports (Dec 11 release, Oct = 180.5) Imports (Dec 11 release, Oct = 222.8)

Change in Nonfarm Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

Thousands of jobs

-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100

0100200300400500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 07 release, Nov = 1463-year average

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index

Index

Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 05 release, Nov = 61.2

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Source: Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org

Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 03 release, Nov = 49.5

Real Value of the Dollar

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

March 1973 = 100

* Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden

70

80

90

100

110

120

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Exchange Value of the US$ (Dec 03 release, Nov=84.3)

US$ vs Major Currencies* (Dec 03 release, Nov=83.4)

WAGES AND PRICES

http://www.dallasfed.org

PCE Price Index

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 21 release, Nov = -0.223-year average

Core PCE Price Index

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 21 release, Nov = 0.04

3-year average

Consumer Price Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 14 release, Nov = -0.313-year average

Core Consumer Price Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 14 release, Nov = 0.113-year average

Producer Price Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-3-2.5

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 13 release, Nov = -0.83-year average

Core Producer Price Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 13 release, Nov = 0.13-year average

Average Hourly Earnings

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 07 release, Nov = 0.153-year average

Nonfarm Business Productivity

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-quarter % change, annualized

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 05 release, Q3 = 2.93-year average

Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-quarter % change, annualized

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 05 release, Q3 = -1.93-year average

Commodity Prices

Source: Commodity Research Bureau http://www.dallasfed.org

1967=100, EOP

Recession

100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (Dec 04 release, Nov=889.7)

KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (Dec 04 release, Nov=515.3)

ISM Manufacturing Prices Index

Index

Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 03 release, Nov = 52.5

Employment Cost Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

1-quarter % change

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Oct 31 release, Q3 = 0.43-year average

FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS

http://www.dallasfed.org

0102030405060708090

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr.--1-yr. Treasury yield spread

Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org

Percent

Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months.

Extraordinary monetary policy*

Recession Neftci Recession Probability

*Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on short-term interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries.

Real Federal Funds RatePercent

Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia;U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan

http://www.dallasfed.org

-2.07

-3.08-5-4-3-2-101234

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation

Target Fed Funds Rate (Dec 28) less SPF Expected Inflation (Nov 09)

End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation

Target Fed Funds Rate (Dec 28) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (Dec 21)

Short-Term Interest RatesPercent

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Target Fed Fund Rate (Dec 28 = 0.125)3-Month T-Bill Rate (Dec 28 = 0.01)Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (Dec 27 = 0.75)3-month LIBOR (Dec 31 = 0.306)

Long-Term Interest RatesPercent

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mortgage Rate (week of Dec 27 = 3.35)10-year T-Bond (week of Dec 28= 1.8)10-year T-Bond (Dec 28 = 1.73)

Bond SpreadsPercent

Merrill Lynch’s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody’s AAA and BAA Corporate Percent

Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch http://www.dallasfed.org

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

02468

1012141618

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Dec 21 = 3.06)Daily (Dec 27 = -3.62)BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Dec 21 = 0.96)Daily (Dec 27 = 0.96)

Yield CurvePercent

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

3-Month T-Bill Rate (week of Dec 28) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Dec 28 = 0.01)1-year T-Bill Rate (week of Dec 28) 1-year T-Bill Rate (Dec 28 = 0.15)10-year T-Bond Rate (week of Dec 28) 10-year T-Bond Rate (Dec 28 = 1.73)

Money Supply: M1

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change, annualized

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 27 release, Nov = -10.793-year average

Money Supply: M2

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change, annualized

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dec 27 release, Nov = 5.813-year average