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Water & Vulnerability: Global Environmental Change and the Southern African Region Anton Earle & Anthony Turton African Water Issues Research Unit (AWIRU) University of Pretoria Paper presented at the SAVI Workshop Maputo June 19-21, 2003. Variables Impacting Water Resources. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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. AWIRU
Water & Vulnerability: Global Environmental Change and
the Southern African Region
Anton Earle & Anthony TurtonAfrican Water Issues Research Unit (AWIRU)
University of Pretoria
Paper presented at the SAVI Workshop Maputo June 19-21, 2003.
. AWIRU
Variables Impacting Water Resources
4. Social Adaptive Capacity
3. Population growth – impact
2. Infrastructure (Dams)
1. Climatic Variability
. AWIRU
Variables Impacting Water Resources
Social Adaptive Capacity
Population growth – impact
Infrastructure (Dams)
Climatic Variability
Global Climate Change
HIV / AIDS
. AWIRU
Precipitation produces little runoff in southern African river basins
. AWIRU
Natural Climatic Variability
• Typically only 10 % of MAP available as MAR in Sn African river basins.
• Fluctuations in rainfall have a disproportionately large impact on river flow rates. eg – a 10 % drop in rainfall can lead to a 20 – 30 % drop in stream flow.
• Droughts and floods often follow each other consecutively – each presenting different threats.
• Evapotranspiration is 2 to 10 X MAP.
. AWIRU
Annual Inflows at Mohembo – Okavango River
Per
cen
tag
e o
f m
ean
an
nu
al i
nfl
ow
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Time (Years)
5-yearMovingaverage
Max.: 16,145 x 106 m3
Mean: 9,863 x 106 m3
Min.: 5,321 x 106 m3
. AWIRU
Responses to variability
• Large-scale intra & inter basin transfer schemes constructed.
• RSA at 539 large dams is ranked 11th in the world & Zimbabwe 20th with 213 (World Commission on Dams).
• 50 % of dams in Africa are for irrigation.
• 20 % for water supply.
• 1 % for flood control.
. AWIRU
Ecosystems Under Pressure
• Large-scale dams & water transfers pose a threat to eco-systems.
• Communities dependant on the ecosystem services are most at risk.
. AWIRU
Population DynamicsWater availability in the SADC - current & projected
(Ashton, 2002)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Cu
bic
M /
p /
yr
2000
2025
. AWIRU
Population DynamicsWater availability in the arid SADC - current & projections
(Ashton, 2002)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Botsw
ana
Leso
tho
Mal
awi
Namibi
a
South
Afri
ca
Tanza
nia
Zimba
bwe
Cu
bic
M /
p /
yr
2000
2025
Severe water scarcity
Pop. Growth rates adjusted for country HIV / AIDS prevalence in 2000
. AWIRU
Population Dynamics
• Water demand is likely to increase – even if population growth is low or zero.
• Communities previously without water need to be supplied.
• Waste & pollution is likely to increase, placing stress on water quality.
• HIV / AIDS reduces the ability of households to pay for water services.
. AWIRU
Population Dynamics
• Marginalised people resort to cultivating land unsuitable for agriculture – possibly causing erosion, eg Lesotho.
• Large-scale de-vegetation could possibly lead to a change in the local climate as reflectance increases.
• Refugees frequently settle on riverbanks – facing the risk of floods, eg Jukskei River in Johannesburg.
. AWIRU
Social Adaptive Capacity
• A scarcity of a first-order resource (water) can be mitigated by the presence of second-order (social) resources.
• Water resources can be used in the most productive activity, frequently industry.
• Staple foods, such as grain can be imported – saving 1000 tonnes of local water for every tonne imported (virtual water imports).
. AWIRU
Social Adaptive Capacity
• A scarcity of a first-order resource (water) can be mitigated by the presence of second-order (social) resources.
Hydrological Cycle
Surface & Ground Water
Soil Water
InfiltrationWater used for 60% of world food production (38% of world’s water reserves)
Water for domestic & industrial use
Augmented by virtual water
Augmented by inter-basin transfers and
desalination
$
$$$
FREE
Med to High Cost
First-order Resources
Second-order Resources
Transpiration
Water available to a country for food production
Soil
. AWIRU
Social Adaptive Capacity
Arid Southern Africa Cereal Trends
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Year
To
nn
es
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
% R
elia
nce
on
im
po
rts
Production
Reliance
Cereal production & reliance in RSA, Nam, Bot & Zim – FAO, 2003)
. AWIRU
Transboundary Waters
• No evidence of countries going to war over water over the past century.
• 70 % of interactions over water between states have been in the realm of cooperation (agreements, regimes, data-sharing, treaties etc).
• Potential for conflict over water increases as scale decreases.
. AWIRU
Sn Africa Shared Rivers• 261 shared river
basins in the world.• 17 deemed to be at
risk of conflict by 2012.
• Six in Sn Africa: Orange, Okavango, Cunene, Incomati, Zambezi, Limpopo.(see Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database, OSU)
. AWIRU
Impact of Non-Cooperation
• Destabilisation of the region resulting from a negative peace.
• No development takes place as the various riparian states cannot agree on equitable sharing of water resources.
• Development which does take place is uncoordinated, with a dubious legal standing.
. AWIRU
Benefit Sharing
• Most water law based on the concept of “fair & equitable share”.
• The aim should be to move away from water sharing & towards benefit sharing (water included).
• Needs a high degree of trust & cooperation between states, as well as social adaptive capacity within states.
. AWIRU
The Okavango River Basin -Where Are We Now?
What is the Place of Policy?
•Treaties & conventions• Population
growth & demography
• Perceptions & values
• Spontaneous human activities
• Climate variability & oscillations
• The annual flood pulse
• Tectonic activity• Soil types & topography
• Climate change
Natural factors no human
control
3 National Governments
Programmes& policies
OKACOM
BasinManagement
Today’s Capacity to Cope
Ecology ofOkavango
River Basin& its
ecosystemservices
National water resources
WetDry
Hu
man
cap
acity
to a
dap
t
Weak human resource base
Strong human resource base
Botswana
Angola
Namibia
Fast-acting natural
pressures
• Pressure groups• Vested interests
• Demands for jobs, schools, etc.
• Epidemics – HIV/AIDS
Fast-acting human pressures
• Droughts• Floods
• Epidemics
Human factors slow to change or hard to influence
There are various natural and human pressures influencing decision-making & policy formulation within the Okavango Basin. Some of these are fast-acting, with a direct impact on the governments of the riparian states, while others are very slow-acting with almost no human control possible – these present opportunities and challenges to the populations of the states. The ability of a state to adapt to its situation is dictated by factors such as economic development, institutional environment education levels and health of the population.
OKACOM – as the institution responsible for the sustainable management of the Basin - faces the challenge of accommodating the different view points, values, goals, needs and desires of the various stakeholders as they formulate and implement policy.
“Where We Are Now” is a collaborative effort of delegates attending the Green Cross International, Water for Peace, Okavango Project’s second workshop in Gobabeb, Namibia. The delegates included OKACOM Commissioners from each of the riparian states, NGOs, local government representatives, academics and researchers.
For further information visit:
www.up.ac.za/academic/libarts/polsci/awiru or www.gci.ch
Project was made possible through the kind funding from Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Department of Development Cooperation, The Netherlands and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden
Okavango Delta - Botswana
Flow over Namibian territory
Catchment in the Angolan highlands
The Okavango River extends from the highlands of Angola, flows through Namibia’s
Caprivi region & ends in the sands of the Kalahari Desert.
Produced by AWIRU for the 3rd World Water Forum, Kyoto Japan, March 2003
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