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The Prospects for New Nuclear Construction Eugene S. Grecheck Vice President Nuclear Support Services ANS Virginia Section Meeting March 16, 2004. What You May Have Heard (or what happened to the predictions of 1000 reactors by 2000?). No new nuclear plant orders since 1978 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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PP571.1
The Prospects for New Nuclear The Prospects for New Nuclear ConstructionConstruction
Eugene S. GrecheckEugene S. GrecheckVice PresidentVice President Nuclear Support Services Nuclear Support Services
ANS Virginia Section MeetingANS Virginia Section MeetingMarch 16, 2004March 16, 2004
PP571.2
What You May Have HeardWhat You May Have Heard(or what happened to the predictions of 1000 (or what happened to the predictions of 1000 reactors by 2000?)reactors by 2000?)
No new nuclear plant orders since 1978 Licensing and construction takes too long Last new plant began operation in 1996 Construction and operations and
maintenance costs are too high Licensing is unpredictable
PP571.3
If That’s True, Then…………...If That’s True, Then…………...
Many existing units will shut down prematurely
Licenses will not be renewed No new units will ever be built Nuclear will fade from the nation’s energy
portfolio
So…… IS IT TRUE????
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Ca
pa
cit
y F
ac
tor
(%)
Industry Capacity FactorIndustry Capacity FactorContinues at Record LevelContinues at Record Level
86.8% in 1999
89.6% in 2000
90.7% in 2001
91.5% in 2002
Nuclear Energy Institute
Production Costs ShowProduction Costs ShowSteady, Sustained ImprovementSteady, Sustained Improvement
'81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Pro
du
ctio
n C
ost
(cen
ts/k
Wh
)
2.09 cents/kWh in 1998
1.90 cents/kWh in 1999
1.81 cents/kWh in 2000
1.68 cents/kWh in 2001
(production cost in cents per kilowatt-hour)
PP571.6
US Electricity Production Costs (1981-2002)US Electricity Production Costs (1981-2002)in 2002 cents per kilowatt-hourin 2002 cents per kilowatt-hour
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Nuclear 1.71
Coal 1.85
Gas 4.06
Oil 4.41
Source: RDI /EUCG. Converted to 2002 dollars by NEI.
PP571.7
Industry Safety Performance shows steady Industry Safety Performance shows steady Improvement………………………Improvement……………………… Number of Unusual Events Reported to NRC Number of Unusual Events Reported to NRC (1989-2002)(1989-2002)
151170
135
10392
66 63
4026
3418 13 14
197
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002Source: NRC
Note: A Notification of Unusual Event for power and non-power reactor licensees is a condition involving potential degradation of the level of plant safety that does not represent an immediate threat to public health and safety.
769 780
577
641674
728754
500
600
700
800
1990 1994 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Nuclear Plant Output:Growth During the 1990s
Equivalent to 26 new 1,000-megawatt power plants
Year
Bill
ion k
Wh
PP571.9
License Renewal: License Renewal: Unlocking Additional ValueUnlocking Additional Value
Already filedCatawba 1,2McGuire 1,2Fort Calhoun
Announced 2003Arkansas Nuclear One Unit 2Cook 1,2Browns Ferry 1,2,3
Announced 2004Millstone 2,3Nine Mile Point 1,2Brunswick 1,2Beaver Valley 1,2Davis-BessePilgrim
ApprovedCalvert Cliffs 1,2Oconee 1,2,3Arkansas Nuclear One Unit 1Hatch 1,2Turkey Point 3,4North Anna 1,2Surry 1,2Peach Bottom 2,3St. Lucie 1,2
Already filed (cont’d)Robinson 2V.C. Summer GinnaDresden 2,3 Quad Cities 1,2Farley 1,2
Source: NRC
Updated : October 2003
Announced 2005Entergy PlantEntergy Plant
Announced 2006Susquehanna 1,2Entergy PlantWolf Creek
PP571.10
Today’s State of the Nuclear IndustryToday’s State of the Nuclear Industry
440 commercial reactors in 31 countries 103 commercial reactors in the U.S. Overall, 16% of the world’s electricity 15 countries: Over 25%, some over 70% 31 new reactors under construction in
other countries - but none in the U.S. …….yet!
PP571.11
96
231
313
393
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2005 2010 2015 2020
Years
Gig
aw
att
s..
.
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001
Projected U.S. Energy GrowthProjected U.S. Energy Growth
PP571.12
Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type (1950-2002) (1950-2002)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Na
me
Pla
te C
ap
ac
ity
MW
Other Petroleum Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal
Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.
PP571.13
Current U.S. Electricity GenerationCurrent U.S. Electricity GenerationFuel Diversity (2002)Fuel Diversity (2002)
Hydro8%
Natural Gas17%
Oil2%
Renewables3%
Nuclear20%
Coal50%
Source: NEI
Emission-free sources
50,000 MWe of New Nuclear!50,000 MWe of New Nuclear!
30%non-emitting
30%non-emitting
Oil, Gas & Coal
Hydro & Renewables
New Nuclear Capability (50,000 MWe)
Enhanced Nuclear Capability (10,000 MWe)
Existing Nuclear Capability
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000 2020
Billion
kW
h
PP571.15
What Has Changed---and Is It What Has Changed---and Is It Enough?Enough?
New licensing process New plant designs More reliable and efficient operation
PP571.16
New NRC Licensing ProcessNew NRC Licensing Process
NRC revised its regulations--Part 52--for new nuclear plants over a decade ago
Part 52 has three elements:
– Design certification
– Early site permitting
– Combined license
PP571.17
Early Site Permit
Design Certification
Combined LicenseIssued
Construction ITAAC Operation
Apply forConstruction
PermitConstruction
Apply for Operating
License
Operating License Issued
Operations
OLD LICENSINGPROCESS
NEW LICENSINGPROCESS
NRC Licensing Process
License Issued BEFORE Large Capital Investment
License Issued AFTER Large Capital Investment
Construction Permit Issued
What this Process ChangesWhat this Process Changes
Licensing decisions will be made BEFORE large capital investments are made.– Safety and environmental issues will be resolved before
construction starts– NSSS and BOP design will be well developed before
COL application is submitted– Plants will be almost fully designed before construction
starts Result: High confidence in construction schedule
and cost control
PP571.19
Design CertificationDesign Certification Design Certification addresses design issues
early in the process Plants are designed to be constructed in less
than 48 months Each manufacturer’s plants will be a standard
certified design 3 Design Certificates have been issued, 1 active
application in review
PP571.20
Early Site Permits (ESP)Early Site Permits (ESP)
Obtaining an ESP allows a company like Dominion to “bank” a site for 20 years, with an option to renew
If and when market conditions warrant, nuclear may then be considered among a variety of generation options
Dominion has no plans to build another nuclear plant yet.
PP571.21
ESP Application StatusESP Application Status
Dominion’s ESP Application was submitted on 9/25/03
Exelon submitted on 9/25/03
Entergy submitted on 10/21/03
PP571.22
Combined LicenseCombined License
Combines the Early Site Permit and the Design Certification into a site and technology specific document
When approved, provides authorization to build and operate
Resolves operational and construction issues before construction begins
Process has yet to be tested
PP571.23
New Nuclear TechnologiesNew Nuclear Technologies Innovative new reactor technologies are being
developed for deployment Passive and active safety system designs Some based on existing light and heavy water
designs; some on new gas-cooled technologies Bases in existing technology expected to yield
reliable operation Designed for short construction periods and
reduced construction costs All can be economically attractive
PP571.24
General Electric Advanced Boiling General Electric Advanced Boiling Water ReactorWater Reactor
Net plant output, 1356 Mwe, 3926 MWth, with uprate to 1500 Mwe, 4300 MWth
Single, stand-alone unit Licensed in three countries Improved safety systems Engineered in detail, except for site
engineering Has been constructed in 48 months Next ABWR unit will be the 5th in the
series Design Certification has been issued
PP571.25
Westinghouse AP1000Westinghouse AP1000
3400 MWth, 1200 MWe 2 steam generators, 4 canned
reactor coolant pumps Based on much existing
technology Passive Design Features Modular construction
– 36 Month Construction, First Concrete to Fuel Load
Design Certification application has been filed. Approval expected in 2005
PP571.26
Atomic Energy Atomic Energy Canada, LTD Canada, LTD ACR-700ACR-700
739 MWe, 1983 MWth Designed for simultaneous
LOCA and Loss of ECCS On-Power Refueling Robust, safe, economical Fuel
Design Compact, smaller Calandria Horizontal fuel channels Reduced Heavy Water
Inventory Design Certification application
expected in 2004
PP571.27
General Electric ESBWRGeneral Electric ESBWR
1380MWe, 4000MWth Passive Safety Systems to
Simplify Plant Design Natural Circulation Reactor
Vessel Designed for Improved
Reliability and Maintainability
Design Certification application expected in 2005
PP571.28
Other Plant DesignsOther Plant Designs Framatome SWR-1000
– 1250 MWe BWR, active and passive safety systems Framatome EPR
– 1600 MWe advanced PWR, improved thermal performance
Westinghouse IRIS– 330 MWe PWR, single pressure vessel houses all
major components Pebble Bed Modular Reactor
– 160 MWe Gas cooled, single cycle General Atomics GT-MHR
– 285 MWe Gas cooled, single cycle
PP571.29
DOE Nuclear Power 2010DOE Nuclear Power 2010
Objectives:– Develop new technologies– Demonstrate licensing process– Encourage new nuclear development
Cost-sharing approach Also supports advanced research and critical
education pipeline
PP571.30
Barriers to the Decision to BuildBarriers to the Decision to Build Licensing uncertainties with untested
processes High initial unit costs Financing risks Earnings dilution during construction High level waste disposal Price-Anderson renewal
PP571.31
What’s Next?What’s Next? Energy Bill
– Still stalled in Congress– Potential for incentives to assist development of the
first new plants– Gas Reactor Demonstration Project at INEEL
NP2010– DOE solicitation to develop COL application to test
next step in licensing process – Includes DOE match for FOAKE
PP571.32
Hypothetical Timeline for First PlantHypothetical Timeline for First Plant
Develop COL Application, complete necessary first of a kind engineering (FOAKE)– 24 months
NRC Review and Approval of COL Application– 24-36 months– Complete remainder of FOAKE
Construction of new plant– 48-54 months, start of construction to commercial
operation
IT CAN ALL HAPPEN AS SOON AS 2013
PP571.33
Can it Really Happen?Can it Really Happen?
Price stability Energy diversity Emission-free generation
It Can… and Must!
PP571.34
““The best way to predict the The best way to predict the future is to create it.”future is to create it.”
-- Peter F. Drucker
PP571.35
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