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FINCOR – Sociedade Corretora, S.A.
Weekly Markets
Perspectives
August 27, 2012
.
Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents mentioned in this document do not
constitute (nor should they be interpreted as to form) any kind of counseling, or investment recommendation, or a record of our trading prices, or an
offer or solicitation to trade in any financial instrument. Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. will not accept any responsibility resulting from any use referring to
said content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.
5,20% 5,70%6,50%
9,80%
15,60%
10,30%9,10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Greece: Government Deficit as % of GDP
Greece – Anything else Sir?-Samaras met Juncker, Merkel and Hollande. All the Leaders said that a decision about a delay to implement
the austerity measures in Greece will be taken only after Troika’s visit to the country in September. They all
said that if Greece wants to remain in the Eurozone, must accomplish the program designed.
-But, as usual, there is already opposition from some European Leaders about giving more time to Greece.
More recently, both the Finance and Economic Ministers of Germany said that they were against this
decision as it would harm creditors and it isn’t a sustainable solution for the country.
Last year Greece had a deficit of 9,1% of your GDP, so until when will this unsustainable situation last?
We are still waiting
for you: ECB-There is a lots of talk in the markets saying that the
ECB will define a limit to the Yields of each country,
and if that value is exceed they will intervene buying
Sovereign Bonds.
-The Central Bank of Germany opposed immediately
to this, and even Pimco’s El-Erian said this was a bad
idea.
Spain: A bailout is closer and
closer…
-They issued €4,5MM in 12 and 18 months treasury
bills. There is still the rumor that Spain is close to
ask for a bailout as its financing costs are still at
unsustainable levels.
Until when are they going to resist?
4,868
6,421
4
4,5
5
5,5
6
6,5
7
7,5
8
1-2-12 2-2-12 3-2-12 4-2-12 5-2-12 6-2-12 7-2-12 8-2-12
Spain: 10Y Government Bond Yield
Rest of Europe-France issued again treasury bonds with negative Yields.
-And Germany issued 2 Year government bonds with an Yield of 0%.
-0,012
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Germany: 2Y Government Bond
Yield
Rest of Europe-Manufacturing data shows that the region continues slowing down.
40
45
50
55
60
65
PMI Manufacturing
Germany
France
Eurozone
A QE3? Does even the FED knows what should be their
next step?
-Positive FOMC Minutes: if the economy continues providing signs of contracting, new stimulus should be
added.
-And a study from FED revealed that the natural rate for US’ unemployment is 6%, showing that there is still
space to implement new stimulus in the economy as unemployment is currently near 8%.
-But the President of the FED of St. Louis said that he is against a QE3, as the recent economic data in the
country have been providing signs that the growth of the country is gaining pace again. Bullard is hak and a
no voter FED member
-All attentions are now centered on Jackson Hole Speech next Friday, where Bernanke should give more
clues about FED policy.
Economic data-This week the focus was on Real-Estate.
372
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
New Home Sales
3,39
4,47
3
3,2
3,4
3,6
3,8
4
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
5
Existing Home Sales
Do you think Michael Phelps is fast? You didn’t met my
friend Apple.
192,05
662,63
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Apple
Rest of the World
-“Buy on the rumor and sell on the fact”, but as
for China it has been all just rumors. Are Central
Bank providing more stimulus?
-Japan trade balance still negative.-779,569
293,899
-281,814
-690,422
-205,57
-1481,467
25,41
-87,099
-523,924
-917,212
60,341
-517,382
Japan: Trade Balance (Billion Yens)
Weekly Preview
US Everybody is waiting by the Jackson Hole speech. Last year, Bernanke announced Operation
Twist. This year? Hmm… lets wait and see.
Europe The focus will continue to be Spain and Greece. We should follow closely the visit of Juncker and
Hollande to Madrid.
Rest of
the
World
China, all politicians said that they are going ton intervene in the economy. We and the markets
are backing up. Tensions in Syria, Iran and between China and it’s neighbors are rising up.
Market IndicatorsWe remain positive for the markets, but there are several risks that can prompt them to fall.
Weekly Preview
Option Skew Monitor. As it is positive indicates us
that it is higher the probability of big appreciations
on its value.
Vicious Cycle of Europe. We are currently on level 2.
1,2053
1,2554
1,19
1,2
1,21
1,22
1,23
1,24
1,25
1,26
1,27
1,28
EURUSD
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
A Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. fornece somente serviços de recepção,
transmissão e execução de ordens. Os conteúdos mencionados não constitui (e
não será concebido de forma a constituir) qualquer espécie de aconselhamento,
ou recomendação de investimento, ou um registo dos nossos preços de
negociação, ou uma oferta ou solicitação para a transacção de qualquer
instrumento financeiro. A Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. não aceitará
qualquer responsabilidade em consequência de qualquer uso que possa ser dado
ao referido conteúdo ou sobre qualquer efeito que daí advenha.
Contatos :
FINCOR – Sociedade Corretora, SA
Rua Castilho N.44, 4º Piso
1250-071 Lisboa, Portugal
Tel. +351 21 382 40 10
Fax.+351 21 380 30 49
fincor@fincor.pt
www.fincor.pt
http://fincorcorretora.blogspot.pt/
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