View
220
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
1/32
Japans Climate PolicyWill We be able to Achieve the Target?
October 19, 2007
Yurika Ayukawa
WWF Japan, Climate Change Programme
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
2/32
1,300
,20
,10
,00
MtCO2
.
Kyoto Target 20082012 2004Base Year (1990)
8.4%moreemissionreductionneeded
2005
1360 7.8%
1261
1357 +7.6%
Sinks 3.8%
Kyoto Mechanism 1.6%
Temporal increase due to
nuclear power plant shutdown
(+4.8%
(+5.5%
.% .%
Japanese GHG Emissions and Plans forReduction
Graph made by Ministry ofEnvironment, May 29, 2007,
translated by WWF Japan
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
3/32
Kyoto Target Achievement Plan(2005)
Main Policies
Energy Conservation Law (incl. Top Runner Program)Mandatory GHG Emissions Accounting, Reporting, and Disclosure
(all large&middle sized facilities)
More Nuclear Power (by 2010, 2 new NPP in addition to the current55)
Renewable Portfolio Standard(2014Target: 1.63% of Total ElectricitSupply, revised Jan.29, 07)
Voluntary Actions
Keidanrens Voluntary Actions (Covers 40% of Japans TotalEmissions)
Team Minus 6% (for the general public)Green Logistics Partnership (Transport)
Home Energy Management System, Building Energy ManagementSystem (ESCO)
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
4/32
Whats Wrong with the Plan?
Mainly based on Voluntary Actions which do not guarantee
real reductionsMostly targeted to improve carbon intensity per production,
sales turnover, or energy consumption, and not to reduceabsolute amount of emissions
Totally dependent on more nuclear power plants to reducethe carbon intensity per kilowatt hour of electricity
No market-based instruments such as carbon tax oremissions trading scheme
No scheme for the big emitters
No incentive scheme for the increasing sectors such asoffice buildings, households, and transport
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
5/32
Review Process of the Kyoto TargetAchievement Plan
Review Committee comprised of committees from METI and MOEheld more than 20 meetings since last November.
Related stakeholders from the government, industries, academics,NGOs were invited to make statements and proposals on thecurrent policies, achievements and insufficiencies.
The Points of Discussion were publicized in April, and put to
public consultation.
Additional measures were discussed and an Interim Report waspublicized in August and put to public consultation.
Final Summary is due in November
Final Report due in December
The New Plan will be adopted by the Cabinet in March, 2008.
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
6/32
The Review Process is TotallyInsufficient
Although the Report admitted that the current policies were not enough
to meet the Kyoto target, the measures discussed are still onvoluntary schemes, and no mandatory schemes or economicmeasures are discussed.
The main pillar of the New Plan will be to expand the boundaries ofVoluntary Actions to all sectors.
There is no scheme for the big emitters except Keidanrens
Voluntary Actions There is still no incentives for the increasing transport,
commercial and household sectors
Renewable Energies are not regarded as an essential part of the CO2reduction policy.
Totally dependent on nuclear power. Though there has been many
accidents, frauds, and earthquakes which forced the nuclear powerplants to shut down, it still plans to increase the operational rate upto about 88%, which is absolutely unrealistic and dangerous.
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
7/32
Where does Japanese CO2 emit from? Direct Emissions for 2005
Industry
29%
Industrial
Process
4%
Transport
19%
Commercial
8%
Households5%
Waste
3% Power
Generation
32%
Made from Greenhouse GasInventory Office, May 29, 2007
Total of the Bluepart is 65
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
8/32
Indirect Emissions Sources compared to 1990
Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office of Japan, May,2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Powe
rSector
Industry
Tran
sport
Comm
ercial
Hous
ehold
s
Industria
lProcess
Waste
1000tCO2
1990
2005
Industries say these
sectors are theproblem, not them
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
9/32
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
industry passenger
travel
freight
transport
commercial domesticChangesinCO2e
missions;
changesinactivity
(1990=1
Changes in CO2 emissions Changes in activity
CO2 emissions and activity data by sector Emissions by sector should be considered with activity data
Activity in the industrial sector has leveled off, but in the commercial and
domestic sectors it has risen sharply
Source Institute for Energy Economics Japan (IEEJ) Energy and economic statistics
survey 2007 and tentative figures for 2005 GHG emissions
Changes between 1990-2005 by sector in CO2 emissions and economic activity>
Indices of activity are IIP, traffic volume of passenger transport and freight transport, floor area, numberof households, respectively.)
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
10/32
Is Japan the Most Efficient Country?Trends in industrys energy efficiency
0
20
40
6080
100
120
140
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Unit:toe/$US
millio Japan
EU15
US
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Final energy consumption of each countrys industrial sector/Real GDP (based onexchange rates): changes between 1960-2004
Source IEA (2006)Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2003-2004. IEA/OECD
Japans superior performance in the 1970-80s is clearly starting tobe overtaken, with the UK surpassing Japan in 2004
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
11/32
Japanese manufacturing industrys energy efficiency
Source: IEEJ. (2007) Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan (2007 edition). EnergyConservation Center, Japan.
Changes in energy intensity based on IIP Indices of industrial production) 1970-2005
Following the oil shock, energy efficiency improved
After 1990 it has stagnated (and somewhat worsened)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
FEC/IIP
(1973=100)
Manufacturing Industry
Steel
Chemical
Cement
Paper and Pulp
Fiscal Year
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
12/32
CO2 emissions/ GDP ratio: international comparison(exchange rate)
In total, Japan emits less CO2 than other developed countries
Transport and domestic sectors have particularly low emissions. Industry emitsmore than the EU, and is comparable with the US.
Total CO2 emissions/GDP ratio (exchange rate): direct emissions 2004>
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Japan
U
S
Germ
an
UK
France
Italy
CO2emission
s/GDPratio(tonn
m
illion)
other
other agricultural
domestic
commercial
transport
industryenergy conversion
Source Japan, EU, US submissions on GHG emissions to UNFCCC IEA(2006) Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2003-2004. IEA/OECD.
1.0 1.6 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.7
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
13/32
Source: Japan, EU, US submissions of GHG Inventories to UNFCCC; IEA Energybalances of OECD Countries 2003-2004GDP
As a whole, Japans emission intensity is the same as the EUs.
Japans transport and domestic emission intensities are low but industrysintensity is high compared with the US and EU
CO2 emissions/GDP ratio: international comparison(purchasing power parity)
Total CO2 emissions/GDP ratio (purchasing power parity): direct emissions 2004>
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Japa
U
S
Germ
an
UK
Fran
c
Italy
CO2/GDPratio(tonne/$U
other
other agricultural
domestic
commercial
transport
industryenergy conversion
1.00 0.92 1.61 1.06 0.91 0.69 0.89
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
14/32
CO2 emissions by sector: international comparison
Japan`s industrial emissions constitute a higher proportion of totalemissions than in any other G8 country
The proportion of emissions from domestic and transport sectors is lowcompared with other countries
CO2 emissions by sector: international comparison (direct emissions, 2004)
0% 50% 100%
Japan
15
US
Germany
UK
France
Italy
energy conversion
industry
transport
commercial
domestic
other agricultural
other
Source Japan, EU, US submissions of GHG Inventories to UNFCCC
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
15/32
International comparison of fuel mix in industry sector
Among developed countries,Japan stands out as a heavy user of coal in the industry sector
International comparison of fuel mixes in industry (2004))
0% 50% 100%
Italy
France
UK
Germany
US
EU15
Japan
coking coal
fuel coal
oil
gasnatural gas
electricity
thermal
Source: IEA (2006) Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2003-2004. IEA /OECD.
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
16/32
International comparison of coal use between 1990 and2004 in industry sector
Changes (1990-2004) in coal use in industry: international comparison
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Japan
EU15
US
Germany
UK
France
Italy
1990
2004
-15%
-53%
-30%
-61%
-69%
-48%
-12%
Unit 1 milliontonnes of oilequivalent
Reduction
rate
Since 1990, Japan has not made progress in switching fuels
Source: IEA (2006) Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2003-2004. IEA /OECD.
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
17/32
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50-52 48-50 46-48 44-46 42-44 40-42 38-40 36-38 34-36 32-34 30-32 28-30 26-28 24-26 22-24
Power generation efficiency
Generationcapa
city[1,0
00kW]
Energy efficiency distribution of thermal powerstations (2003)
Source Kiko Networks estimate based on METI Natural Resources Agency, Electricityand Gas Business Section (2005) Summary of Electricity Supply/Demand in 2004.
ntil all power stations have the same high energy efficiency, the claim that there
Top Runner Factory
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
18/32
. ,07)
Government asked to raise thetargets of 13 industries
However, these industries haveachieved their targets formany years, and some haveeven achieved the newly
established target.
Power Sector and Steel havenot achieved their target,but will buy CDM credits tomeet their targets, though
there is no penalty. This means that the Voluntary
Action is actuallyMandatory.
In this case, without trading,the abatement cost
becomes higher.
industry Increased targetcompared to 90level (%)
Achieved in2006?
Additionalreduction(MtCO
chemical 1020 856.3
paper 1320 217.4
oil 1013 139.3
gas 4659 19
cement 33.8 17.8rubber 06 11.2
glass 1521 10.5
Lime 68 7.1
dyeing 4040.6 5.8cable 2027 5.4
Sanitary 2025 2.4
aluminium 1011 1.8
Copper brass 8.69.05
0.2
Government asked todo more in theVoluntary Action
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
19/32
Kiko Network Survey on facilities emissions, basedon Energy Conservation Law
31% from top emitting 100facilities which disclosedtheir emissions
19% from top 80undisclosed facilities
In total, about top 200facilities emit half ofJapans total emissions
Including other topfacilities, who disclosed(7%) and undisclosed(4%), about 60% comefrom large emittersAugust, 2005 by
Kiko Network
Japans Total CO2
Emissions=1259.4MtCO2(2003)
Small & mediumfacilities &households
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
20/32
Domestic Emissions Trading Systemfor Large Emitters
WWF proposes a Cap&Trade Domestic Emissions TradingSystem as the most cost effective measure to make areal difference
Released the Emissions Trading Scheme ForDecarbonizing Japan (January 24, 2007)
Published it into a book (October, 2007)
For other small and medium emitters, tax, and abaseline & credit system to participate in a domesticCarbon Trading Market are proposed as a climatechange policy mix for Japan.
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
21/32
WWFs Emissions Trading Scheme For
Decarbonizing Japan
GHG coverage: CO2 by Direct Emissions in a Downstreamtype (Power generation, industry use, industrialprocesses)
Cap: 710 million tons CO2 Coverage: 64%
Allocation:Grandfathering + 5% auction + 5% new entrants
reserve (in the future,benchmarking+auctioning)Grandfathering to each sector will be based on average of
base year 2000-2004
First commitment period: 2008-2012
Allocation to each factory will be a bottom-up approach
based on average of base year, using a ComplianceFactor to adjust the total amount of allocation
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
22/32
WWFs Emissions Trading Scheme For
Decarbonizing Japan
Policy Mix ideas for sectors not directly covered by ETS1) Tax
Tax on the upstream, with 75% exemption for those covered byETS
At the downstream, the tax will be paid indirectly throughincreased price shift
2) Baseline & Credit Trading System Sectors, such as commercial, residential, transport and other
small business will do emission reduction projects and sell the reductioncredit to those covered by ETS
In this case, we propose a Baseline & Credit Reserve in theETS in order to avoid double counting of reduction from electricity andheat
We also propose a Japanese version of the CDM EB to ensure aton is a real ton
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
23/32
Why Emissions Trading is Essential
Abatement cost differs according to companies, enablingcompanies to minimize cost by using the trading system
Guarantees reduction amount by capping large emitters
Can sell the amount of efforts, but can also buy whennecessary, so flexibility is guaranteed
Social/Economical structure will change to realize a low-carbon society
If linked with other regions or countries with similar system,the abatement cost becomes even lower
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
24/32
ETS essential from an Internationalperspective and National interests
EU has started its internal emissions trading scheme fromJanuary, 2005, and plans for the second phase isalready established.
Norway, Canada, Australian States and 10 Eastern Statesin the USA as well as California and 5 western statestogether with 2 Canadian provinces are developing asimilar system, aiming to link together with EU ETS.
A global network of a regional emissions trading schememay happen
Japan needs to know that we are about to beleft behind!
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
25/32
How are Key Actors in JapanResponding to this?
The Ministry of Environment (MoE)Considering it positively; implementing an experimental,
voluntary scheme since 2005, with subsidies for those whomake commitments to reduce.
A learning process about marginal abatement costs
The new Environment Minister Kamoshita isforward looking towards Emissions Trading,and has stated that the MOEs voluntaryscheme should be used as a policy tool to be
expanded to include larger participants, eitheras incentives or regulation. (September 26, 2007)
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
26/32
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
27/32
METIs Observation
It does not totally reject the idea of ETS.
But has serious doubts about the effectiveness of ETSbased on their observation about EU ETS.
1.They sent a mission together with MOE and Keidanren to
conduct hearings about the situation of EU ETS.2.Conclusion was, its too early for Japan to introduce such
a system.
3.They would try to expand and strengthen Voluntary
Actions more, while comprehensively consider aboutthe scheme further.
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
28/32
Renewable Energy not Seriously Considered as anAbatement measure in Japan(International Comparison)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Australia
Canada
Denm
ark
France
Germany
Japan
Spain
Sweden
Unite
dKing
dom
USA
1990
2001
2004
Made from IEA (2006) Renewable Information 2006. IEA/OECD by WWF Japan
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
29/32
Wind Power Capacity by Countries
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
10M
W
Germany Spain USA Denmark Japan
Source:Wind Power Monthly, July, 2006 made by WWF Japan
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
30/32
Solar Panel Installation by Countries
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1
0
M
W
Germany Japan USA Australia Netherlands Spain
Source Solar Generation Associationhttp://www.jpea.gr.jp/4/4-2-4.htm
http://www.jpea.gr.jp/4/4-2-4.htmhttp://www.jpea.gr.jp/4/4-2-4.htm8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
31/32
Energy Technology Perspectives 2006(IEA)Scenarios and Strategies to 2050
8/6/2019 Yurika Ayukawa Japan s Climate Policy
32/32
Thank you very muchhttp://www.wwf.or.jp/climate
climate@wwf.or.jp
WWF-Canon / Adam OSWELL
http://www.wwf.or.jp/climatehttp://www.wwf.or.jp/climateRecommended