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TheFutureofTrade|TheEmergingViewInsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussionsAroundtheWorld
ContextTradeisoneofthekeythemesaddressedintheFutureAgendaprogramme.
Inrecentyearsithasgrownininfluence,recogni0on,focusandhenceconcernforawiderangeofindividuals,organisa0onsandgovernments.
FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram
thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesoallcanbebeFerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.
LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand
boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeFerpreparedforthefuture.
FutureAgenda1.0TopInsightsfor2020Fromthe2010program,52keyinsightsonthenextdecadewereshared
widelyandhavebeenextensivelyusedbyorganisa0onsaroundtheworldtosupportstrategydevelopment,innova0onandleadershipthinking.
FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin
25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.
FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS
FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS25TOPICS40COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS4500ORGANISATIONS
FutureofTradeDiscussionsDiscussionsonthefutureoftradewereundertakeninpartnershipwiththeDMCC.InsightsfromeventsintheUK,HongKong,SouthAfricaandIndiaplusmanyfromothertopicshavealladdedmoreviewsfromaroundtheworld.
Ini0alPerspec0vesQ42014
GlobalDiscussionsQ1/2/32015
InsightSynthesisQ42015
SharingOutputQ12016
TheFutureofTrade|TheEmergingViewThisdocumentprovidesanoverviewofwhatweheardfrommul0pleexpertvoicesaroundtheworld–onthefutureoftrade,howitischanging,whatis
drivingthischangeandhowitmayevolveoverthenextdecade.
SixKeyThemesAcrossthemul0plediscussions,issuesrelatedtotrade
seemtobetouchinguponandconnec0ngwithsixunderlying,andinterwoven,themeswithdifferentemphasisindifferentcountries.
Shi^ingPowerandInfluence
ImpactofDigital
FundingforTrade
StandardsDrivingTrade
AccesstoTalent
SystemEfficiency
SHIFTINGPOWERANDINFLUENCE
ANewOrderWearewitnessingthetransi0ontoaneworder:Newna0onalinterests,
newtradingroutes,newproducts/servicesareallemerging.Howtoensurethedevelopmentoftradeinthisenvironmentwillbekeytosuccess.
CentreofGlobalEconomicPowerThecentreofgravityofeconomicpowercon0nuesshi^ingeastwards,backtowhereitwas200yearsago.Recentsuperpowersseektomoderatethepaceofchangebutthereali0esofpopula0onandresourceloca0onsareimmoveable.
ChangesinGlobalLeadershipAsdemographicshi^s,newalliancesandeconomicchallengesre-align
globalpowerandinfluence,newleadersemergeandcontrolintheworldchangesinfavourofsome-butwithotherss0llholdingthebalance.
ChinaasAsia’sVoiceDespitegrowthofotherASEANna0ons,forthenextdecadeChinaremainsthecleareconomicleaderintheregion–becomingmoreinfluen0alasthe
primarysourceofcapitalandthevoiceofAsiaontheworldstage.
SleepingEagle-WakingDragonChinauseseconomicmightandso^diplomacytoreshapetheworldorder,usurpthedollaranddominateworldtrade.Asaresultmigra0ontoAsia
increases,changingestablishedmarketplaces.Africawillsufferasaresult.
TheStartofChangefortheYuanSpecialDrawingRights(SDRs)areastartforChina’snewglobalroleastheyeffec0velymeanofficialrecogni0onbytheIMFthattheYuanisac0ngasareservecurrencydespiteChina’sextensivecapitalcontrols.
CiUesNotCountriesCi0esaremoreimportantthancountriesandincreasinglysetthestandardsasculturalconnec0onspredominateoverna0onaliden00esandurbanmarketsgrouparoundcommonissues.
TheRoleofAfricaLedbyagrowingnumberofbreakawaycountriesshowingeconomicandpoli0calprogress,thenext1bnconsumersinAfricajointheglobalmarket.
Barrierstotradeareli^edandinfrastructureisimproved.
InternaUonalSecurity–aPublic/PrivatePartnership?Increasingglobalunrestandrisinginterna0onalfundamentalismchallengetraderoutesandplacesofproduc0on.Corporatesenhancegovernmentsecuritytoprotectassetsandmaintainsafeworkingenvironments.
STANDARDSDRIVINGTRADE
Globalvs.BilateralAgreementsAkeyques0onforthenextdecadewillbewhetherwewillbeabletoachievetrueglobalagreements,orwillbilateraltradeagreementsremainthewaybywhichna0onscanbeFermanageandcontroleconomicinfluence?
AppropriateRegulaUonMoreappropriateregula0ondriveshot-spotsoftradegrowththroughspecialeconomiczonesandfree-zonesthatresultinthemovementofbusiness,peopleandwealth.Protec0onistregimesloseoutasaresult.
StandardsProtecUngInterestsGlobalandregionalstandardsareusedasatooloftradeprotec0onismwithinspecificsectorsandmarkets.Locallyfocusedregula0onsandprotocolsfavour
mul0na0onalsandincumbentsbutarebarrierstonewexporters.
TheFallofTradiUonalTradeInsUtuUonsCivilsocietyandchangingbusinessnormschallengethecalcified,outpacedandincreasinglyirrelevantstate,governmentandglobalins0tu0ons.Thedigital,opensource,IPsharingeconomyplaysbydifferentrulesandagreements.
NewTradeDialogueAslegacyins0tu0onsbecomeirrelevant,inorderfortradetoflourish,thereisaneedfornewformsofsocialinterac0onandabilitytocommunicateacrosscultures.Thisemergesaroundnew,highgrowthtradingroutes.
AutomatedTradeBeFerandmoreautoma0oniscoupledwiththegrowthofsensorsandotherM2Mmobiletechnologiestomakemoreefficientconnec0ons
betweenitemsandcustomsagencies.Costsdeclineandspeedincreases.
GrowthofSpecialEconomicZonesAlthoughsomeseelimitstotheirapplica0on,goingforwardSpecial
EconomicZonesareexpectedtoplayacon0nuedmajorroleinprovidingthefacili0esforaccelera0ngchangeandimprovingtradeefficiency.
FUNDINGFORTRADE
NewTradingRoutesThenextdecadewillseethepost-warrouteseclipsedbythepowerofthe
IndianOceanregionwithnewportconstruc0onplusproposedrailwaysfromcoast-to-coastacrossSouthAmericashowingtheshapeofthingstocome.
CapitalAvailabilityToovercomecon0nuedconstraintsonbanks,theneedforbeFer
SMElendingseesmorepeer-to-peerini0a0ves,smootherregula0onandmoreflexibleaccesstocapital–especiallyinemergingmarkets.
Cross-BorderCommerceCross-bordercommerceisgrowingfasterthandomes0ccommerceandsowillbecomeincreasinglyimportantandinfluen0al.Cross-borderflowofgoods,
servicesandfinancecouldincreasethreefoldto$85trillionby2025.
SeamlessUbiquitousPaymentsTheabilityto‘transactanywhere’withintegrated,sophis0cated
authen0ca0onsuchasbiometricsincreases:Morecontactlesstechnologyandaconvergenceofstandards,enableglobalinforma0onexchanges.
TheFundingChallengeInausterefinancial0mesthereisasignificantchallengefor
governmentsbeingabletofundthemaintenanceoftheexis0ngtransportsystemandinvestmentinnewinfrastructure.
NewInfrastructureInvestmentWith$4trillionofforeignreservesinitssovereignwealthfunds,China
hasplentyofcash.The‘OneRoad,OneBelt’ini0a0vewillre-openancientcommercialtraderouteswiththeWestandredefinetraderoutes
WiderPublicPrivatePartnershipsInregionswheregovernmentisseenasaninefficientprovider,pressureshi^stowardsmorepublicprivatepartnerships.Acrosshealthcare,educa0onandtransport,approachesincludeNGOs,technologyandnewbusinessmodels.
THEIMPACTOFDIGITAL
DigitalMarketplacesSharedbusinessmodelsanddigitalaggregatorsimproveefficiency,eliminatemiddle-menanddrivehigherincomes.Indiamovesbeyond
labourarbitragetobeaproviderofknowledgeandprofessionalservices.
ADataExchangeDataisacurrency,ithasavalueandaprice,andthereforerequiresamarketplace.Anecosystemfortradingdataisemergingandanything
thatisinforma0onisrepresentedinanewdatamarketplace.
RisingCyberSecurityGreaterinterconnec0vityandtheInternetofThingscreatesnew
vulnerabili0esforgovernmentsandcorpora0ons-astheunscrupulousandthecriminalincreasinglyseektoexploitweaknessanddestroysystems.
TheEndofIP?Followingchangeinthemusicindustry,technologiessuchas3Dprin0ngaredecouplingtheproduc0onofcontentfrom
theoriginalcreatorand,indoingso,IPisbecomingirrelevant.
Consumer-DrivenTradeAnewtradeorderleavesbehindthemonolithic,legacyins0tu0onsofthepost-warera:TradeisempoweredfromtheboFom-up,withconsciousci0zenshipdrivingmorenimbleself-regula0onandareduc0onoftariffs.
ACCESSTOTALENT
TheTalentChallengeAstheglobalworkforcebecomesmoremobile,howwillorganisa0ons
aFractandretaintoptalentandhowwillgovernmentsensuretheyprovidethemwiththerelevanteduca0onthatwillalloweconomiestothrive?
Non-LinearEducaUonPathsBuildingonthesuccessofonline,opencourses,therewillbeariseinnon-
lineareduca0onpaths.Successwillbere-definedtoincludeself-actualisa0onandmicro-badgingwillgaincredibility.Interna0onalbenchmarkswillemerge.
TheHybridExperienceLearningincreasinglytakesplaceviaacombina0onofphysicalspacesand
digitalclassrooms–andflowsseamlesslyacrossboth.Studentsusedifferentpartsoftheirbrainaseduca0onbecomesmuchmoreexperien0al.
InternaUonalMeasuresAccessible,affordabletoolswillemergetomeasureinterna0onalstudent
experienceabroad.Universallyacceptedstandardsincreaseaccountabilityofstudentsandstakeholdersandhelpgrowtheinterna0onaleduca0onmarket.
SkillConcentraUonsThegrowthofthenomadicglobaleliteci0zenshipacceleratesthe
concentra0onofthehigh-skill/high-rewardopportuni0eswithinaselectgroupofglobally-connectedci0zens,whomoveaheadoftheurbanpack.
SYSTEMEFFICIENCY
AutomatedTrucksAutonomousanddriverlesstrucksarenowstar0ngtohaveimpact.Thevisionoflong-distanceplatoonsoftrucksallrunningonintelligenthighwayswithout
drivershasbeenatopicforsomeyears...buttherealityisnotfaraway.
DroneDeliveryForsmall,0me-cri0caldeliveriesaswellasemergencyrelief,theuse
ofdroneswillgrow.Regulatoryandenvironmentalconstraintswillhoweverimpactshort-termwideruseatscale.
OpenSupplyWebsTheshi^fromcentralisedproduc0ontodecentralisedmanufacturingdrivesmanytotakea‘smalleranddistributed’approach:Globalsupplychainsarereplacedbymoreregional,consumer-orientatedsupplywebsandnetworks.
NewExchangeandDistribuUonModelsConnectedconsumersco-createnewformsofexchangeanddistribu0on,whicharesensi0vetoculturaldifferencesando^enlocalinnature.Thisreduceswasteandmaintainstheindividualityandvarietyofproducts.
LastMileEfficiencyThebenefitstobegainedfrombringingthesamelevelofefficiencytothelastmileasthereistothefirstthousandisaFrac0ngaFen0on:Therewillbemorefocusonreducinginefficienciesaroundthefinalpartofdelivery.
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