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© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Conseil Français de l’EnergieCONSEIL FRANÇAIS DE L’ÉNERGIE
www.wec-france.org
World Energy Scenarios:
the Grand TransitionInstitut d’Etudes Politiques, Paris
1st February 2017
Olivier APPERTprésident
Jean Eudes MONCOMBLEsecrétaire général
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
About the Conseil Français de l’Énergie
Founded in 1923, French Committee of theWorld Energy Council
Promote the sustainable supplyand use of energy for the greatestbenefit of all people
All resources and all energy technologies,both on supply and demand side
2
STUDIES
PUBLICATIONS
RESEARCH
EVENTS
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
About the World Energy Council
Principal impartial network of leaders and practitioners
Almost 100 countries (2/3 of developing countries)
Over 3000 member organizations
3
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France 4
23rd World Energy Congress, Istanbul
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
The Key Statistics from the 23rd World
Energy Congress (9-13 October 2016)
“Embracing New Frontiers”
• 5,500 delegates from 151 countries
• 4 Heads of State
• 56 government ministers from 48 countries
• 266 speakers from 78 countries
• 50 sessions over 4 days :
– Vision and Scenarios for the Future
– Identifying the Business Opportunities: Resources and Technologies
– Policy Solutions to Secure Prosperity: Embracing the Trilemma
– Africa: Securing a Sustainable Energy Future
• 75 Future Energy Leaders’ Programme participants from 56 countries
• 34 sponsors, ± 2000 exhibitors, 42 media partners
5
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Modern
Jazz
Unfinished
Symphony
Hard
Rock
World Energy Scenarios
6
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Starting point
• Factors that shaped world energy 1970-2015
– Population and labour force growth
– New technologies and productivity
– Environmental priorities
– International governance and geopolitics
– Energy policies and th role of the state
7
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Starting point
• Factors that will shaped world energy 2015-2060
– Population and labour force growth
– New technologies and productivity
– Environmental priorities
– International governance and geopolitics
– Energy policies and th role of the state
8
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Pre-determined Elements of
the Grand Transition
Factors shaped
world energy 1970 - 2015
Pre-determined
elements 2015 – 2060
Population /
Workforce
Global population grew 2x
(1.7% p.a.)
Global population will grow
1.4x (0.7% p.a.)
New
Technologies
ICT revolution
Productivity growth rate of
1.7% p.a.
Pervasive digitalisation;
combinatorial impacts and
productivity paradox
Planetary
Boundaries
1,900+ Gt CO2 consumed 1,000 Gt CO2 consumed to
2100 for the 2°C target
Shifts in
Power
Rapid economic rise of
developing nations
Growing role for global
institutions, e.g. UNFCCC,
IMF, WTO, G20
2030: India is most
populous country
2035-45: China is the
world’s largest economy
9
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Critical Uncertainties of
the Grand Transition
Modern
Jazz
Unfinished
Symphony
Hard
Rock
Productivity /
Economic
Growth
GDP 3.3% p.a.
(2015–2060)
Digital boost
Tech innovation
GDP per capita 2060
US$ 30,600
GDP 2.9% p.a. (2015–
2060)
Sustainable growth
Circular economies
GDP per capita 2060
US$ 25,200
GDP 1.7% p.a. (2015–
2060)
Fragmented markets
Local content
GDP per capita 2060
US$ 14,700
Climate
Challenge
Cumulative carbon
emission 2015-60
1,491 Gt CO2
Cumulative carbon
emission 2015-60
1,165 Gt CO2
Cumulative carbon
emission 2015-60
1,642 Gt CO2
International
Governance
Economics focused
international
governance
Broad-based
international
governance
Fractured and weak
international system
Tools for
Action
Markets States Patchwork of states
and markets
10
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Three Scenarios
Modern Jazz
Market-driven approach to achieving
individual access and affordability of
energy through economic growth
Market mechanisms
Technology
innovation
Energy access for all
Unfinished Symphony
Government-driven approach to
achieving sustainability through
internationally coordinated politics
and practices
Strong policy
Long-term planning
Unified climate action
Hard Rock
Fragmented approach driven by
desire for energy security in a world
with low global cooperation
Fragmented policies
Local content
Best-fit local
solutions11
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
THE WORLD’S PRIMARY ENERGY
DEMAND GROWTH… will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to
unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more
stringent energy policies.
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2000 2014 2030 2060
History Modern Jazz
Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock
Per Capita Primary Energy Demand(TOE)
1
Slower Primary Energy Demand Growth
12
DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY
… will double to 2060. Meeting this demand with cleaner energy
sources will require substantial infrastructure investments and systems
integration to deliver benefits to all consumers.
Electricity Generation(TWh)
2
13© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
THE PHENOMENAL RISE OF
SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY… will continue at an unprecedented rate and create both new
opportunities and challenges for energy systems.
0,2
5,7
7,9
3,3
2014
Modern Jazz2060
UnfinishedSymphony
2060
Hard Rock2060
0,7
8,8
9,3
5,6
Solar Electricity Generation(‘000 TWh)
3
Wind Electricity Generation(‘000 TWh)
14© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
15© Conseil Français de l’Énergie
Modern Jazz 2060
Unfinished Symphony 2060
Electricity mix
2014
Coal
Oil
Gas CCS
Geother.
Wind
Hydro
Bio CCS
Coal CCS
Gas
No fossil
Solar
Nuclear
Bio
Hard Rock 2060
DEMAND PEAKS FOR
COAL AND OIL… have the potential to take the world from “Stranded Assets” to
“Stranded Resources”.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2014 2030 2060
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2000 2014 2030 2060
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2014 2030 2060
Coal Demand(‘000 MTOE)
Oil Demand(mb/d)
Natural Gas Demand(‘000 MTOE)
4
History Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock
16© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
Modern Jazz
2060
Unfinished Symphony
2060Hard Rock
2060
2014
Energy mix
Coal
Oil
Others ren
Nuclear
Bio
Gas
No fossil
Hydro
renewable
17
TRANSITIONING GLOBAL
TRANSPORT…… forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to
decarbonise future energy systems.
Electric Vehicles of Light-duty Vehicle Fleets
5
Modern Jazz2060
Unfinished Symphony 2060
Hard Rock2060
18© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING…
… to no more than a 2°C increase will require an exceptional and
enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments and with very
high carbon prices.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2014 2030 2060
History
Modern Jazz
Unfinished Symphony
Hard Rock
IPCC 2°C Target
Annual Carbon Emissions (Gt CO2)
6
Cumulative Carbon Emissions 2015-2060(Gt CO2)
20© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
© World Energy Council 2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
ENERGY TRILEMMA IN 20607
Modern Jazz
2060
Unfinished
Symphony 2060
Hard Rock
2060
22© Conseil Français de l’Énergie | www.wec-france.org | @CFE_WEC_France
© World Energy Council 2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Methodology of the Global Scenarios
Executive interviews, three exploratory
workshops, text analytics1
scenario framing workshops supported
by expert insights from 100+ global
experts
2
Two Scenario building workshops and
eight regional workshops to test ideas3
Refinement of trends and mapping to
energy drivers4
Source: Accenture Strategy
Historical analysis and benchmarking
to quantify key input drivers
5
GMM MARKAL modelling supported by
robust quality control process
6
Define
Alternative
Dynamics
Agree
on Critical
Trends Develop
Distinct
Scenarios
Develop
Dynamic
ModelDefine
Model
Inputs
Run Model
& Analyze
Outputs
1 23
4
5
6
23
© World Energy Council 2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
World Energy Scenario Workshops
Global Scenario Study Group Workshops
(London: Mar ‘15, May ‘15 , July ’15 ,
Sep ‘15 , Jan ‘16 , April ’16 )
India Energy Congress
India Regional Workshop
(Delhi: Jan ’15 )
22nd World Energy Congress
Launch of Global Scenarios
(Istanbul: Oct ’16 )
China WELD
(Beijing: March ’16 )
Asian Clean Energy
Forum / WELS
Smart Innovation and
LNG presentations
(Manila: Jun ‘15 )
Africa Indaba
African Regional Workshops
(Johannesburg: Feb ‘15 , Feb ‘16 )
2015 WEC Executive Assembly
Presentation of initial Global
Scenario Findings, e-Mobility and
Natural Gas Reports
(Addis Ababa: Oct ‘15 )
North America Regional Workshop
(DC: 4-5 May ‘16 )
EU Regional Scenarios
(Paris: 21-22 Mar ‘16)
Latin America
Regional Workshop
(Rio: 17 Nov ‘15)
24
© World Energy Council 2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
MARKAL model
Inputs
Critical Insights on Dynamics Between Variables
Scenario Outputs
• Primary Energy
• Final Consumption
• Energy Intensity
Scenario A
Resource AvailabilitiesLearning Curves Regulatory Policies
Multi-Variable
Dynamic Model
Model Constraints
Published Results
Key Assumptions
Raw Data Outputs
Electricity
Generation
Examples
Regional
Resources
Greenhouse
Emissions
Efficiency
Growth
Regulation / Policies
Resource Availability
25
© World Energy Council 2016 | www.worldenergy.org | @WECouncil
Conseil Français de l’EnergieCONSEIL FRANÇAIS DE L’ÉNERGIE
www.wec-france.org
World Energy Scenarios:
the Grand TransitionInstitut d’Etudes Politiques, Paris
1st February 2017
Olivier APPERTprésident
Jean Eudes MONCOMBLEsecrétaire général
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