Www.coneval.gob.mx A methodology for the measurement of multidimensional poverty in Mexico August,...

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A methodology for the measurement of

multidimensional poverty in Mexico

August, 2010

CONEVAL

Social Development

Law(2004)

Evaluation of Social Development Policy

Multidimensional Poverty Measurement

CONEVAL

CONEVAL• Public institution • Academic researchers • Technical autonomy

BUILDING THE METHODOLOGY

Why?

• It is a mandate of the Social Development Law

• The Law stablishes the main characteristics poverty measurement should comply:– To make visible the link between social programs &

the measurement of poverty, for public policy purposes.

– It should be defined both in the space of social rights and economic wellbeing.

– It includes eight dimensions: income, educational gap, access to health services, access to social security, quality of living spaces, housing access to basic services, access to food and the degree of social cohesion.

– Measurement should be made for the whole country, states (2 years) and municipalities (5 years).

Social Rights

Education

Health

Social security Food

Housing

Rights to social development

“..to guarantee the full exercise of the social rights set forth in the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States,

ensuring access to social development to the population as a whole ”

• The Law was approved unanimously by the Chambers of Deputies

and Senators

• This Law can be seen as the social consensus Mexico has achieved through Congress

Adventages of the social rights approach

• It aligns poverty measurement with the normative regulations of the Mexican goverment.

• It solves satisfactorilly problems of weights and thresholds:– Since human rights are indivisible &

interdependent, they all have the same relative importance. That´s why all indicators of social deprivation have the same weight.

– The Mexican regulation sets thresholds for several dimensions.

2006 2007 2008 2009

Datadelivery

ProcessDiscussions, criteria & design of data sources

Five Specific

consultations

Consultationwith

experts

Consultationabout

indicators, thresholds,

questions with public inst.

SurveyDesign

National and

international seminars

Building the methodology

DataCollection

Presentation(December)

Discussions of

proposalsFinal

discussions & results of

studies

• Bourguignon,Thorbecke, Kakwani, Lustig,Skoufias, Walton, Khander, Reddy, Feres, López-Calva, … among others.

• Julio Boltvinik• Satya Chakravarty• James Foster, Sabine

Alkire• David Gordon• Rubén Hernández and

Humberto Soto

MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY

Methodological approach

PovertyMeasureme

nt

Social Rights Economic

Wellbeing

• Constitutional guarantees

• Poverty associated with social deprivation

• Economic policy and income have an impact on social development

Degree of social cohesion

Territorial

What are the main features of the new methodology?

Social RightsDeprivations

Mexican Population

Wellb

ein

gIn

com

e

Current income per capita

• Educational gap

•A to Health

•A to Social Security

•Housing

• Basic services

•A to Food

03 2 1456

Social RightsDeprivations

Main features(simple to understand)

EWL

Population with social deprivationsEconomic wellbeing line

WithoutDeprivations

035 24 16

MULTIDIMENSIONAL POOR

Vulnerable people by

social deprivation

s

Vulnerable people by

income

Population without

deprivations and with

an adequate level of

economic wellbeing

Public policy

Social RightsDeprivations

Aggregation: the headcount ratio

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

H=qn_

Social RightsDeprivations

Aggregation: Depth & intensity of poverty

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

1.35.7

Average number

of deprivation

s

MODERATE POVERTY

Social RightsDeprivations

Wellb

ein

gIn

com

e

Vulnerable people by

social deprivation

s

Total population 2008 (106,680,526)

33.0%35.2 millions

2.0 deprivations on

average

03 2 1456

EXTREME POVERTY

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

Vulnerable people by

income 4.5 % 4.8 millions

18.3%19.5 millions

MULTIDIMENSIONALPOVERTY

44.2%47.2 millions2.7 deprivations on average

Population without deprivations and with an adequate level of economic wellbeing

Indigenous and non-indigenous populationPercentage of population in multidimensional poverty

depending on whether they speak an indigenous language or not

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

National Non-indigenous Indigenous

44.2 42.0

75.7

33.0 33.9

20.0 4.5

4.7

1.2 18.3 19.4

3.1

Without deprivations, adequatelevel of wellbeing

Vulnerable by income

Vulnerable by social deprivation

Multidimensional poverty

Children, elderly 2008

Percentage of population in multidimensional poverty by age group

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

National Children Adults Elderly

44.2 53.3

38.4 44.5

33.0

28.8

35.6 34.0

4.5 4.6

4.4 4.3

18.3 13.3

21.6 17.2

Without deprivations, adequatelevel of wellbeing

Vulnerable by income

Vulnerable by social deprivation

Multidimensional poverty

CHIAPAS

Multidimensional poverty by state

RanksTotal

of States

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

Percentage of population with social deprivations. Mexico, 2008

Social deprivation Percentage

Access to social security 64.7

Access to health services 40.7

Educational gap 21.7

Access to food 21.6

Housing access to basic services 18.9

Quality of living spaces 17.5

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

EXTREME MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY

Moderate multidimensional

poverty

Social RightsDeprivations

EWL

EXTREME multidimensional

poverty

Minimum wellbeing line

03

Vulnerable people by

social deprivation

s

Vulnerable people by

income

5 24 16

Population without

deprivations and

adequate level of

economic wellbeing

MWL Public policy

Poverty identification

Indigenous and non-indigenous population

Percentage of population in multidimensional poverty depending on whether they speak an indigenous language or

not

National

Non-indigenous Indigenous

Without deprivations, adequate level of wellbeing

Vulnerable by income

Vulnerable by social deprivation

Moderate poverty

Extreme poverty

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

44.2 42.0

75.7

RanksTotal

of States

CHIAPAS

Multidimensional poverty by state

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

USING THE METHODOLOGY FOR PUBLIC POLICY

Social RightsDeprivations

What policies should be carried out?

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

MWL

Economic Policies:•Economic growth•Job creation

Social RightsDeprivations

What policies should be carried out?

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

MWL

Social Policies:•Health•Education•Housing

Social RightsDeprivations

What policies should be carried out?

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

MWL

Targeted policies

•Social Programs for the population in poverty

Social RightsDeprivations

What policies should be carried out?

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

MWL

Universal policies•Social Security•Education for all•Access to health services•Economic growth

Percentage of population in poverty if there were universal coverage of health services and social security

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

NationalUniversal coverage of health services

and social security

10.5

3.1

33.7

28.1

33.0

16.6

4.5

16.8

18.3

35.4

Without deprivations, adequate level of wellbeing

Vulnerable by income

Vulnerable by social deprivation

Moderate poverty

Extreme poverty

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

Using the methodology

• Social programs are changing the way they identify their beneficiaries

• We’re starting to evaluate social programs (ex post and ex ante) using this approach.

• Other Ministries, besides the Ministry of Social Development, understand better their role in reducing poverty in Mexico

• The Strategy for poorer municipalities is using the methodology to target their programs

Using the methodology

• By linking social deprivations with poverty, policy recommendations are strengthened.

• There is a tendency to focus on cash transfers when poverty is measured only with income. Social policies for overcoming poverty should also pursue to universally guarantee social rights.

• It is now possible to evaluate the effect of social policy not only on income poverty but also on specific social deprivations.

Using the methodology

• Since income poverty is influenced by a number of circumstances that social policy cannot control (sometimes the country cannot control), relevant social achievements may remain undetected.

• Finally, a remarkable feature of the methodology is that it does not only identify poverty (priority), but also it identifies the whole population without access to social rights, which is a complete way of looking at public policy.

LPTI

ZAP

Institutionalization of the methodology

Communicate to public, governmental officials and academics

Income vs. Multidimensional Poverty. Parallel use.

Needs time to adjust and put into practice for social programs

Advice: people appropriates it

www.coneval.gob.mx

Targetting

Targetting with MDM

Starting 2012

Priority zones are chosen using community level data not yet with MDM

Programs are directed to these regions

THRESHOLDS

Legal criteria

Experts criteria

How to determine thresholds? Social rights

Consultation with specialists

Use of legal norms, if they exist

Public institutions

Health, Housing, Social Security, Education

Educational gap

Population aged 3-15

years

Population aged

16 years or older

She or he is not attending a formal educational center

• When someone was born before 1981 and lacks the mandatory basic education current at the time he or she should have completed it. Primary

• When someone was bornbefore 1982 and lacks the mandatory basic education current at the time she should have completed it. Secondary

How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?

When a person is not enrolled in or not entitled to receive medical services from:

Popular Insurance

A social security public institution

A private medical service

Acces to health services

How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?

Access to social

security

• If the worker does not receive medical services as a work benefit or through voluntary enrollment and a retirement investment plan

Direct access

Family nucleus

Other family nucleus and

voluntary enrollment

• If a person is not enrolled in an institution that provides medical services by voluntary enrollment.

• If the spouse,child, parent, -law of the head of household is not enrolled in an medical institution

If the person does not have a relative who has access to social security

If the person is not beneficiary of a social program of pensions for senior citizens

How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?

Quality of living spaces

When the material is cardboard sheets or residue material

Roofs

Walls

Floors

Overcrowding

When the material is mud or daub&wattle; reed, bamboo or palm; cardboard, metal or asbestos sheets; residue material

When the material of the floor is soil

When the ratio of people per room is greater than 2.5

How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?

Housing access to basic services

• When it is obtained from a well, river, lake, stream, or truck.

• When piped water is carried from another dwelling or gotten at a public faucet or hydrant

Water

Drainage

service

Electricity

• No drainage service.• When the drain is connected to

pipes leading to a river, lake, sea, ravine or crack

When there is no electricity

How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?

Food security

Food insecurity

Acess tofood

Deprivation due to lack of

access to food

Slight

Moderate

Severe

How to determine thresholds of social deprivations?

Food basket Non food basket

Minimum economic

wellbeing line

Changes on current consumption patterns

Calorics requirements & micronutrients

Rural & urban settings

Economic wellbeing

How to determine thresholds? Economic Wellbeing

Goods and services have an income

elasticity<1

Necessary goods & services

Rural & urban settings

SOCIAL COHESION

Social RightsDeprivations

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

MWL

Social Cohesion

We can have this type of society:

Social RightsDeprivations

Social dispersion: inequality, polarization

EWL

Sin

035 24 16

MWL

…or one like this one:

Gini Index

[0.48 - 0.50) 9

[0.50 - 0.56] 12

RangosTotal de

entidades

[0.42 - 0.48) 11

RanksTotal

of States

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the MCS-ENIGH 2008.

GUIDELINES AND CRITERIA FOR

IDENTIFYING POVERTY

Guidelines and criteria (G&C) for identifying poverty

Mandatory application for public institutions

Social programs should consider the indicators of multidimensional

poverty

G&C should be incorporated in social programs and evaluation

Flexible G&C according to the programs final goals.

Not all the indicators must be used in identifying targeted population.

V.gr. Oportunidades

THANK YOU

Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social

(CONEVAL)

Boulevard Adolfo López Mateos No.160 Col. San Ángel Inn, Delegación Álvaro Obregón, C.P. 01060, México, D.F.

Contact information

www.coneval.gob.mx

Gonzalo Hernández LiconaExecutive Secretary

E-mail: ghernandezl@coneval.gob.mx

EXAMPLES

Examples

Manual

worker

House

without tap

water

Income belo

w the wellbeing line

He just

completed primary

school

MODERATE POVERTY

Social RightsDeprivations

Wellb

ein

gIn

com

e

03 2 1456

EXTREME POVERTY

MULTIDIMENSIONALPOVERTY

Examples

She is 15 years

oldShe

quitted school to help

her family

She lives in a

house with one bedroom

for 8 people

She completed

the 1st year of

secondary school

and does not have

social security

Sometimes her family eats

once a day due to lack

of resource

s

POBREZA EXTREMA

POBREZA MODERADA

Social RightsDeprivations

Wellb

ein

gIn

com

e

03 2 1456

EXTREME POVERTY

Examples

Self-employed

Earns an

average of 2,400 dlls

monthly

He does not

have socia

l security

He will turn 62

years old

Social RightsDeprivations

Wellb

ein

gIn

com

e

Vulnerable by social

deprivation

03 2 1456

Examples

Her sales fell

She owns her

home which has all

services

She pays voluntary social security.

She finished

high school

For the last four months

her company

costs are

larger than her income

Vulnerable by income

Social RightsDeprivations

Wellb

ein

gIn

com

e

03 2 1456

SUPPORTINGSLIDES

Labor Poverty Trend Index (LPTI)1

First trimester 2005 – Second trimester 2010

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

2005 1t

2005 2t

2005 3t

2005 4t

2006 1t

2006 2t

2006 3t

2006 4t

2007 1t

2007 2t

2007 3t

2007 4t

2008 1t

2008 2t

2008 3t

2008 4t

2009 1t

2009 2t

2009 3t

2009 4t

2010 1t

2010 2t

Evolución del Índice de la Tendencia Laboral de la Pobreza (ENOE), nacionalPrimer trimestre 2005 al segundo trimestre 2010

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on the ENOE , INEGI.

1. Base: first trimester of 2005.

Percentage of population with social deprivations in Poor Municipalities (ZAP). Mexico, 2008 & 2009

Social deprivations in ZAP

2008 2009

Percentage

Access to health services

51.8 39.2

Educational gap 38.0 33.7

Access to food 34.2 36.9

Housing access to basic services

55.2 43.6

Quality of living spaces 43.7 37.3

Source: estimates of the CONEVAL based on MCS-ENIGH 2008 and Monitoreo de ZAP 2009 .

More than 50% of municipalities in Mexico are ZAP. In those municipalities live 16% of Mexican population.

Principles of human rights

Universal

Inalienable

Interdependent

Indivisible

Interrelated

Absolute

Inherent

Inviolable

Irreversible

Progressive

InterdependentUnfulfillment of any right affects

the others

IndivisibleAll rights have

equal status and cannot be

positioned in a hierarchical order

UniversalEverybody is

entitled to them