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Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach
Polly Ericksen
GECAFS Science Officer
17 May 2006
A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to
environmental stress.
GECAFS Vision
Food Security
• exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.(definition from the World Food Summit)
• is determined by multiple factors.
FOOD UTILISATION
Components of Food Security& Key Elements
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability• Allocation• Preference
• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY
• Production• Distribution• Exchange
7
12
Food security is a function of multiple stresses
Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change
Generally food systems comprise a number of human activities involved in…..
• Producing food
• Processing & packaging food
• Distribution & retailing food
• Consuming food
Trends / transformations in food systems
• On the production side: yield growth, technology advances and concentration, smallholder vs large farms, env. concerns
• Processing, packing and distribution: long, involved food chains, standardization, concentration and globalization
• Consumption: price declines, dietary transition, urbanization, CNCDs, etc.
Trends in Food Systems
“Traditional” Food Systems “Modern” Food Systems
Employment in food sector In production of raw commodities In food manufacturing and retail
Supply Chain Short Long with many food miles and lots of nodes
Typical food consumed Basic staples Processed food with a brand name; More animal products
Purchased food bought from Small, local shop or market Large supermarket chain
Nutritional issues Under-nutrition Chronic dietary diseases
Main source of national food shocks
Poor rains; production shocks International price and trade problems
Main source of household food shocks
Poor rains; production shocks Income shocks leading to food poverty
Environmental concerns Soil degradation, land clearing Nutrient loading, chemical runoff, water demands, energy requirements
Source: Adapted from Maxwell and Slater, 2004.
“Global” Environmental Change
Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities
Land cover & soils
Atmospheric composition
Climate variability & means
Water availability & quality
For example changes in:
Nitrogen availability & cycling
Biodiversity
Sea currents & salinity
Sea level
Why a “systems” approach?
• Lends a generic view – food systems underpin food security but in multiple ways
• Link multiple activities to multiple outcomes
• Incorporate dynamism and feedbacks• Identify key processes in spite of the
complexity• Allow for structure (determinism) and
agency
GEC – Food System Interactions
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing
Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing
Consuming
SocioeconomicDRIVERS
Changes in:Demography, Economics,
Socio-political context, Cultural context
Science & Technology
Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental
Security, and other societal interests
FoodAvailability
FoodUtilisation
FoodAccess
Environm.Security
Social Interests
DRIVERSInteractions
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity,Sea level
ÔNaturalÕDRIVERS
e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles
Socio-economic feedbacks
Environmental feedbacks
Food Security
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability• Allocation• Preference
• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY
• Production• Distribution• Exchange
Environmental Security /
Natural Capital• Ecosystems
stocks, flows• Ecosystem
services• Access to
natural capital
Food Systems Researchintegrates Food System Activities and Outcomes
Social Welfare• Income• Employment • Wealth• Social & political
capital• Human capital• Infrastructure• Peace• Insurance
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demandDistributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade
Consuming food: preparation, consumption
Source: Ericksen, P. (2006) Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (in prep for Food Policy)
Characteristics of food security outcome for Site X
Major Determinants of food security outcome
Linked to FS Activity? Or Other Outcome?
Staple grains are cheap if imported; expensive if local.
Costs of local production higher than foreign.
Determined primarily by the activities under Producing.
Fruits and vegetables cheap and available in rural areas.
Increasing numbers of farmers moving into horticulture so is surplus.
Determined primarily by the activities under Producing.
Fish and beef are luxury foods. Chicken is every day food in urban areas.
Fish increasingly scarce because waters over-fished.
Beef is for the export market.
Poultry is a new growth sector and so is available everywhere. Processing centered near urban areas.
Incomes differences between urban and rural areas important (social welfare).Aquatic systems reaching their threshold (natural capital).Beef and chicken price and availability determined by Producing, Processing and Retailing.
Evaluating affordability of food
Food available from local production
Income
Fresh water for aquatic systems
Nutrient stocks in soils
Food affordable
Income
Fresh water for aquatic systems
Nutrient stocks in soils
Food affordable
Food available from local production
Biodiversity
(after de Fries et al 2005)
Biodiversity
Tradeoffs among outcomes for two different food systems
Vulnerability
• Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover– Involves social values
• Function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND social dimensions of coping capacity (internal and external)
• Coping capacity includes access to assets, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures
• Vulnerability is dynamic and differential
Global environmental change
• Adds to existing stresses
• Has previously been addressed in terms of single impacts, primarily production
• Has various interactions with food systems (activities and outcomes)– Production to consumption
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)
Change in type, frequency & magnitude of
environmental threats
FOOD SYSTEMSECURITY / VULNERABILITY
SOCIETAL CHANGE
Change in institutions, resource accessibility,
economic conditions, etc.
Capacity to cope
with &/or recover
from GEC
Exposureto GEC
Adaptive capacity– social
• Social = ability or capacity or opportunity to modify processes or characteristics so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external stresses– Function of assets– Access to them – Ability to take action/ change behavior
Adaptive capacity- ecological
• Ecological = resilience – How much shock system can take without
change• Functional attributes
– Ability to self-organize– Ability to adapt and learn– Often determined by slow variables, such as
reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or heterogeneity
Vulnerability of food systems
• Any component can be vulnerable – Multiple expressions
• Arises through activities/ processes• May be “masked” if we only look at
outcomes• Is fundamentally about systems NOT
delivering food security in an equitable and sustainable manner
• Feedbacks link today to the future
Potential determinants food system vulnerability
• Low diversity in assets or entitlements• Inequity in access to resources and capacity to
take action• Institutional weaknesses/ inflexible structures• Market failures• Distance between production and consumption• Cross-scale interactions leading to surprise• Policy failures
GEC Issue
Increased incidence of
drought
FS VULNERABILITY RE FOOD DIVERSITY
HIGH
Socec. Issue
Weak dairy market
Cap. to
cope
Exp.to
GEC
FS VULNERABILITY RE PRINCIPAL PROTEIN
LOW
Integrating FS & Vulnerability Researchin the IGP: example for Nutritional Value component of
Food Utilisation
Determinant: food diversitymilk
Determinant: principal proteinlentil
Cap. to
cope
Exp.to
GEC
GEC Issue
Increased incidence of
drought
Socec. Issue
Strong lentil market
Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.
What about scale?
• It influences who / what is vulnerable• Institutions, governance and policies vary
with/ depend upon it• Cross-scale interactions create
heterogeneity and SURPRISE (and conflict)
• Tradeoffs fundamentally are across space and time– Subsidies, gains versus costs
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