Vehicles and GHG Emissions Transportation and Carbontransctr/pdf/Richard Watts, April 17,...

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Transportation and Carbon

Rubenstein School of the Environment and Natural Resources

April 17, 2008

Richard Watts, Research Director, University Transportation Research Center

Vehicles and GHG Emissions

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University of VermontTransportation Research Center

Picture Description / Source

• Founded in Fall 2006 (SAFETEA LU)

• One of 10 National Transportation Centers

• Theme: Sustainable Systems and Advanced Technologies for Northern Communities

• Multi-disciplinary • Transportation research

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Graduate Students• Research Assistantships• Transportation Scholars

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Research Projects on Campus

• 25 Faculty, UTC and Graduate Student Projects

Research Project Categories• Carbon Reduction & Sustainable Systems• Environmental Justice & Communications• Travel Management & Travel Behavior• Infrastructure & Transportation Financing

• May 12, Davis Center 4-5 Open House

• http://www.uvm.edu/~transctr/

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VERMONT CLEAN CITIES COALITION

Strategies to reduce petroleum consumption

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Outline

• Transportation Energy Use• Carbon Footprint• Public Policy Solutions • Vermont Focus

Questions and Comments

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US Petroleum Supply

Source: Greene, Leiby, Patterson, Plotkin and Singh, 2007

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U.S. Oil Use By Sector

Transportation69%

Industrial23%

Residential7%

Electricity1%

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005Data are for 2005

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Current and Potential Car Fleet in India and China

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13

513

640

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

India

China

Millions

Vehicle Fleet Size for Industrialized Vehicle Ownership Level

Size of Vehicle Fleet (1999)

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Two Trends to Watch

1) Tata Motors Ltd. of India will build a five-seat car that it will bring to market for around $2,200 (Autoblog.com, March 4, 2008).

2) Declining interest in car ownership among Japanese young (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 29, 2008).

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Cost of Gasoline and Oil Today?

$ $

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Vermont Gas Prices Rising

Vermont Avg. Annual Gas & Diesel Prices

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Calendar Year

Pri

ce P

er G

allo

n

Gas Diesel

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Vermont Gas Sales Flat

Transportation Fuel Sales in Vermont

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Calendar Year

Mill

ions

of G

allo

ns

GasDieselBiodiesel

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Total Annual Spending on Gas and Diesel

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Calendar Year

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs S

pent

Total Spent

Gas Sales Flat – Costs Sharply Higher

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Cost of Vehicle Ownership

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Total $12,465 $16,963 $9,246 $3,219 $7,717

Table-10 Vermont’s Transportation Revenue Shortfall Analysis 2006-2025

Years Needs Revenues Shortfall(Inflation) 2% 5% 2% 5%

($ Millions)

2006 - 2010 $2,670 $2,835 $2,101 $569 $7342011 - 2015 $2,948 $3,618 $2,127 $821 $1,4912016 - 2020 $3,254 $4,617 $2,371 $883 $2,2462021 - 2025 $3,593 $5,893 $2,647 $946 $3,246

Transportation Funding Shortfall

Source: VTrans LRTBP Working Paper 3

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Does Price Make A Difference?

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Automobile Dominance in Vermont

2000 Journey to Work Mode Split - Vermont

Drove alone75.5%

Worked at home5.7%

Walked5.7%

Public Trans0.7%

Carpooled12.0%

Other0.4%

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Vermonters Driving More

Source: 2006 VLTP

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Driving Alone Increases

Source: 2006 VLTP

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Figure credit: Davies, J. and C. Facanha.

US GHG Emissions by Sector

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Transportation GHG Emissions Increasing

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GHG Emissions by Vehicle Type

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Average Gasoline Consumption for New Vehicles, United States, 1972-2006 (miles per gallon)

10

15

20

25

30

35

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

CarsLight TrucksAverage

Source: Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm

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GHG Emissions in Vermont

Source: DPS Utility Facts, 2006, updated August 2007

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Vermont Towns & Vehicle GHG Emissions

Source: VPIRG from US Census 2000 Journey to Work Data

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Vermont Is Aging

Source: Art Woolf: Vermont aging slides PPT, Jan 2007

Old Vermont

6080

100120140160180200220240

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Over 65

Total Population

6 to 18

20 - 65

Source: Art Woolf, PPT Jan. 2007

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Obesity Epidemic and VMT

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Jan. 03

- Unlimited Access Agreement Begins

Aug. 04

-Information Packets Circulated on Campus and in Dorms

-Letters Sent Home to First-Year Students

Aug. 05

-Information Advertised in Orientation Packets

Sep. 05

-Unlimited Access Advertisement in Campus Directory

Oct. 05

-Postcard with Info Sent to Faculty/ Staff Through CATMA

UVM Unlimited Access Bus Ridership

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10000

15000

20000

25000

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Jan.

06

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UVM Seniors Use Transit LessPercentage of Undergraduate Riders by

Status (Fall 2005)Senior, 358,

12%

Junior, 375, 13%

Sophomore, 681, 24%

Freshmen, 1459, 51%

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A Public Policy Solution Framework

• Increase Vehicle EfficiencyCAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.)

• Low Carbon FuelsCalifornia, Europe

• Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT)Public transit, TOD, TDM,

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Driving Behavior Increases Efficiency

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Can Consumer Awareness Influence Driving Behavior?

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Electric Cars

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Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

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37walkscore.com

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A Public Policy Solution Framework

• Increase Vehicle EfficiencyCAFE, Co2 regulations, Alt Fuels (PHEVs, AFVs etc.)

• Low Carbon FuelsCalifornia, Europe

• Reduce VMT (particularly SOV VMT)Public transit, TOD, TDM,

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Governor’s Commission on Climate Change

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Vermont Government Approach

“The miles traveled aren’t the problem; the way we traverse them is. As gas prices climb, many are taking a second look at fuel efficient cars and trucks and alternatives to single occupancy trips. That’s why I propose Go Vermont, a three-pronged approach that provides cost-effective transportation alternatives, promotes the development and availability of cleaner burning biofuels and pushes for increased vehicle emissions standards.”

-- Gov. Douglas State of the State, Jan 10 2008

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Vermont Transportation Strategies

Policies to reduce emissions from transportation fall into three categories:

• 1. improving vehicle fuel efficiency,• 2. reducing the carbon intensity of fuels, and• 3. reducing activity rates, either absolutely or

relative to the baseline.

-- Vermont Climate Change Plan, Dec. 2007

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Vermont Climate Action Plan Policies

4343

Reduce CO2

Reduce CO2/VMT (A1) Reduce VMT (A2)

Passenger Vehicles (A11) Freight (A12) Land Use (A21) Transportation Alternatives(A22)

Fiscal Tools & Incentives(A23)

Low GHG Tailpipe Standards (A111)

Feebates (A112)

Tax Incentives for Efficient Vehicles (A113)

Carbon Tax (A114)

Procurement of Low GHG/Alt Fuel Vehicles (A115)

Biofuel Standards (A116)

Vehicle Scrappage (A117)

Driver Training (A118)

Anti-Idling By-Laws (A119)

Speed Reduction Programs (A1110)

Traffic Signal Improvements/ITS/Traffic flow (A1111)

Technology & Maintenance(A1112)

Hybrid and ElectricVehicles (A1113)

Hydrogen & Fuel CellVehicles (A1114)

Truck StopElectrification (A121)

Vessel Electrification (A122)

Retrofits and CleanFuels for HD Trucks

(A123)

Transit Bus Retrofits(A124)

Intermodal FreightInitiatives (A125)

Locomotive Technologies(Hybrids, Fuel Cells)

(A126)

Locomotive IdleReduction Technologies

(A127)

Transit OrientedDevelopment (A211)

Brownfield Development(A212)

Pedestrian-OrientedDesign (A213)

Smart School Siting (A214)

Permitting & Zoning Reform (A215)

Transit Service Improvements (A221)

Light Rail Transit (A222)

Bus Rapid Transit (A223)

Bike InfrastructureDevelopment (A224)

Car Pooling Organizations (A225)

Targeted InfrastructureFunding (A231)

Road/CongestionPricing (A232)

Commuter Incentives(A233)

Pay-As-You-DriveInsurance (A234)

Green Mortgages(A235)

Fuel Tax (A236)

Cap & Trade forAutomakers/Regions

(A237)

Renewable PortfolioStandard for Fuel Mixes

(A238)

Smart Growth Programs (A216)

Open Space Programs (A217)

Municipal Parking Programs (A239)