WRF User's Workshop Assessment of the WRF Model for Use in Regional Predictability Studies...

WRF User's Workshop

Assessment of the WRF Model for Use in Regional Predictability Studies

Joshua P. Hacker and Dave P. Baumhefner (NCAR)

Motivation Approach building a house Early results Future directions

WRF User's Workshop

Why Care?

Understand the capabilities and limitations of a current-generation grid point LAM

Create a stronger foundation for regional predictability studies

To what extent can we treat WRF as a proxy for the real atmosphere?

WRF User's Workshop

Building a House

Lateral boundaries

Mesoscale predictability

Res

olut

ion

Scale interaction

WRF

WRF User's Workshop

Comparison With Unbounded Model

WRF on hemispheric domain vs. CCM3 90 km at 45°N vs. T170 10-member ensembles Perturbations follow Errico-Baumhefner 6-day forecasts 4-5 winter 2001-02 cases chosen from different

regimes

WRF User's Workshop

WR

F

CC

M3

WR

F

WRF User's Workshop

Future Directions

Establish a valid perfect-model study region in (resolution, domain, forecast length) space

Observation system experiments Confident predictability studies of

mesoscale phenomena