Utah 2050: Alternative Futures Pam Perlich Ross Reeve Utah Long Term Projections Program...

Utah 2050: Alternative Futures

Pam Perlich Ross Reeve

Utah Long Term Projections Program

Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget

May 13, 1999

Contact Information

• Pam Perlich (801) 538-1537 pperlich@gov.state.ut.us

• Ross Reeve (801) 538-1545 rreeeve@gov.state.ut.us

• Web Site: www.qget.state.ut.us/projections

Regional Scenarios• Recent scenario analysis for Envision Utah has taken our

1997 UPED regional baseline and investigated different small area allocations of this baseline with other methods and models.

• The present study examines alternative demographic and economic paths for the State.

• These regional growth scenarios are a work in progress, not a new official baseline.

• We explore various possible future paths for the State’s population and economy.

Method & Timeframe

• Utilize the State’s long term simulation model: Utah Process Economic and Demographic Projection Model

• Identify high, medium, and low time paths for model exogenous variables and parameters: economic growth, fertility, life expectancy, and labor force participation

• Generate alternative growth scenarios to 2050

Long Term Simulations• This ceterus paribus analysis approach

acknowledges the uncertainty in the projections and identifies the potential range of outcomes.

• The method and time frame used here are standard practice for analogous Federal policy analysis simulations.

• GAO: The use of long term economic and demographic simulations can “help establish a long-term framework linking budget planning and long- term fiscal policy goals.”

Long Term Projections

• Office of Management & Budget: 2070

• Congressional Budget Office: 2070

• General Accounting Office: 2050

• Social Security Administration: 2070

• Bureau of the Census: 2100

• United Nations: 2050

Utah Process Economic & Demographic Model (UPED)

Economic Base Model

Economic Base Model

Cohort Component Model

Cohort Component Model

Integrated Economic and Demographic ProjectionsIntegrated Economic and Demographic Projections

UPED Model General Flowchart

Population in Year t-1

Age & Survive; Births & Non- Employment Related In-Migration

Adjusted Natural Increase Population

Non-Employment Related Out-Migration & Employment Related Net In-Migration in Year t

Population in Year t

Labor Market

Population Dependent Job

Opportunities in Year t

Labor Force in Year t

Total Job Opportunities in Year t

Basic Job Opportunities in Year t

Recursive

IterativeDirect Model Components

Inputs & Outputs

ScenariosHigh Fertility

Low Fertility

Base CaseBase Case High Basic GrowthSlow Basic Growth

High Labor Force Participation

Low Labor Force Participation

High Survival

Low Survival

Ceterus Paribus Around the Base Case

Thirteen Scenarios• Base Case: Medium fertility, mortality, economic

growth, and labor force participation rates • Eight Ceterus Paribus Change Cases: Around base

case, as illustrated in previous slide• Zero Migration: Economic Growth just sufficient so

there is zero net employment related in-migration• Zero Economic Growth: No growth in basic (export

sector) employment• High Population Case: High Fertility, Survival,

Economic Growth, & Low Labor Force Participation• Low Population Case: Low Fertility, Survival,

Economic Growth, & High Labor Force Participation

Population Scenarios: Band Around 4.0 to 5.0 Million in 2050

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048

Base Hi Surv Lo Surv Hi Fert Lo Fert

Hi LFPR Lo LFPR Hi Bas Gr Lo Bas Gr Zero MigZero Gr Hi-Hi Lo-Lo

Population: Rates of Employment Growth Define Extremes

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base Hi Surv Lo Surv Hi Fert Lo Fert

Hi LFPR Lo LFPR Hi Bas Gr Lo Bas Gr Zero MigZero Gr Hi-Hi Lo-Lo

Employment Growth Scenarios• Employment growth is the driver of the long run

population path -- it sets the extremes for total population in this analysis.

• These employment scenarios are based upon analyses of the State’s fifty year employment history.

• The future employment paths include the State’s short run forecast through 2000.

• The long-run employment scenarios start in the year 2001.

Five Employment Growth Cases• High Growth: Increasing linear increments to employment

• Medium Growth: Employment growth sufficient to generate cumulative net in-migration of 18% of the population increase from 1999 - 2050

• Low Growth: Symmetrical employment growth with high employment around medium path

• Zero In-Migration: Employment growth that generates zero net migration

• Zero Basic Employment Growth: Constant basic employment level through time

High Employment Scenario: Linear IncrementsNon-Farm Payroll Employment

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Historical Linear Increment Low Conf Interval

Upper Conf Interval Linear Level Exponential Level

Medium Employment Case

18%

82%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Shares ofPopulation Change

Natural Increase

Net In-Migration

• Net in-migration contributed 18% of population increase from 1948 - 1998.

• Medium Case: Employment growth is sufficient to generate the same relative component contributions for 1999 - 2050.

Low Employment Growth: Create Symmetrical Low Path (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hi Empl Growth Base Case Lo Empl Growth

Zero Employment Growth(TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hi Empl Growth Base Case Lo Empl Growth Zero Empl Growth

Zero Migration Employment Growth (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hi Base Lo Zero Empl Growth Zero Mig

Employment Paths (TOTAL EMPLOYMENT: Non-Farm Payroll, Farm, & Proprietors)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hi Base Lo Zero Empl Growth Zero Mig

Population Paths for Five Employment Scenarios

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr

Births: Five Employment Scenarios

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr

Deaths: Five Employment Scenarios

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr

Residual Migration: Five Employment Scenarios

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base Hi Empl Gr Lo Empl Gr Zero Mig Zero Empl Gr

Cumulative Components of Population Change: 1999 - 2050 for Employment Scenarios

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

Natural Increase Net Migration

Base Hi Empl Growth Lo Empl Growth

Zero Mig Zero Empl Growth

Three Fertility Cases

• Low Fertility: Converge to projected national total fertility rate by 2005

• Medium Fertility: Constant at 1998 rates - 2.6 for Utah vs. about 2.0 for U.S.

• High Fertility: Maintain the difference in fertility rates (observed in 1990) between Utah and the U.S. with the national projections from 1999 to 2050.

Historical and Projected Total Fertility Rates for Utah and the U.S.

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017 2027 2037 2047

US UT Medium UT High UT Low

Population: Three Fertility Scenarios

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base Hi Fertility Lo Fertility

Cumulative Population Change 1999-2050: Fertility Scenarios

HighFertility

BaseLow

Fertility

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Natural Increase Net Migration

Persons per Household: Three Fertility Cases

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Low Fertility Base HighFertility

Median Age: Three Fertility Cases

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

37.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High Fertility Base Low Fertility

School Age Population (5-17): Three Fertility Cases

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High Fertility Base Low Fertility

Number of Persons Less Than 18 Years Old per 100 Persons 18 to 65 Years Old: Three Fertility Cases

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Low Fertility Base High Fertility

Number of Persons 65 Years & Older per 100 Persons 18 to 65 Years Old: Three Fertility Cases

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Low Fertility Base High Fertility

Total Dependency Ratio: Three Fertility Cases Number of Persons Less Than 18 Plus those 65 Years and

Older Per 100 Persons 18 to 65 Years Old

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Low Fertility Base High Fertility

Survival Scenarios

• Low: Survival Rates and life expectancy held constant at 1990 rates

• Medium: Converge to US rates by 2050

• High: Maintain mean difference in life expectancy observed in 1970, 1980, and 1990 over projection interval. Projected US is Census middle series.

Life Expectancy at Birth: High Survival Case

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female

Life Expectancy at Birth: Medium Survival Case

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female

Life Expectancy at Birth: Low Survival Case

65

70

75

80

85

90

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Utah Male U.S.Male Utah Female U.S.Female

Population: Three Survival Cases

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base High Survival Low Survival

85+ Population: Three Survival Cases

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base High Survival Low Survival

85+ Population as a Share of Total Population: Three Survival Cases

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Base High Survival Low Survival

Labor Force Participation Rate Cases

• Low Case: 5% less than the medium case

• Medium Case: Maintain relative differences with US series.

• High Case: 5% greater than the medium case

Utah Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group: 1990 & 2020 Medium LFPR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-61 62-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Male 2020 Female 2020 Male 1990 Female 1990

Net Migration: Three LFPR Cases

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048

Base High LFPR Low LFPR

Base Case: Natural Increase & Residual Migration

-15,000

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048

Residual Migration Natural Increase

Utah & US Births: 1930-1998

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

US Utah

US Baby Boom:

1946-1964

Utah Annual Average Amount of Population Change by Decade: Base Case

20,41016,600

40,800

25,510

43,59849,912 47,423 47,497

61,259 60,159

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

Utah Annual Average Amount of Population Change by Decade: Base Case

19,142 17,77025,645

29,206 29,49636,099

39,900 42,90347,103

50,9121,268

-1,170

15,155

-3,696

14,102

13,813 7,5234,594

14,156 9,248

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

Natural Increase Residual Migration

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Male Female

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

14-Oct

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+ Male Female

Utah: 1990 Base Case: 2050

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Male Female

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

14-Oct

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+ Male Female

Low Fertility: 2050 Base Case: 2050

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Male Female

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

14-Oct

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+ Male Female

Zero Migration: 2050 Base Case: 2050

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Male Female

250,000 150,000 50,000 50,000 150,000 250,000

0- 4

5- 9

14-Oct

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+ Male Female

Zero Basic Growth: 2050 Base Case: 2050

Average Annual Percent Change in Population for Decade: 1900 - 2050 (Base Case)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

US UT

Utah & US Median Age of the Population: Base Case

3335.7

37.2 37.6 38.5 38.6 38.1

26.227.7

29.3 30.5 30.9 31.3 31.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

US Utah

Utah Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050 (Base Case)

7666 67

55 54 54 54 55 55

1413 16

14 14 19 23 25 26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

<18 DR 65+ DR90

79 79 828270 69

73 77

US Dependency Ratios: 1970 - 2050

6146 42 42 39 40 43 43 44

18

19 20 21 2128

36 37 36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

<18 DR 65+ DR7965

80 80

62 63 6068

79

Summary• Utah has higher rates of economic and population growth,

fertility, and survival than the nation. • Growth in the demand for Utah’s exports and the associated

increases in employment have the greatest effect on the state’s population size.

• Fertility, while affecting population size, has its greatest effects on age composition, average household size, and the components of population change.

• Survival has its greatest effects on the age composition, particularly on the number and share of the elderly population.

• Changing labor force participation rates act as a substitute for employment-related migration.