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Use and distribution of extractive sector revenues
Roger Hosein
07/04/2014 1
07/04/2014 2
Table 4: Trinidad and Tobago’s Macroeconomic indicators, 1991 ‐2011Total reserves in months of imports (Import Cover)
Gross Official Reserves ($US mn) CAB (% of GDP)
GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
1991 1.92 357.68 ‐0.09 5,007.591992 1.12 190.21 2.51 4,887.101993 1.53 228.18 2.47 4,778.191994 2.3 373.08 4.4 4,911.23
1995 1.77 379.08 5.51 5,071.291996 2.47 563.76 1.83 5,240.661997 2.36 723.24 ‐10.69 5,354.501998 2.62 800.04 ‐10.65 5,743.771999 3.31 962.76 0.45 5,970.332000 3.81 1,402.80 6.67 6,311.112001 5.01 1,712.70 4.71 6,544.682002 5.35 1,760.10 0.85 7,044.092003 5.89 2,007.50 8.76 8,033.102004 6.69 2,993.00 12.78 8,637.572005 8.43 4,885.70 22.49 9,242.202006 9.84 6,530.80 39.4 10,264.672007 8.72 6,673.50 24.7 10,714.742008 11.4 9,380.30 30.3 10,959.662009 11.9 8,651.60 8.5 10,555.892010 13.1 9,070.00 20.2 10,513.53
2011 13.5 9,822.70 12.3 10,328.732012
(provisional) 10.4 9,200.10 5.5 10,452.67Source: AES of T&T (Various years)
07/04/2014 3
GDP (constant LCU), TT$mn GDP (current LCU), TT$mn
2000 51370.56 51370.56
2001 53474 55007.2
2002 57759.2 56290
2003 66095.9 70731.5
2004 71317.47 81160.8
2005 75428.75 100682
2006 85795.4 115951.1
2007 89874.3 136952.5
2008 92922.6 175287.2
2009 88841.7 121281.3
2010 89029.2 131289.4
2011 86731.3 150373.2
2012 87810.9 153587.7
07/04/2014 4
GDP per capita (constant LCU) GDP per capita (current LCU)1990 30781.43 17627.651991 31401.29 18531.51992 30694.87 18999.411993 30081.8 19714.481994 31006.16 23443.431995 32112.08 25256.631996 33290.2 27485.351997 34127.82 28453.521998 36724.88 30149.521999 38268.78 33910.272000 40513.7 40513.72001 42027.84 43232.862002 45204.79 44054.932003 51481.85 55092.52004 55268.63 62896.872005 58159.33 77630.842006 65820.37 88955.162007 68604.24 104540.72008 70585.8 133151.52009 67176.17 91704.842010 67035.26 98855.432011 65060.74 112801.22012 65656 114837.2
07/04/2014 5
GDP (constant 2005 US$) Total natural resources rents (% of GDP)1970 6019.9 8.51975 6890.0 34.91980 10065.7 47.51981 10526.4 37.61982 10951.3 28.21983 9943.4 23.91984 9371.4 25.01985 8985.3 25.01986 8690.7 19.81987 8294.0 22.01988 7969.1 18.81989 7903.2 22.81990 8022.4 27.31991 8237.6 20.91992 8101.9 18.81993 7984.5 20.41994 8268.9 18.31995 8595.9 18.11996 8935.2 22.51997 9176.8 20.61998 9889.8 13.61999 10323.8 15.42000 10957.0 34.12001 11405.7 29.22002 12319.7 26.72003 14097.9 41.52004 15211.6 44.22005 16088.5 62.22006 18299.7 63.62007 19169.7 54.62008 19819.9 60.62009 18949.4 38.72010 18989.4 36.72011 18499.3 37.62012 18729.6 36.6
07/04/2014 6
Table 5: Real GDP Growth Rate of various sectors, 1996‐2012Date
Petroleu
m
Non
Petroleu
m
Petroche
mic
als
Other
Petroleu
m
Governm
en
t
Agriculture
Constructio
n
Manufacturi
ng
Distrib
ution
Finance,
Insurance&
Other
Services
1996 7.48 7.22 12.19 6.79 2.08 6.90 5.31 4.39 8.52 11.16 2.01
1997 0.86 11.34 5.96 0.08 0.63 13.10 ‐0.65 7.91 18.08 22.51 1.56
1998 9.08 6.76 11.16 8.74 0.60 ‐7.20 14.20 11.48 7.07 ‐0.44 10.71
1999 21.50 3.38 26.46 20.68 ‐4.34 2.30 5.99 ‐7.18 7.98 11.71 1.37
2000 12.40 5.48 3.18 14.00 ‐6.09 ‐2.40 7.56 6.04 5.89 12.38 ‐1.78
2001 5.59 2.83 6.75 5.40 ‐1.47 8.70 10.26 9.78 ‐2.77 0.78 2.11
2002 13.50 4.82 12.46 13.66 3.65 8.70 ‐5.08 3.80 1.32 11.54 5.23
2003 31.40 6.70 4.50 35.50 ‐1.00 ‐15.30 23.40 12.20 2.00 7.30 1.70
2004 8.20 6.70 11.30 7.50 0.60 ‐34.20 8.10 5.20 3.20 21.70 4.10
2005 8.30 5.00 19.50 n.d. 1.90 ‐5.40 16.10 13.50 4.50 ‐2.40 0.07
2006 21.80 6.40 15.30 22.70 ‐1.50 ‐10.10 6.20 13.50 15.10 1.00 5.20
2007 1.70 7.60 ‐2.30 2.20 3.20 21.80 7.10 16.30 3.30 10.40 2.80
2008 ‐0.30 6.50 ‐2.80 n.d. 1.70 7.60 4.50 4.10 17.60 3.10 ‐4.60
2009 ‐1.80 ‐4.90 8.70 ‐3.10 19.10 ‐32.40 ‐7.10 1.90 ‐20.40 ‐4.50 5.60
2010 3.20 ‐2.60 ‐0.80 3.70 1.20 76.80 ‐28.40 1.20 ‐9.70 8.10 1.50
2011 ‐3.90 ‐0.50 ‐4.70 ‐3.80 ‐0.70 ‐0.10 ‐8.80 ‐1.10 4.70 ‐0.60 ‐1.50
2012 1 00 1 90 0 80 1 10 1 00 4 90 2 00 0 40 1 40 6 10 0 70
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Table 6: Real GDP growth rate of the T&T Economy (Quarter‐on‐Quarter %)GDP Growth Rate (2000=100)
Mar‐05 1.61Jun‐05 1.28Sep‐05 ‐0.99Dec‐05 3.7Mar‐06 4.32Jun‐06 4.04Sep‐06 1.2Dec‐06 ‐1.12Mar‐07 2.79Jun‐07 ‐1.3Sep‐07 1.51Dec‐07 3.15Mar‐08 ‐0.83Jun‐08 ‐0.83Sep‐08 2.67Dec‐08 ‐2.08Mar‐09 ‐4.56Jun‐09 0.79Sep‐09 ‐0.45Dec‐09 5.21Mar‐10 ‐3.42Jun‐10 ‐2.32Sep‐10 2.32Dec‐10 0.21Mar‐11 ‐2.58Jun‐11 1.77Sep‐11 ‐1.69Dec‐11 0.41Mar‐12 0.1Jun‐12 ‐1.6Sep‐12 3.08Dec‐12 ‐0.44Mar‐13 0.66Jun‐13 n a
07/04/2014 8
Table 7: Quarterly Real GDP growth of Petroleum and Non‐Petroleum Sector, Q2 2010‐Q1 2013
Date Non‐Petroleum Petroleum Total
Jun‐10 ‐2.31 ‐2.33 ‐2.32
Sep‐10 2.6 1.95 2.32
Dec‐10 1.52 ‐1.54 0.21
Mar‐11 ‐3.42 ‐1.43 ‐2.58
Jun‐11 1.08 2.69 1.77
Sep‐11 0.95 ‐5.21 ‐1.69
Dec‐11 3.31 ‐3.7 0.41
Mar‐12 ‐3.86 6.12 0.1
Jun‐12 0.35 ‐4.29 ‐1.6
Sep‐12 3.24 2.84 3.08
Dec‐12 2.19 ‐4.26 ‐0.44
Mar‐13 ‐3.19 6.61 0.66
Source: CBTT Database, 2013
07/04/2014 9
Rank Score
2006‐2007 76 3.95
2007‐2008 84 3.88
2008‐2009 92 3.85
2009‐2010 86 3.91
2010‐2011 84 3.97
2011‐2012 81 4
2012‐2013 84 4.01
2013‐2014 92 3.91
07/04/2014 10
1.02 Intellectual property protection ............................... 3.3 ............91
1.04 Public trust in politicians ......................................... 2.2 ..........111
1.05 Irregular payments and bribes ................................ 3.5 ............95
1.07 Favoritism in decisions of government officials ....... 2.4 ..........125
1.08 Wastefulness of government spending ................... 2.9 ............96
1.12 Transparency of government policymaking ............. 3.9 ............94
1.14 Business costs of crime and violence..................... 2.3 ..........145
1.15 Organized crime ..................................................... 4.1 ..........120
1.16 Reliability of police services .................................... 3.1 ..........121
1.17 Ethical behavior of firms ......................................... 3.4 ..........118
1.18 Strength of auditing and reporting standards ......... 4.2 ............95
1.19 Efficacy of corporate boards .................................. 4.1 ..........116
1.20 Protection of minority shareholders’ interests ......... 3.7 ..........111
2.06 Available airline seat km/week, millions* ............... 61.4 ............95
3.03 Inflation, annual % change* .................................... 9.3 ..........129
4.05 Business impact of HIV/AIDS ................................. 4.4 ..........115
4.06 HIV prevalence, % adult pop.* ............................. 1.50 ..........122
4.07 Infant mortality, deaths/1,000 live births* .............. 24.5 ............96
4.08 Life expectancy, years* ......................................... 70.0 ............96
5.02 Tertiary education enrollment, gross %*................ 11.5 ..........113
6.03 Effectiveness of anti‐monopoly policy ..................... 3.7 ..........104
6.07 No. days to start a business* .................................. 41 ..........127
6.08 Agricultural policy costs.......................................... 3.4 ..........113
6.10 Trade tariffs, % duty* ............................................ 10.5 ..........111
6.13 Burden of customs procedures .............................. 3.1 ..........133
6.14 Imports as a percentage of GDP* ........................ 33.3 ..........111
6.15 Degree of customer orientation .............................. 3.6 ..........137
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7.01 Cooperation in labor‐employer relations ................. 3.5 ..........134
7.02 Flexibility of wage determination ............................. 4.5 ..........108
7.04 Redundancy costs, weeks of salary* .................... 20.5 ............96
7.06 Pay and productivity ............................................... 3.3 ..........123
7.10 Women in labor force, ratio to men* ..................... 0.73 ............94
8.04 Ease of access to loans ......................................... 2.5 ............93
8.05 Venture capital availability ....................................... 2.2 ..........111
9.07 Mobile broadband subscriptions/100 pop.*............ 1.5 ..........117
10th pillar: Market size
10.01 Domestic market size index, 1–7 (best)* ................. 2.4 ..........120
10.02 Foreign market size index, 1–7 (best)* .................... 3.9 ............98
10.03 GDP (PPP$ billions)* ............................................ 26.7 ..........103
11.03 State of cluster development .................................. 3.5 ............91
11.04 Nature of competitive advantage ............................ 3.0 ..........114
11.05 Value chain breadth ................................................ 3.4 ..........102
11.09 Willingness to delegate authority ............................ 3.3 ..........111
12th pillar: Innovation
12.01 Capacity for innovation ........................................... 2.9 ..........123
12.02 Quality of scientific research institutions ................. 3.3 ..........100
12.03 Company spending on R&D ................................... 2.7 ..........117
12.04 University‐industry collaboration in R&D ................. 3.2 ..........102
12.05 Gov’t procurement of advanced tech products ...... 2.7 ..........130
Shale gas• Shale gas has become not only an energyexploration and production issue wherever it is ormight be located, but also a macroeconomic issuefor national economies, a microeconomic issue forenergy‐intensive industry sectors, a globalenvironmental issue for local communities, apublic safety and health issue wherever there isexploration or production, and an energyindependence and national security issue incountries that are dependent on oil importsand/or gas imports.07/04/2014 12
• Like labour and capital, natural resources arefactors of production that serve as inputs ingoods and services production. While there isa broad range of natural resources that couldbe discussed, the focus here will be on energyand, to a limited extent, on land and water,which are the natural resources typicallyincluded in aggregate production functions(for discussion of trade and a wider variety ofnatural resources, see the 2010 World TradeReport (WTO, 2010) and Ruta and Venables(2012).07/04/2014 13
07/04/2014 14
Rapid growth in demand
•
‐60
140
340
540
740
940
1,140
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Demand for Gas (BCM)
Total North America Total S. & Cent. America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East Total Africa Total Asia Pacific
Rapid growth in demand• India is building infrastructure for importing LNG
07/04/2014 16
Terminal Commissioning Capacity
Dahej LNG Termina 2004 5 in 2004, 10 in 2009, 15 planned for 2016
Hazira LNG Terminal 2005 10.0 million tons per annum (mmtpa) is planned, currently at 2.5 mmtpa
Dabhol LNG Terminal 2014 after the construction of the breakwater (the breakwater is equipment in the water to protect ships from big waves
10.0 million tons per annum (mmtpa)
Kochi LNG Terminal Q 3, 2013 5.0 mmtpa
Gangavaram LNG Terminal
Planned for 2016 5.0 mmtpa
Source: Petronet LNG LTD, May 2013. http://www.petronetlng.com/PDF/Corporate_Presentation_as_on_May_2013_USD_29052013.pdf
Rapid growth in demand• India is building infrastructure for importing LNG
07/04/2014 17
0.00
200000000,000.00
400000000,000.00
600000000,000.00
800000000,000.00
1000000000,000.00
1200000000,000.00
1400000000,000.00
1600000000,000.001961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
India GDP (constant 2005, US$)
Surge in productionAnother feature of world natural gas markets is shale gas. USshale gas deposits has been proven has risen from 23 TCF in2007 to 60.6 TCF in 2011 to 131.616 TCF in 2011, and 665TCF by 2013.
07/04/2014 18
Source: US EIA database
year US Shale gas (TCF)
2007 23.304
2008 34.428
2009 60.644
2010 97.449
2011 131.616
Surge in production
•
07/04/2014 19Source: EIA database
Surge in production
07/04/2014 20
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Axis Title
Henry Hub prices
HH
07/04/2014 21
07/04/2014 22
Table 12: Improper use of subsidies and economic rents
23
Transfers and Subsidies(TT$mn) Central Gov't Current
Revenue ‐ Oil (TT$mns)Non‐Institutional Population (000's)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Real Economicgrowth Rate
Unemployment (000's)
1991 1305.2 2,717.5 837.2 18.4 2.68 91.11992 1054.3 1,817.5 841.0 19.5 ‐1.65 99.11993 1203.9 1,804.4 847.9 19.7 ‐1.45 99.91994 1437.4 1,895.9 857.2 18.3 3.56 93.71995 1597.4 2,554.7 864.8 17.1 3.95 89.31996 2114.5 3,060.7 876.6 16.2 3.95 86.11997 1828.1 2,020.5 896.6 15.0 2.7 81.11998 2199.3 1,151.5 913.4 14.2 7.77 79.41999 2369.8 1,999.6 926.0 13.1 4.39 74.02000 3041.1 4,403.6 936.1 12.1 6.13 69.52001 3157.4 3,508.5 954.9 10.8 4.09 62.42002 3525.5 3,668.7 961.8 10.4 8.01 61.12003 4148.8 6,904.6 968.2 10.4 14.43 62.32004 6268.2 8,159.3 973.6 8.3 7.9 51.12005 8177.3 15,851.8 979.0 7.9 5.76 49.62006 10934.5 21,111.5 978.2 6.2 13.2 39.02007 13296.7 19,365.9 980.8 5.5 4.8 34.52008 14653.3 31,100.5 987.1 4.6 2.7 29.12009 15539.6 15,330.4 991.1 5.3 ‐3.3 32.62010 15676.6 19,123.2 997.1 5.9 ‐0.02 36.72011 19717.6 23,292.8 1,005.7 5.8 ‐1.4 31.12012 19632.2 9,618.3 1,009.5 4.9 0.2 33.82013p 11,428.5* ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
24
CEPEPTable 10: Budgetary allocations to CEPEP
Fiscal Year Budget Allocation (Millions)May to September 2002 $75
2003 $155 2004 $225 2005 $2442006 $4232007 $350 2008 $3282009 $3302010 $3192011 $3202012 $3202013 $468
Source: Social Sector Investment Programme Reports (Various Years)
07/04/2014 25
minimum wage
imputed minimum wage
real minimum wage
Index of Retail Prices ‐ All Items ‐(Jan. 03=100)
1998 7 7.0 83.4 100.0 7.01999 7 7.2 86.2 103.4 6.82000 7 7.5 89.3 107.1 6.52001 7 7.9 94.2 113.0 6.22002 7 8.2 98.1 117.7 5.92003 7 8.6 101.9 122.2 5.72004 7 8.9 105.7 126.8 5.52005 7 9.5 112.9 135.5 5.22006 9 10.3 122.3 146.8 6.12007 9 11.1 132.0 158.4 5.72008 9 12.4 147.9 177.4 5.12009 9 13.3 158.2 189.8 4.72010 9 14.7 174.9 209.8 4.32011 12.5 15.4 183.8 220.5 5.72012 12.5 16.9 200.8 240.9 5.22013 12.5 17.7 211.3 253.4 4.9
07/04/2014 26
Distribution of Elementary Workers by Industrial Group
YearTotal Agriculture
Manufacturing (excludes sugar and petroleum)
CSPTotal Employed Labor Force
EW(excludes sugar)
1991 401085 103300 15600 7800 23600
1992 406054 102100 16500 7900 31200
1993 404634 102100 15300 6500 33000
1994 415602 107400 17600 7900 36500
1995 431608 103700 14200 8000 37400
1996 444220 108100 12800 8400 41700
1997 459876 110300 12400 9000 42000
1998 479313 112800 11900 10200 34000
1999 489351 116500 11800 9800 36400
2000 503334 115300 11000 9600 35100
2001 514126 114600 10000 9400 36000
2002 525081 115700 9100 10300 34600
2003 534153 117700 8900 10800 37100
2004 562378 124700 8400 11200 42600
2005 574025 130100 8000 11100 40100
2006 586205 127300 7600 11200 39400
2007 587892 120500 7200 9800 36700
2008 597700 121200 7700 9900 37500
2009 588300 133400 7400 10000 36300
2010 582200 125900 5900 7800 40900
2011 585346 123300 6700 7000 43000
Source: CSO, Continuous Sampling Survey of the Population (various years)
07/04/2014 27
Figure 2: Employment Trends in selected segments of the Labor Market, 1991 ‐ 2010
YearTotal Employment
Employment in Community social and personal employment (CSP)
Elementary Occupations in CSP
Women in elementary employment jobs in the CSP sector
Number of workers in CSP working less than 33 hours
CSP/TOTAL employment (%)
Total Elementary Occupations
1991 401085 115700 23600 12400 22600 28.8 103300 25.81992 406054 142000 31200 17400 48300 35.0 102100 25.11993 404634 143900 33000 19300 48000 35.6 102100 25.21994 415602 145600 36500 20200 42600 35.0 107400 25.81995 431608 154100 37400 20300 46800 35.7 103700 24.01996 444220 160800 41700 22500 46600 36.2 108100 24.31997 459876 163500 42000 32800 44500 35.6 110300 24.01998 479313 147100 34000 17400 26500 30.7 112800 23.51999 489351 151500 36400 18800 28400 31.0 116500 23.82000 503334 151400 35100 18200 28000 30.1 115300 22.92001 514126 154400 36000 17500 22400 30.0 114600 22.32002 525081 158100 34600 18300 23200 30.1 115700 22.02003 534153 163200 37100 20600 24600 30.6 117700 22.02004 562378 175300 42600 23700 22400 31.2 124700 22.22005 574025 176500 40100 21800 19700 30.7 130100 22.72006 586205 181100 39400 20400 21300 30.9 127300 21.72007 587892 178600 36700 20100 20400 30.4 120500 20.52008 597700 179500 37500 21200 19400 30.0 121200 20.32009 588300 182500 36300 19700 20600 31.0 133400 22.72010 582200 192300 40900 20900 20900 33.0 125900 21.62011 585346 192800 43000 18800 20200 32.9 123300 21.1
Source: Continuous Sampling Survey of the Population, various years
07/04/2014 28
Date Persons with Jobs (000's) Labour Force (000's) Unemployment (000's) Unemployment Rate (%) Participation Ratio (%)
Mar‐2005 567.00 623.30 56.30 9.00 63.81Jun‐2005 569.60 618.90 49.30 8.00 63.22Sep‐2005 569.40 620.10 50.60 8.20 63.29Dec‐2005 589.90 632.60 42.70 6.70 64.52Mar‐2006 582.40 625.10 42.70 6.80 63.71Jun‐2006 582.90 627.90 45.10 7.20 64.28Sep‐2006 582.60 619.50 36.80 5.90 63.40Dec‐2006 596.80 628.40 31.60 5.00 64.25Mar‐2007 575.10 615.40 40.30 6.50 62.89Jun‐2007 579.70 616.70 37.00 6.00 62.89Sep‐2007 593.30 625.90 32.60 5.20 63.76Dec‐2007 603.10 631.40 28.30 4.50 64.26Mar‐2008 588.40 620.80 32.60 5.30 63.12Jun‐2008 592.80 621.40 28.60 4.60 62.95Sep‐2008 600.80 630.70 29.90 4.70 63.83Dec‐2008 608.70 633.60 24.90 3.90 64.05Mar‐2009 598.20 630.00 31.80 5.00 63.63Jun‐2009 592.50 624.30 31.80 5.10 62.98Sep‐2009 580.20 616.10 35.90 5.80 62.14Dec‐2009 582.60 613.50 31.00 5.10 61.86Mar‐2010 573.50 614.60 41.10 6.70 61.95Jun‐2010 578.90 608.40 29.50 4.80 61.02Sep‐2010 584.30 620.80 36.60 5.90 62.17Dec‐2010 591.80 631.60 39.80 6.30 63.16Mar‐2011 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.Jun‐2011 581.90 617.80 35.90 5.80 61.62Sep‐2011 578.00 609.50 31.50 5.20 60.56Dec‐2011 596.10 621.90 25.90 4.20 61.70Mar‐2012 589.60 623.50 33.80 5.40 61.76Jun‐2012 596.80 627.30 30.50 4.90 61.83Sep‐2012 600.90 631.50 30.60 4.80 62.04
07/04/2014 29
DateEmployment in Agriculture (000's)
Employment in Construction (incl.Electricity & Water) ‐
(000's)
Employment in Manufacturing
(000's)
Employment in All Other Sectors
(000's)
Employment in Petroleum & Gas
(000's)
Persons Employed ‐Transport Storage &
Comm. (000's)Mar‐05 26 98.3 56.9 325.3 17.6 41.4Jun‐05 21.1 103.2 56.3 323.1 20.2 42.5Sep‐05 25.8 100.5 52.6 328.7 20.2 39.4Dec‐05 27.2 105.2 60.6 331.1 19 43.9Mar‐06 24.5 102.2 59.4 329.8 19.5 43.7Jun‐06 28.8 101.7 55.4 330.9 20.8 43.3Sep‐06 23.9 105.7 57 333.2 19.1 43.1Dec‐06 25.8 108.5 53 348.3 19.4 40.8Mar‐07 22.5 103.3 59.8 326.9 22 40.1Jun‐07 26.7 112 54.3 323.1 21.4 41.7Sep‐07 21.7 111.7 54.3 341 22.7 41.5Dec‐07 18.8 113.5 53.2 354.7 19.9 42.8Mar‐08 22.9 115.3 57 328.8 18.4 45Jun‐08 29.7 116.4 57.7 325.6 20.9 41.9Sep‐08 23.3 121.3 53.2 342.4 20.1 39.8Dec‐08 16.3 112.5 56.1 364 21.4 37.8Mar‐09 21.3 111.5 53.7 346.6 18.5 45.2Jun‐09 26.3 114.9 49.9 340.3 18.2 41.2Sep‐09 22.2 117.2 54.3 329.1 19.7 37Dec‐09 22 110 54.3 339.1 20.6 35.2Mar‐10 21.1 97.9 52.2 343.5 19 39.7Jun‐10 18.4 96.3 51.9 354.9 18.8 38.2Sep‐10 23.6 101.5 52.6 349.6 17.3 38.5Dec‐10 23 106.5 51.8 352.1 19.4 35.3Mar‐11 n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d. n.d.Jun‐11 20.5 92.8 47.1 360.2 17.6 42Sep‐11 21.4 98.4 50.1 349.1 19.3 38.4Dec‐11 23.3 101.9 53.3 353 19.5 42.1Mar‐12 22.2 99.5 47.3 358.4 21.2 40.3Jun‐12 19.5 100.6 47.2 363 20 44.1
Table 14: Fuel Subsidy claimed on types of Fuel
Calendar yearSubsidy Claimed (TT$mn)
Premium95 RON
Super 92 RON
Regular 83 RON
Auto Diesel
Kerosene LPG TOTAL
2007 411.87 579.43 18.97 1,144.33 17.66 38.04 2,210.302008 638.55 816.31 23.08 2,061.03 28.57 50.42 3,617.952009 (5.69) 517.73 9.05 1,000.14 12.81 65.80 1,599.842010 95.33 927.46 14.35 1,792.17 20.78 69.23 2,919.322011 236.22 1,634.21 26.30 2,407.65 34.43 74.11 4,412.932012 203.91 1,863.09 23.37 2,352.11 31.36 74.11 4,547.95
2013 YTD (July 2013)
23.99 1,165.29 11.93 1,331.43 16.57 48.51 2,597.71
Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Affairs, 2013
30
31
Table 15: Motor Vehicles on Register
Year PrivateHire and Rented Omnibus
Goods Vehicles
Tractors and Trailers
Motor Cycles Industrial
Total Registered
Real GDP
1991 139310 22853 288 35943 7357 2185 386 208322 30359.62010 372853 42 635 644 96 061 15 693 5 995 1 294 535175 89285.1
2011p 373244 42912 673 96824 15964 6106 1324 537047 88060.8
Introduction to the GATE Programme
2001: Dollar for Dollar programme –50% TLE Tuition
Funding
2004: GATE Programme – 50% Tuition Funding + Up
to 100% Tuition Funding based on
Means Test
2006: GATE Programme Modified – 100% Universal Tuition Funding for persons wishing to
pursue TLE
32
The GATE Programme• One of the major goals created for the GATEprogramme was the attainment of a tertiaryparticipation rate of 60% by 2015. By 2008, thetertiary participation rate within Trinidad andTobago had increased to 40% (Trinidad andTobago International Financial Centre).
• In addition to the increase in the tertiaryparticipation rate, the introduction of the GATEProgramme “ brought with it a mushrooming ofprivate tertiary level institutions.”
33
Table 2: Showing the Number of Participating TLIs in Trinidad and Tobago
34
Year Number of GATE Approved Private Institutions
Number of GATE ApprovedPublic Institutions
2004‐2007 31 21
2007‐2009 34 16
2009‐2011 37 16
2011‐2013 42 16
Report of the Standing Committee on the GATE Programme (2011)
Expenditure on and Beneficiaries of GATE ProgrammeTable 3: Total Expenditure $TT (Millions)
Fiscal Year Private Institutions Public Institutions Number of Students
Receiving GATE Funding
2004/2005 $30 $72 27,214
2005/2006 $70 $110 38,669
2006/2007 $244 $229 57,328
2007/2008 $232 $270 53,437
2008/2009 $240 $335 52,822
2009/2010 $236 $349 53,711
2010/2011 $281 $344 45,040
35Report of the Standing Committee on the GATE Programme (2011)
Figure 3: Effect of Dollar for Dollar on the Income of Households Pursuing TLE
0
Yp
Ym
Yr
Y0d
Y1d
Financial Need
Hp Hm Hr
Income of Households
50% Fees Subsidised
36
Figure 4: Additional Funding Needed by Poorest Households for TLE
YUF
Yr
Financial Need
Income of
Households
Hp Hm
A
Hr
0
Y1d
A
37
Figure 5: Effect of “Oil Windfall” GATE on Income of Households Pursuing TLE
A
B
Hp
Y1d
Hm Hr
0
YGd
Yr
YrG
Income of Households
Financial Need
Ym
Yp
38
39
Table 4: Comparison of Household Expenditure and Access to GATE by Income Group of Head and Household Income Group
Income Group (TT$) Average Size of
Household by Income
Group of Head
% Accessing GATE
Funding by Income
Group of Head
Percentage Distribution
of households by
Household Income Group
Average Monthly
Savings per household
by Household Income
Group
All Income Groups 3.4 0.9 100.0 $1033.60
Less than 1,000 3.8 0.5 2.0 $114.10
1,000-2,999 3.1 0.2 10.4 $298.50
3,000-4,999 3.3 0.3 17.0 $292.90
5,000-6,999 3.4 1 17.2 $503.40
7,000-8,999 3.5 1.8 14.0 $767.50
9,000-10,999 3.4 4.6 11.7 $981.20
11,000-12,999 3.3 2.9 7.6 $1389.50
13,000-14,999 3.3 5.5 5.2 $1706.70
15,000-16,999 3.3 1.5 3.9 $1894.40
17,000-18,999 3.3 7.9 2.9 $2110.60
19,000-20,999 4.1 0 2.1 $2256.80
21,000-22,999 4.1 0 1.5 $3418.00
23,000-24,999 2.9 0 0.9 $3293.80
25,000 and Over 3.2 5 3.6 $5079.90
Source: Trinidad and Tobago Household Budget Survey 2008/09*7,090 Households Participated in this Survey
40
Table 5: Percentage Distribution of Household Member by Type of Government Social Program Accessed by Household Member, Income Area and Urban/Rural Classification
Type of Government Social Programmes
Accessed by Household Member
Income Area Urban/Rural Classificaiton
All Househo
lds Low Middle High Urban Rural
Old Age Pension 7.1 7.1 7.2 6.7 6.7 7.6
Public Assistant 1.8 2.6 1.8 0.8 1.4 2.3
Disability Grant 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6
TCCIP (Smart Card) 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.6 1 2.2
Gate 2.2 1.4 1.9 3.6 2.7 1.4
Thank you
07/04/2014 41
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