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Volcanological supersite in Iceland : Importance of the FUTUREVOLC
project at European and global level
Sue Loughlin, BGS and FUTUREVOLC partners
EU/Supersite community• European Supersites• GEO/GEOSS• EU FP7 projects (e.g. MIA-VITA, VUELCO…)• EU FP7 / GMES / Copernicus (e.g. EVOSS)• EPOS• CEOS• WEZARD (meteorology community)• Other Supersites (e.g. Hawaii)
Cost of aviation disruption 2010
UK loss £466 millionTotal global GDP impact $5 billion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Thurs15 April
Fri 16April
Sat 17April
Sun 18April
Mon 19April
Tue 20April
Wed 21April
% decline from same day previous week
Source : EurocontrolSource : Eurocontrol
100,000 flights cancelled7 million passengers affected
Europe, $2,632
MEAF, $591
Americas, $957
Asia, $517Million $US
Source : Oxford Economics
How will FUTUREVOLC help?
• Accessible infrastructure• Monitoring and analysis – multidisciplinary,
timely, uncertainties• Research into operations (source
parameters, validation)• Communication : within the project
in Iceland trans-boundary
• Key end-users are within the project
Monitoring and analysis
Effective monitoring and analysis• Ground, Air, Space-based• Real-time and near real-time multi-parametric data acquisition
and analysis• Better understanding of physical processes• Operational scientific decision-making
Sigrun Hreinsdottir
MODIS
1. Monitoring capacity
Multiparametric monitoringData managementWeb system
Improved monitoringTimely recognition of
precursorsShort-term forecasting
2: The First Model Run
Source parameters for historical eruptions
Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson
3. Alerts and Early Warning
4: Model source parameters
Mass eruption rateGrain size distributionAtmospheric interactionGas composition
Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson
5: Validation / data assimilation
Validation of EO dataAlgorithm developmentImproved measurements and samplingData assimilation for models
7 May 2010 (Simon Carn, OMI)
Research into operations
Building on what works…
Aviation colour codes VONA
Near real-time dataWebsite reports
… and others
Icelandic community
National and international media
IAVWICAO
Aviation colour codes / VONA
Research into operationsFUTUREVOLC advisory group?Access to data and analysisChallenges of real-time source parametersData assimilationFUTUREVOLC team comprises operational ‘End-users’
End-users forensic analysis (communication) 2010, 2011
• Civil Protection• Aviation sector• Airlines• Met Services (including VAACs)• Scientists • Geological Surveys• Government departments
Communication
Communication
• Questionnaire to key end-users• Forensic analysis• Best practice in trans-border communication
Planning and preparation
• Iceland, Europe, the rest of the world have different needs, handled at national level
• Airborne hazards• Volcanic ash (and other aerosols such as sulphates,
PM2.5, PM10), gas• Risks to various sectors• Impacts to aviation, human and animal health,
agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems etc• Planning and preparation under uncertainty• Communication and early warning critical
UK operations and preparedness
Higher Education Institutes
UK and Iceland Communication – first 24 hrs
FAAM ARSF
Atmospheric operations
The scientific expertise
The decision-makers
Higher Education Institutes
Courtesy: NCAS
From http://www.geostudy.zoomshare.com
Stromboli online
Eruption scenariosIceland can produce eruptions of different:
scalesstyles
eruptive productsdurations
Hazards include:Volcanic ash
Other aerosol (e.g. Sulphate)Volcanic gases
Glacier floods (jokulhlaups)Lahars
Lava flowsPyroclastic density currents
Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruptuion
Schmidt et al., 2011, PNAS, 108 (38), 15710-15715
Laki-type eruption
National contingency planning
Aviation risk reduction (reduced losses)
• Risk factors:Hazard likelihoodMonitoring capacity (real-time and near real-
time) ‘First model run’ source term parameters ‘Source term’ model parametersEarly warning (effective system)Communication (research-IMO-VAAC-Aviation)
Volcano Observatory Best Practice workshops
• 80+ volcano observatories2011 Short term forecasting2013 Communication
Global Volcano Model
• A growing international network that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. It will provide systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk on global, regional and local scales.It will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences.
FUTUREVOLC in Montserrat
NERC : Strengthening Resilience in Volcanic Areas (STREVA)
Summary• Research into operations• Trans-border hazards and risks• Risk reduction • Increased resilience• Best practice in data accessibility/multiparametric
monitoring• Best practice in communication• Responding to stakeholder needs• A unique opportunity…
FUTUREVOLC
Thor Thordarson
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