keeping on trend

Keeping on trendMark Beatson

Chief Economist, CIPD

Cycles and trends (and “events”!)

2

MegatrendsLong-term trends shaping work and working lives

• De-industrialisation and rise of knowledge-based services

• Technology and globalisation• Demographic change• More women in labour market• Increased educational attainment• Decline of collective institutions• Changing employment relationships

Short-term issues (2014/15)

4

More jobs and less unemployment

5Source: Office for Budget Responsibility

Carney’s magic 7%

Youth unemployment and NEETs – this time it’s structural?

6

More skill shortages?

• Usual suspects – skilled trades, IT, manufacturing professionals

• Emerging shortages – professionals in health and social work

• Big spatial variations• 60% of service firms and

81% of manufacturing firms reporting recruitment difficulties (BCC Economic Survey Q4 2013)

7Source: Employers Skills Survey, 2013

More EU in-migrants?

8Sources: ONS; European Commission Winter economic forecast.

Medium term issues (post election)

9

Fiscal consolidation – more to come

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33

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

1978-79 1982-83 1986-87 1990-91 1994-95 1998-99 2002-03 2006-07 2010-11 2014-15 2018-19

Per c

ent o

f GDP

Current receipts Total managed expenditure

Forecast

Source: ONS, OBR. Excludes Royal Mail and APF transfers.

The ‘cost of living’ crisis - a productivity problem?

11Sources: Own calculations from ONS data; Office for Budget Responsibility, December 2013.

Skills – a demand or a supply problem?

12Source: OECD PIAAC survey

Europe won’t go away (even if Scotland does ...)

13Source: British Social Attitudes Survey

Longer-term issues (next 10 years)

14

Workforce ageing accelerates

Sources: CIPD calculations based on ONS 2012 Principal population projections and revised mid-year estimates for 2002 and 2007 , employment rates for May-Jul 2002 and 2012 based on the Labour Force Survey and CIPD assumptions for employment rates for 2017 onwards.

Who will stay ahead of the machines?Job Probability of job

losses in next 20 years

Recreational therapists 0.003

Dentists 0.004

Athletic trainers 0.007

Clergy 0.008

Chemical engineers 0.02

Economists 0.43

Real estate sales agents

0.86

Technical writers 0.89

Retail salespersons 0.92

Accountants and auditors

0.94

Telemarketers 0.99 16

Sources: Frey and Osborne, 2013; European Social Survey 2012 (% reporting 5 or 6 on a six-point scale)

Who’s eaten all the (American) pies? Was it the wolves of Wall Street?

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey; World’s Top Incomes Database.

Thank you!