View
3
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
1
CNPC-IEEJ WS
12 Dec. 2013, Beijing, China
Yukari Yamashita
Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2013
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Outlook Assumptions: Primary Energy Prices
(Note 1) Prices are for calendar years. Forecast prices are in 2012 dollars.
(Note 2) Japan’s energy prices are on a CIF import basis.
2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990
2000
2012
2020
2030
2040
LNG (right scale)
Crude oil
Steam coal (right scale)
$/t
← →
$/bbl
History Forecast
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Scenarios
Reference Scenario
Advanced Technology Scenario
Enhanced Unconventional Resources Development Scenario
This scenario reflects past trends as well as energy and environment policies that have been introduced so far. This scenario does not reflect any aggressive policies for energy conservation or low-carbon measures.
In this scenario, energy conservation and low-carbon technologies are promoted for maximum impacts, as each country is assumed to implement powerful policies to enhance energy security and address climate change issues.
Using the Reference Scenario as a starting point, this scenario maximizes the development of unconventional fossil fuel resources, including shale oil and gas. This scenario identifies the global impacts of such development on energy supply and demand.
3 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,0001
97
1
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
11
20
20
20
30
20
40
石油換算百万トン
Primary Energy Demand by Region Reference Scenario
Asia
North America
OECD Europe
Non-OECD Europe
Latin America Middle East
Africa
Oceania
Average annual growth
’80-’11 ’11-’40
World 1.9% 1.4%
Asia 4.1% 2.0%
North America
0.7% 0.2% 5.1 Btoe
8.9 Btoe
4
Mtoe
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
Mtoe
Global Primary Energy Consumption
Oil 32%→29% [28%]
Coal 29%→25% [20%]
Natural gas 21%→25% [22%]
Nuclear 5.1%→6.0% [9.7%]
Other renewables 11%→13%[18%]
Hydro 2.3%→2.0%[2.5%]
Share: 2011-2040 (Reference) [2040 (Adv. Tech)]
Solid line ------Ref. Scenario Dotted line・・Adv. Tech.
5 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
Average annual growth
’80-’11 ’11-’40
Total 1.9% 1.4%
Coal 2.4% 0.9%
Oil 0.9% 1.2%
Natural gas 2.7% 1.9%
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
Mtoe
Asian Primary Energy Consumption
Oil 24%→24% [23%]
Coal 50%→41% [34%]
Natural gas 9%→17% [15%]
Nuclear 2.2%→5.2%[9.8%]
Other renewables 13%→11%[16%]
Hydro 1.8%→1.7%[2.3%]
Share: 2011-2040 (Reference) [2040 (Adv. Tech)]
6 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013)
Solid line ------Ref. Scenario Dotted line・・Adv. Tech.
All Rights reserved IEEJ
Average annual growth
’80-’11 ’11-’40
Total 4.1% 2.0%
Coal 5.6% 1.3%
Oil 3.0% 2.0%
Natural gas 7.5% 4.0%
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
China India Japan
Korea Taiwan Indonesia
Malaysia Philippines Thailand
Vietnam Singapore Hong Kong
Other Asia Adv. Tech.
Mtoe
17%
14%
37%
China
India
Japan
41%
21%
7%
Oil Demand by Region (Asia)
0.39 bil.toe (19%) Reduction
7
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1971 1980 1990 2011 2020 2030 2040
million vehicles
Other Asia
China
India
Japan
46%
24%
35%
29%
22%
8%
8%
28%
530mil.
270mil.
800mil.
Ownership rate in 2040
Japan:58%
India:11%
China:26%
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
Car Ownership(Asia)
2011年 2040年 Ref. Scenario
1.2 Btoe 2.1Btoe
(24.5MB/D) (43.0M B/D) Adv. Tech.
1.7Btoe
(35.1M B/D)
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Natural Gas Demand by Country (Asia)
Reference Adv. Tech.
8
0
500
1000
1500
1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
China India Japan Korea
Taipei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines
Thailand Vietnam Singapore Hong Kong
Other Asia Tech. Adv.
China
India
Japan
Mtoe
7%
42%
16%
11%
23%
21%
340 Mtoe
(23%) Reduction
AAGR China India Japan Korea Taipei Singapore
1980-2011 7.3% 12.6% 5.1% - 7.5% -
2011-2040 6.3% 5.5% 0.2% 0.8% 2.7% 1.7%
Indonesia Malaysia Phi l i ppines Thailand Vietnam Other As ia
6.5% 8.9% - - - 6.2%
3.4% 2.7% 4.6% 4.1% 5.4% 3.6%
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
TWh
AAGR
’80-’11 ’11-’40
Total 6.8% 2.9%
Coal 10.0% 2.4%
Oil -1.3% 0.2%
Gas 8.8% 4.1%
Oil-fired 4%→2% [1%]
Coal-fired 63%→54% [38%]
Gas-fired 13%→18% [15%]
Nuclear 5%→10% [18%]
Other Renewables 3%→7% [16%]
Hydro 12%→9% [12%]
9
Power Generation Mix by Source (Asia) Solid line: Reference Dotted line: Adv. Tech.
Share2011→2040
Reference [Adv. Tech.]
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
51%49%
47%44%
30%23%18%15%
12%
13%
15%
18%
26%25%
28%32%
15%
16%
18%
20%
27%38%
42%43%
23%
21%
20%
18%
17%14%
13%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
19
71
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
11
20
20
20
30
20
40
Others
Europe
North
America
Asia
Gt
CO2 Emission by Region (World, Asia) Reference
10
Increase in 2011-2040
8.9
-0.3
4.3
0.1
Asia NorthAmerica
Europe Others
68%33%
28% 22% 17% 9% 6% 5% 4% 3%6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2%8%
7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%10% 8% 10% 12% 14%
16%
9%12%
14%13%
15%
18%
22%
26%
46%
47%
46%
62%
61%
58%
54%
49%
3.3
5.0
7.0
13.8
16.6
19.8
22.8
25.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980
1990
2000
2011
2020
2030
2040
2050
China
India
ASEAN
Other Asia
Korea
Japan
Gt
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
52% 61% 59%
68% 60% 55% 51%
44%
15%14%
19%
16%
19%20% 20%
19%
4%
8%
12%14%
13%
3%
5%
6%
10%
2%
2%
2%
3%
30%23%
18%
9%
8%
7%
8%
11%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Adv. Tech.
1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
Mtoe
Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Primary Energy Demand in China Reference Adv. Tech.
11
775 Mtoe (17.5%)
Reduction
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
19
90
20
05
20
11
20
20
20
30
20
40
86
187
100
53
28
20
(2005=100)
47
30
37
47% decrease
from 2005 level
Reference Adv. Tech.
53% decrease
from 2005 level
National Target : 40 to 45% reduction by 2020
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
7.7
8.6
12.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
Energy Saving (47%)
Biofuel (2%)
Wind, Solar,etc (9%)
Nuclear(13%)
Fuel Switching (5%)
CCS(24%)
Gt-CO2
Reference
Adv. Tech.
CO2 Emissions in China
2040
▲ 4.5 Gt-CO2
(▲ 37%)
CCS 24%
Energy saving
47%
Fuel Switching
29%
Reference Adv. Tech.
12 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
CO2 World Emissions (by Reduction Measure)
13
Ref. Scenario Adv. Tech. & CCS Scenario
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
35%
37%
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GtCO2
CO2 Emission Pathways for the Overshoot Scenario
(Source)
Clarke et al. (2009), “International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios”, Energy Economics, vol. 31, pp. 64-81.
14
Reference Scenario
Advanced Technology Scenario
The range for the 450 ppm CO2-eq.
scenarios in EMF22
Gt-CO2
• At the 22nd Working Group of the EMF (Energy Modeling Forum), the world’s 10 major integrated assessment models participated in considering long-term GHG concentration and the presence or absence of an overshoot.
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013)
IEA 450 scenario 21.6 Gt by 2035
*
*
All Rights reserved IEEJ
*
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
II. Analyzing Changes Induced by the Shale Revolution
Nikkei (13 November 2013)
Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods
Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2%
European Union
United StatesChina IndiaMiddle East
Japan
-3%
-10%
+3%
+2% +2%+1%
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
Japan and EU will lose Export Share by 30%: IEA’s Outlook for 2035
Japan faces Two Challenges (Interview with Mme. van der Hoeven )
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
-10 -5 0 5 10
North America
Latin America
China
Oceania
Other Asian countries
FSU
Africa
Middle East
Mb/d: Mb/d of oil equivalent
Natural gas
Oil
16
Changes in Oil/Natural Gas Output
2040 Changes in the Enhanced Development Scenario from the Reference Scenario
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
17
Assumed Crude Oil/Natural Gas Prices
Enhanced Development and Reference Scenarios
Crude oil
Natural gas (Japan)
Natural gas (U.S.)
Natural gas (Europe)
Na
tura
l g
as (
$2
01
2/M
Btu
) C
rud
e o
il ($2
01
2/b
bl)
Reference
Enhanced Development
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Natural gas
Oil Coal Biomass and
waste
Nuclear Wind, solar, etc.
Hydro
Enhanced Development
Unconventional
Conventional
Reference
18
Primary Energy Consumption Growth
2011-2040 in the Enhanced Development Scenario
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
19
Energy-related CO2 Emissions
2040
0.2
0.10.0
0.4
-0.8
44.8444.77
43.6
43.8
44.0
44.2
44.4
44.6
44.8
45.0
Reference Fuel switching Nuclear drop Drop in solar, wind, etc.
Biofuel drop Consumption growth through
price drops
Enhanced Development
Gt
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
20
Changes in Net Oil/Natural Gas Imports
Oil
Natural gas
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Latin America
North America
Oceania China Other Asian countries
European countries
FSU Africa Middle East
Mb/d2011
2040Reference
2040Enhanced
DevelopmentNet export growth or shifting to net exports
Net import drop Net import growth
Net export drop
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Oceania Africa North America
Latin America
China Other Asian countries
European countries
Middle East FSU
Bcm2011
2040Reference
2040Enhanced
DevelopmentNet export growth or shifting to net exports Net import drop Net import growth
Net export drop
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
21
Impact on Real GDP
Changes in 2040 from the Reference Scenario
Note: Effects of a shift from the Reference Scenario to the Enhanced Development Scenario
Reference: Accumulation after U.S. shale revolution
Latin America
India
Oceania
China
Southeast Asia
USA
Japan
Europe
FSU
Middle East
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
22
Conclusion
Enhanced unconventional energy resources development
• The expansion of unconventional natural gas production will lower prices and as such, promote fuel switching from all other energy sources to natural gas as well as growth in natural gas consumption. The deceleration of nuclear and renewable energy power plant development also limit the CO2 emission cut to a very small level.
• Progress in the development of unconventional resources including shale gas and oil will benefit most of the world economies, facilitating the energy supply-demand balance and dropping prices.
• A net fossil fuel export increase will have a great impact on the Americas. Net importers including China will benefit from slower import value growth. Japan will expand natural gas imports in volume while reducing them in value thanks to price drops. Japan will also economically benefit from export growth in line with greater global economic growth.
Energy conservation and climate change measures (CO2 emission reduction)
• The maximum promotion of energy conservation and non-fossil energy introduction is required to address climate change issues. Reducing fossil fuel consumption through conservation measures will lower CO2 emissions and stabilize energy supply markets.
• The maximum promotion of existing energy conservation and climate change measures and the introduction of CCS technologies will allow energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 to be cut by 20% from 2011. But the target of halving emissions by 2050 will fail to be attained.
• It would be difficult to reduce the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases to 450 ppm (CO2 equivalent) by the end of the 21st century. However, it will still be possible. To substantially reduce CO2 emissions, innovative technologies including bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and carbon capture and use (CCU) technologies like artificial photosynthesis will have to be developed and diffused.
Toward developing future energy systems
• Global energy consumption will increase 1.5-fold over the next 30 years. Particularly, Asia will remarkably expand energy demand and raise its import dependence rate, increasing its presence as an energy consumer in the international energy market.
• How to use energy is greatly changing due to progress in unconventional resources development and non-fossil energy promotion trends. Nevertheless, pursuing objectives such as the Three Es plus S (energy security, environmental protection and economic efficiency plus security) remain important.
• Japan can play great roles in leading the world and Asia to achieve sustainable development. Japan must further enhance energy conservation and low-carbon technologies (including renewable and nuclear energy technologies and their security) to meet the needs and expand their deployment.
All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Thank you very much for your attention!
Summary and PPT available on IEEJ website! http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/whatsnew/413.html Asia / World Energy Outlook 2013
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Major Assumptions: Gross Domestic Product
24
10.0
6.2
2.1
6.2 5.8
5.2
2.7 2.62.1
3.2 3.4
2.4
4.1
7.5
2.9
5.26.1
1.4
2.7 2.5
4.6
2.3
3.2
1.5
4.5
3.1
1.9
4.44.9
2.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12C
hin
a
Ind
ia
Ja
pa
n
Ko
rea
Ta
iwa
n
AS
EA
N
No
rth
A
me
rica
La
tin
A
me
rica
OE
CD
E
uro
pe
Afr
ica
Mid
dle
E
ast
OE
CD
No
n-
OE
CD
Asia
excl.
Ja
pa
n
Wo
rld
1980-2011 2011-2040
Average annual growth rate (%)
• The overall world economy is assumed to continue to grow steadily over the medium to long term by almost 3%.
• China’s economic growth is anticipated to decelerate over time, primarily reflecting a decline in its currently abundant working population.
• Meanwhile, India and ASEAN countries with younger populations, are expected to benefit from a growing labor force and will achieve higher economic growth through 2040.
All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Ja
pa
n
AS
EA
N
Oth
er A
sia
n
co
un
trie
s
No
rth
A
me
rica
La
tin
A
me
rica
OE
CD
E
uro
pe
No
n-O
EC
D
Eu
rop
e
Afr
ica
Mid
dle
Ea
st
Oce
an
ia
1980 2011 2040Million persons
• Population is expected to increase mainly in developing (non-OECD) countries. • China’s population will gradually age and peak out around 2030. Meanwhile, population will rapidly increase in
India and Africa, thanks to medical technology and food nutrition improvement. • India will replace China as the most populated country in Asia (and the world) around 2025; population should
reach 1.59 billion in 2040.
2011
1.34 bln ↓
2040
1.41 bln (Up 0.07)
China
India
2011
1.24 bln ↓
2040
1.59 bln (Up 0.35)
*Prepared based on U.N. population projections, etc.
2011 2040
World 7.0 bln 9.0 bln
Asia 3.8 bln 4.6 bln
Major Assumptions: Population
25 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Advanced Technology Scenario Assumptions
【Demand Side Technology】 ■ Industry Under sectoral and other approaches, best available technologies on industrial processes (for steelmaking, cement, paper-pulp and oil refining) will be deployed globally
■ Transport Clean energy vehicles (highly fuel efficient vehicles, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles) will diffuse further.
■ Building Efficient electric appliances (refrigerators, TVs, etc.), highly efficient water-heating systems (heat pumps, etc.), efficient air conditioning systems and efficient lighting will diffuse further, with heat insulation enhanced.
In this scenario, each country will further enhance policies on energy security and address global warming. Technological developments and international technology transfers will be promoted to further expand the diffusion of innovative technologies.
【Supply Side Technology】 ■ Renewable Energy Wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) generation, biomass power generation and bio-fuel will diffuse further.
■ Nuclear Energy Promotion Nuclear power plant construction will be accelerated with operating rates improved.
■ Highly Efficient Fossil-fired Power Plant Technology Coal-fired power plants (USC, IGCC, IGFC) and natural gas MACC (More Advanced Combined Cycle) plants will diffuse further.
■ CCS CCS deployment will expand in the power generation sector (new and old coal-fired and gas-fired plants) and the industrial sector (steelmaking, cement and other plants that emit massive GHGs).
Introducing and Enhancing Environmental Regulations and National Targets
Environment Tax, Emissions Trading, RPS, Subsidy Provisions, FIT, Efficiency Standards, Automobile Fuel Efficiency Standard, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Energy Efficiency Labeling, National Targets, etc.
R&D Investment Expansion, International Cooperation on Energy Efficient Technology (steelmaking, cement and other areas), Support for Establishing Energy Efficiency Standards, etc.
Promoting Technology Development and International Technology Cooperation
26 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
58
229
446
668
905
1,710
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2011 2020 2030 2040 2040
GW
History Forecast
Asia
OECDEurope
N. America
Tech. Adv
Photovoltaic and Wind Power Generation (World)
• Renewable energy power generation will expand due to technological development and supportive measures such as feed-in tariff systems and subsidization. •In the Reference Scenario, global photovoltaic generation capacity will expand six-fold from 2011 to 548 GW in 2040 and wind power generation capacity will increase four-fold from 2011 to 905 GW in 2040. Photovoltaic and wind power generation’s share of global generation will increase from 2.3% in 2011 to 5.9% in 2040. •In the Advanced Technology Scenario, photovoltaic power generation capacity in 2040 will be 2.7-fold more than in the Reference Scenario, standing at 1,458 GW. Wind power generation capacity will be 1.9-fold more at 1,710 GW.
2011 229 GW
↓
2040 Ref. Adv. Tech.
905 GW 1,710GW
(Up 4-fold) (Up 7-fold)
Wind Power Photovoltaic (PV)
Wind Power
Photovoltaic (PV)
World Asia
World Asia
2011 61 GW
↓
2040 Ref. Adv. Tech.
390 GW 801GW
(Up 6-fold) (Up 13-fold)
2011 9.0GW
↓
2040 Ref. Adv. Tech.
172 GW 453GW (Up 19-fold) (Up 50-
fold)
2011 89 GW
↓
2040 Ref. Adv. Tech.
548 GW 1,458GW (Up 6-fold) (Up 16-fold)
27
5 89
226
351
548
1,458
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 2011 2020 2030 2040 2040
GW
History Forecast
Asia
OECDEurope
N. America
Tech. Adv.
Africa
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013)
All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Adv. Tech.
1980 2013 2020 2030 2040 2040
GW
Asia
North America
OECD Europe
FSU, non-OECD
Europe
Middle East, Africa
Latin America
23%
31%
33%
11%
41%
22%
20%
13%
47%
17%
18%
11%
History← →Forecast
Global Nuclear Power Generation Capacity
• Global nuclear power generation capacity in 2040 will grow by 235 GW in the Reference Scenario and by 495 GW in the Advanced Technology Scenario. Asia will lead the growth and account for nearly half of the global capacity in 2040 in the Advanced Technology
Scenario.
2013
389 GW
↓
2040
Reference
624 GW (Up 235 GW)
Adv. Tech.
885 GW (Up 495 GW)
World
495 GW
235 GW
28 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
2011
36MB/D
↓
2040
53MB/D
(up 17MB/D)
2011
48MB/D
↓
2040
62MB/D
(up 14MB/D)
OPEC Non-OPEC
Share in Increase of
Global Oil Production
OPEC 54% (up 17MB/D )
Non-OPEC 41% (up 14MB/D)
More than half of the increase in global oil demand will be supplied by OPEC production. OPEC share will increase to 45% by 2040. Middle East is facing domestic oil demand increases. If the efforts towards more efficient use of energy or swift investment to add production capacity are delayed, global oil demand and supply balance will be tightening in the future.
29
Oil Production Outlook
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
Mb/d
2011 2030 20402011-40
(%)
OPEC 36 46 53 1.4
Middle East OPEC 26 33 38 1.3
Non-Middle East OPEC 10 14 15 1.7
Non-OPEC 48 59 62 0.9
North America 12 17 17 1.4
Latin America 7 10 11 1.4
EU, Eurasia 17 19 21 0.6
Middle East 2 2 2 0.0
Africa 2 3 3 0.7
Asia 8 8 8 0.1
China 4 4 5 0.5
Indonesia 1 1 1 0.3
India 1 1 1 -1.1
Oceania 1 1 1 2.4
Process Gain 2 3 3 1.7
World Total (Reference) 86 108 119 1.1
World Total (Enhanced Scenario) 107 117 1.1
Reference Enhanced Scenario
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
30
To meet the increasing demand for natural gas, 2/3 of the production increase will come from the Middle East, CIS, Africa, China and Australia. Commercial production of unconventional natural gas including shale gas will increase in Argentina, Mexico, Middle East and CIS. The share of unconventional gas in natural gas production will reach 25% by 2040.
2040: Gas Production
5,411Bcm
Increase from 2011
2,017 Bcm
Share in
increase
Middle East &
CIS
35%
America
23%
Unconventional
Share
Year 2011
11%
↓ Year 2040
27%
Gas Production Outlook
Bcm
2011 Actual 2040 Reference Scenario
of whichUnconven
tional
Share ofUnconventional (%)
of whichUnconven
tional
Share ofUnconventional (%)
North America 808 364 45% 1,043 782 75%
Latin America 218 0 0% 449 127 28%
Middle East 523 0 0% 871 24 3%
EU 287 0 0% 300 19 6%
CIS 868 0 0% 1,229 66 5%
Africa 200 0 0% 420 80 19%
China 103 0 0% 352 127 36%
India 46 0 0% 96 29 30%
Asean 203 0 0% 385 80 21%
Indonesia 81 0 0% 126 22 17%
Malaysia 56 0 0% 85 8 10%
Other Asia 75 0 0% 74 5 6%
Australia 51 6 12% 193 103 53%
World Total 3,384 370 11% 5,411 1,442 27%
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
Reference
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
89119
442
645
783
866
108138
200 195 210 234
(19) (20)
242
449
573 631
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1980 1990 2011 2020 2030 2040
Demand Production Net Import
Mtoe
-21%-16%
55%
70%
73%
Dependency on Imported Oil
73%
Oil Demand and Supply in China
Adv. Tech.
Net Oil Import
2011 5.0MB/D
↓ 2040
Reference
12.9MB/D
(2.6times)
Adv. Tech.
10.1MB/D
(2.0times)
Net oil import is projected to expand from 242 million ton (5.0mb/d) in 2011 to 631million ton (12.9 mb/d) in 2040. As a result, net oil import ratio will reach 73% in 2040 from 55% in 2011. In the Adv. Tech. Scenario, oil demand will grow at a relatively slow rate, but net oil import ratio will still increase to 71% in 2040. In order to sustain domestic oil production, continued investments are required to explore and develop oil fields in the western part of China and offshore.
31 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
71%
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Final Energy Demand in China
Energy demand of heavy industry which has been strong up to now will grow relatively slowly in the future. By contrast, energy demand of the household, buildings, and transport sectors will increase substantially. Although the share of the household and commercial sectors will reach 34% in 2040 (from 31% in 2011) , the per capita energy demand of those sectors will still be lower than the OECD average. In the Tech. adv. Scenario, energy demand of the household, building, and transport sectors is expected to have big potential for reduction.
32
38% 37% 40%
48% 42% 38% 35%33%
5% 5%10%
13%18%
20% 21%
22%
55%52%
42%
31%
31%
32%34%
33%
2%6%
8%
8%
9%
10%
10%
11%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Adv. Tech.
1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040
Mtoe
Non-energy
Building etc.
Transport
Industry
Reference Adv. Tech.
432 Mtoe (16%)
Reduction
Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
31
733
1,266
743
157
99
132
195217
348
423
54
408
756
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1980 2011 2040 2040
2,312
1,032
2,216
71%
55%
34%
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Renewables
Adv. Tech.
66
164
3,723
6,100
3,579
837
527
954
1,406699
1,096
1,332
700
1,122
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1980 2011 2040 2040
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Renewables
79%
4,716
9,695
Adv. Tech.
7,974
63%
45%301
Power Generation Sector (China)
Total power generation capacity will increase on average by 44 GW per year, from 1,032 GW in 2010 to 2,312 GW in 2040. The share of coal-fired power plant will gradually decline to 55% in 2040, still representing almost half of the world coal-fired power generation capacity. Total power generation will more than double, increasing from 4,716 TWh in 2011 to 9,695TWh in 2040. Power generation from gas-fired, nuclear and renewables will substantially increase, while hydro power will represent moderate growth. The share of coal-fired will decline from 79% in 2011 to 63% in 2040. In the Adv. Tech. Scenario, generation from nuclear, hydro and renewable energy will sharply expand to substitute a further decline in coal-fired generation.
【Capacity (GW)】 【Power Generation (TWh)】
Reference Reference
33 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ
IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.
Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp
Recommended