Using GIS to Compare Different Uses of Farm Land and its Profitability

Using GIS to Compare Different Uses of Farm Land and its Profitability

Carrie Foster

Feb 26, 2008

What will allow farmers to profit most from their land?

Enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program

(A federal program that pays farmers not to farm their land)

or

Crop Production

Why is this a Concern?

In one word - ETHANOL

• Due to environmental movements and high oil prices there is push from the national level for an increase in ethanol use

• This is increasing the value of corn• Farmers who have previously enrolled land in the

conservation reserve program may now consider planting crops to be harvested on their land

Financially…is it worth it?

What this Project is not…

Although related to the production of ethanol, this project will NOT discuss the following:

• Whether or not there is an overall energy gain from the production of ethanol.

• The agricultural ethics that can be considered when planting crops for reasons other than food.

Background Information

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)

• Program began in 1985• Administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture

(USDA) Farm Service Agency (FSA)• Farmers volunteer to enroll “environmentally sensitive

land” for 10-15 year periods. • Farmers will receive payment for enrolling in program.• In 2006, ~32.5 million acres enrolled in the general CRP

program with payments ranging from $27.14 – $90.90 per acre.

• PA had 53,936 acres enrolled with an average payment of $40.30/acre.

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)

Reference: http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/06rpt.pdf, 2/23/08

CRP Benefits

• Reduction in soil erosion• Reduces sedimentation in streams and lakes• Improves water quality• Support wildlife habitat• Sequesters carbon

• Land will be planted with covers such as trees, grasses and other cover crops

• The environmental benefits of this include:

CRP Ranking

• Amount of reduced soil erosion• Wildlife habitat benefits• Water quality benefits• Air quality benefits• Benefits beyond the contract• Cost

• Enrolling into the CRP is a competitive procedure.• Applicants ranked upon six factors:

Biofuels

• A Biofuel is a “fuel made from plants, organic waste products and various other forms of biomass.”

• Two most common Biofuels in the U.S. are ethanol and biodiesel.

Reference: http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/180, 2/23/08

Top Five Biofuel Producers in 2005

Biofuels

• Potential to reduce air pollution and the greenhouse gases being released into atmosphere

• Benefits farm incomes and rural development• Reduces dependence on foreign oil• Biofuels are renewable

• Why the push for Biofuels?

Ethanol

• Created from sugars found in grains• A common mix of ethanol/gasoline contains 10% ethanol• Encouraged by a $0.51 per gallon tax credit when it is mixed

with gasoline (~5.1 cents/gallon of gas produced)• Specific automobiles are able run on mixtures containing

85% ethanol (E85 gasoline)

Reference: http://www.ethanol.org/index.php?id=37&parentid=8, 2/23/08

Which is Better for Ethanol Production…

Cornor

Switchgrass?

Corn Production

• In the US, about 92% of the corn harvested each year is for the corn grain = ~71 million acres

• Between 2000 and 2006 grain yields ranged from 129 to 160 bushels/acre

• Averages about 4 tons/acre/year

• About 80% of corn production is in rotation with another crop

• National average of fertilizer use:

Fertilizer National Average % of Crop Fertilized

Nitrogen 138 lbs/ac 96%

Phosphorus 58 lb/ac 81%

Potassium 84 lb/ac 65%

Reference: http://bioweb.sungrant.org/Technical/Biomass+Resources/Agricultural+Resources/Existing+Crops/Food+and+Feed+Grains/Corn/Default.htm, 2/23/08

Reference: http://bioweb.sungrant.org/Technical/Biomass+Resources/Agricultural+Resources/Existing+Crops/Food+and+Feed+Grains/Corn/Default.htm, 2/23/08

Corn for Biofuels

• As of today corn is the main feedstock for the ethanol production in the U.S.

• The grain from the corn is the main component that is currently used for ethanol production

• In 2006 about 2.15 billion bushels of corn, about 18% of the nation’s corn crop, were used for ethanol production

Switchgrass – General Information

• Can be found east of the Rocky Mountains from Canada to Mexico

• It is a perennial grass - replant about every 10 years• Standard farm equipment is used to plant and harvest• In some cases it can be harvested two times a year• Deep root system is good for

erosion control and improving

soil quality.

Reference: http://www.iowaswitchgrass.com/benefits~onfarmbenefits.html, 2/21/2008

Switchgrass Production

• Not currently produced on a large scale• An average of 5.2 to 8.45 dry ton/acre/year were

produced on research plots. • Three years is needed to reach potential maximum yield

– First year = 20-35% of mature yield– Second year = 60-75% of mature yield

• National average fertilizer use:Fertilizer National Average

Nitrogen (after first year) 50 lbs/ac

Phosphorus (only if needed) 15-20 lb/ac

Potassium (only if needed) 25 lb/ac

Reference: http://bioweb.sungrant.org/Technical/Biomass+Resources/Agricultural+Resources/New+Crops/Herbaceous+Crops/Switchgrass/Default.htm, 2/23/08

Switchgrass for Biofuels

• Switchgrass can also be turned into ethanol (cellulosic ethanol).

• This ethanol is different than ethanol made from corn because it is created from cell walls, not the grain.

• Benefits – Can be productive across a wide geographic region– Productive on marginal lands– Low water and nutrient requirements– Positive environmental benefits– Better yield (than corn) per hectare– Produces more liters of ethanol (than corn) per hectare

Ethanol Production Comparisons

Corn Switchgrass

Land used 358 million acres 247 million acres

Production 17% of 2003 gasoline needs

20% of 2003 gasoline needs

Reference: http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0107-switchgrass.html, 2/23/08

Reference: Rajagopal, D., S.E. Sexton, D. Roland-Holst and D. Zilberman, “Challenge of Biofuel: Filling the Tank without Emptying the Stomach?” Environmental Research Letters 30 November 2007. 12 January 2008 <http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/-search=47081175.1/1748->

Objectives and Methodology

Project Objectives

• Study PA land currently enrolled in Conservation Reserve Program

• Determine profitability of farmland while in CRP• Determine profitability of farmland if used to produce

switchgrass• Compare the profits to identify any trends across the

state

GIS Analysis

• ESRI’s ArcView 9.0• Spatial Analyst extension• Layers for Analysis

– Land Use/Land Cover– Soil Ratings for Plant Growth (SRPG) Layer– CRP Layer

Layers

LULC layer – 30 m pixels

Soils SRPG data – vector

30 m pixels in the LULC layer set the resolution for the analysis

Vector data will need to be converted into raster data

GIS Analysis

Once the layers are set up and turned to raster grids:

• Select agricultural lands from the LULC layer• Select agricultural lands within CRP (or those

that meet CRP criteria, if necessary)• Stratify based upon SRPG values• Assign dollar values to productivity classes• Adjust dollar value based upon average

production costs• Compare those values to the values of the CRP

to determine which will be more profitable

Results

The final results can be used by:• Farmers who have a CRP lease expiring and need to

decide if they should stay in the program or farm the land

• USDA/FSA to see how their payments compare to profits if land was farmed

• Other states to compare the profit made from crop production when compared to CRP rates

Project Timeline

Feburary 26, 2008 – Present project proposal

Late March – Submit abstract for conference

July 16th – 18th, 2008 – Present project and results at the NE Soil Science Society of America conference in Montreal, Canada

References

American Coalition for Ethanol. 12 February 2008 http://www.ethanol.org/index.php?id=34&parentid=8

SunGrant BioWeb. Switchgrass. 10 February 2008 http://bioweb.sungrant.org/Technical/Biomass+Resources/Agricultural+Resources/New+Crops/Herbaceous+Crops/Switchgrass/Default.htm

SunGrant BioWeb. Corn. 10 February 2008 http://bioweb.sungrant.org/Technical/Biomass+Resources/Agricultural+Resources/Existing+Crops/Food+and+Feed+Grains/Corn/Default.htm

USDA Farm Service Agency. Program Fact Sheet. June 2006. 10 January 2008 http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/newsReleases?area=newsroom&subject=landing&topic=pfs&newstype=prfactsheet&type=detail&item=pf_20060601_consv_en_crpcsup06.html

Questions?