Future of Bitcoin

Future of Bitcoin

Ron GrossBitcoil

Present History

4 years into the adoption curve

X1000 price increase since 2010

Services

Legal / regulatory

Present History - Users

Present History - Media

Present History - Price

The future affects the present

Future predictions affect the present

Bitcoin is a Bootstrapped Currency

Three possible futures (at least)

Bitcoin fails

Bitcoin stagnates

Bitcoin wins

Bitcoin Fails

Bitcoin has powerful, well-funded enemies Payment processors Banks Governments ?

Various attacks are possible Protocol attacks (e.g. 51%) Price manipulation Regulatory attacks Hacking

Bitcoin Fails

People lose faith in Bitcoin

A race to the bottom – prices spiral to $0

The way down might take a while, like the way up

Bitcoin Stagnates

Bitcoin prices reach a stable price level

It becomes some small percent of the world economy

Used for some purposes, mostly on the internet

Growth in user base and monetary value halts

Bitcoin Stagnates

Bitcoin is useful even if not “everybody” is using it.

Bitcoin users can still: Hold their own money Send it to whoever they want Use advanced features

People move in and out of the Bitcoin economy at will

Bitcoin Wins

More and more people see the benefits

They trade Fiat money for BTC

Bitcoin is a major part of the world economy

Safety

Banks and payment processors cooperate instead of compete

Insured BTC deposits

Government issues Fiat backed by BTC (Gold Standard 2.0)

Usability

Bitcoin becomes boring

Several great wallets to choose from

Everything Just Works

Exchanges

Buy Bitcoins at your supermarket / bank

Distributed exchanges

Lower exchange fees

Managed wallets

Competition

Bitcoin is just the first cryptocurrency

Ripple is also a competitor

Maybe something else entirely?

Mining & Protocol

Block reward drops to zero around 2050

Transaction fee structure change

Hash function upgraded(Quantum resistant)

Other changes (e.g. micro-satoshi)

Some things remain fixed (21 million coins)

Questions?

ron.gross@gmail.com

ripper234.com/about

References

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses

http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/2259/what-would-be-an-estimate-of-the-value-gained-if-the-whole-world-started-using-b

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.png

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork_Wishlist

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl

http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1&timespan=all&scale=1&address=