Гидрологическое моделирование крупных речных...
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- 1. ECOMAGECOMAG ECOMAGECOMAG
- 2. Hydrological models and technologyHydrological models and
technologyHydrological models and technologyHydrological models and
technology Technological LevelTechnological LevelClassifications of
Hydrological ModelsClassifications of Hydrological Models Numerical
ModelNumerical ModelNumerical ModelNumerical Model Modelling
SystemModelling SystemModelling SystemModelling System Industrial
User-FriendlyIndustrial User-Friendly Software ProductSoftware
Product Industrial User-FriendlyIndustrial User-Friendly Software
ProductSoftware Product IntelligentIntelligent ModellingModelling
SystemSystem IntelligentIntelligent ModellingModelling SystemSystem
Computerised FormulaeComputerised FormulaeComputerised
FormulaeComputerised FormulaeHydrological Simulations
ModelsHydrological Simulations ModelsHydrological Simulations
ModelsHydrological Simulations Models JointJoint Stochastic -
DeterministicStochastic - Deterministic JointJoint Stochastic -
DeterministicStochastic - Deterministic
StochasticStochasticStochasticStochasticDeterministicDeterministicDeterministicDeterministic
EmpiricalEmpirical (black box)(black box) EmpiricalEmpirical (black
box)(black box) LumpedLumped ConceptualConceptual (grey box)(grey
box) LumpedLumped ConceptualConceptual (grey box)(grey box)
DistributedDistributed Physically-Physically- basedbased (white
box)(white box) DistributedDistributed Physically-Physically-
basedbased (white box)(white box)
- 3. Infiltration Unfrozen soil - 167.15.0 )()( = = + Bnhiq q x
qB t hB c q x q x Q C D x Q t Q C + = + )( 1 2 2 + + = K z I D z D
zt I t I w i t W z T K z I D z D z T zt T c wIwwT + + + = )()( ; =
K z K zt LAI rr qTq E sa af f a + = )1( )(* ag ag ag r qTqr E = )(*
t i z q t w w Iw w = 1 t i L z T zz T C Ief s ef + = 1)(
- 4. , , , , LBQQRhh dt dD LefL /)()( 2 00 =+ Q=iKxBh, a lr = , 2
1 2 == r s l a l , QEVa dt dhaD = )( 2 , Q=2lrikh=aikh/ls=2h, av gs
avav avg h l ki EV dt dhD )( 2 , ScEV dt dS avav 1)( = , S=Dghav/2
c1= gsg l ki D 2 .
- 5. Infiltration Unfrozen soil ( ) f S T SsEsRh)(I dt d w i += f
SVwE T SwR(Wh) dt d += + = W)I,(h,sv I i sE T S n sR w dt dh f HgH
gT T f H 0 T f dt f dH f Q = )/L 0 Q L (QmRb) 0 h 0 b L h L (b dt d
2 1 =+ b/n5/3h1/2iQ = h f f H S f TH S 0 T + = Q/Lm)b G V(V(bh) dt
d D += ( ) [ ])mR/Kexp(1mK R 0 dKKexpV == ihxbKQ = += 0,5 t f Q T T
22 f H T H + = 2)I i c/(1 4 WP l P WPI l P l KmK )eWd(WekE =
We=(FC+WP)/2
- 6. - - - -
- 7. CC CC
- 8.
- 9. The European multi-The European multi- disciplinary
Northerndisciplinary Northern hemisphere climatehemisphere climate
Process land surfaceProcess land surface Experiment (Experiment
(NOPEXNOPEX)) within the IGBP-BACHwithin the IGBP-BACH
framework,framework, Sweden.Sweden. The national NorwegianThe
national Norwegian New generation ofNew generation of Hydrological
ModelsHydrological Models project.project. Norway.Norway. 10E 20E0
Norwa y Sweden 70N 30E Finland NOPEX area Denmark Uppsala Oslo 65N
60N 55N
- 10. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) Split sample and Proxy tests:
- 3 basins used for calibration, - 6 for validation Validation
against independent data: - flux measurements from masts - synoptic
discharge measurements - synoptic soil moisture and groundwater
level measurements Comparison of measured and simulated discharges
Basin Fyrisn Synoptic measurements 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20
25 30 Simulated discharges (m^3/s) Observeddischarges(m^3/s) 0.01
0.1 1 10 100 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 Simulated discharges (m^3/s)
Observeddischarges(m^3/s) Mean soil moisture vs. area 24.5.1996 0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 100 10000 1000000 Square root of area (m)
Volumetricsoilmoisture Mean groundwater level vs. area 24.5.1996 0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1 100 10000 1000000 Square root of
area (m) Groundwaterlevel Length scale: NOPEX 1-2 km
- 11. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) An esker Forest with till
soil Agriculural land with clay soil
- 12. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) Year 1981/82 0 10 20 30 40 50
60 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1981/82 0 2 4 6 8 10
12 14 16 18 20 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1981/82
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s)
Year 1982/83 0 5 10 15 20 25 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s)
Year 1982/83 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q
(m3/s) Year 1982/83 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 1 61 121
181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1983/84 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1
61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1983/84 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
14 16 18 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1983/84 0 0.1
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year
1984/85 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s)
Year 1984/85 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q
(m3/s) Year 1984/85 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 61 121
181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1985/86 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1
61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1985/86 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
14 16 18 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1985/86 0 0.05
0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 1 61 121 181 241 301 361
Days Q (m3/s) Year 1986/87 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 61 121 181
241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1986/87 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1 61
121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1986/87 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year 1987/88
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s) Year
1987/88 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 61 121 181 241 301 361 Days Q
(m3/s) Year 1987/88 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 1 61
121 181 241 301 361 Days Q (m3/s)
- 13. (NOPEX)(NOPEX) (NOPEX)(NOPEX) 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
ECOMAG-model (mm/day) Mastwholeregion(mm/day)
- 14. ECOMAG ECOMAG -- ECOMAG ECOMAG -- - - ECOMAG
- 15.
- 16. .
- 17. - 1%, 2%, 4%, 10%
- 18. .
- 19.
- 20. OPERATIVE SUPPORTOPERATIVE SUPPORT of rof river-basin
organizations ofiver-basin organizations of Federal Water Resources
AgencyFederal Water Resources Agency OPERATIVE SUPPORTOPERATIVE
SUPPORT of rof river-basin organizations ofiver-basin organizations
of Federal Water Resources AgencyFederal Water Resources Agency
Operative informationOperative information
- 21. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Digital Elevation ModelDigital
Elevation Model GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Digital Elevation
ModelDigital Elevation Model
- 22. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Landscape ModelLandscape Model GIS
SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Landscape ModelLandscape Model
- 23. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Type MapSoil Type Map GIS
SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Type MapSoil Type Map
- 24. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Mechanical Composition MapSoil
Mechanical Composition Map GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT Soil Mechanical
Composition MapSoil Mechanical Composition Map
- 25.
- 26. - - - - - - ArcGisArcGis Ecomag-extensionEcomag-extension
Ecomag-extensionEcomag-extension , , , , - ,- ,
- 27. - - ECOMAG ExtentionECOMAG Extention - - ECOMAG
ExtentionECOMAG Extention () (ECOMAG)
- 28. GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT River Basin Schematization
SoftwareRiver Basin Schematization Software GIS SUPPORTGIS SUPPORT
River Basin Schematization SoftwareRiver Basin Schematization
Software Lena River Basin
- 29.
- 30.
- 31. . K kr . K kr 100 1830 750 500 390 3500 1000 200 6700 2000
100 13500 4000 50 27000 8000 25 55000
- 32. N () F () K kr N () F () K kr 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 100
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr N 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
60000 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr F, km2
- 33. 20 20.0.033 20 20.0.033 20.03.2009 20.03.2010
20.03.2011
- 34. ( (33 ) 2001-2011 . (. .)) 2001-2011 . (. .) ( (33 )
2001-2011 . (. .)) 2001-2011 . (. .) 0 50 100 150 200 250 2000 2001
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
- 35. 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 100 500 1000
2000 4000 8000
- 36. 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 20 20.03..03.2010 2010 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr NS, Kkor
NSE3 NSE2 Kkor5 Kkor6 NSE1 Kkor7
- 37. 0-50 2010 0-50 2010 0-50 2010 0-50 2010 1 2010 1 2010 1
2010
- 38. 0-50 0-50 0-50 0-50 2010 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3105 1006
2006 3006 1007 2007 3107 1008 2008 3108 1009 2009 3009 1010 2010
3110 . . 2011 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3105 1006 2006 3006 1007 2007
3107 1008 2008 3108 1009 2009 3009 1010 2010 3110 . . 2007 0 20 40
60 80 100 120 3105 1006 2006 3006 1007 2007 3107 1008 2008 3108
1009 2009 3009 1010 2010 3110 . .
- 39. . K kr . K kr 100 1830 750 500 390 3500 1000 200 6700 2000
100 13500 4000 50 27000 8000 25 55000
- 40. Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993
Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993Rodrigues-Iturbe, 1993 , 1 131.1 1 43.0 = L
Lp R LvRq (13) 1 , 1 144.0 138.0 55.0 = L L A B p R LvR R R t
(14)
- 41. . . - 2013 - 2013 . . - 2013 - 2013 0 10000 20000 30000
40000 50000 Q, m3/s . 100 500 1000 2000 4000 8000
- 42. - - =100 =100 - - =100 =100 0.9 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1 100
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 K kr NS
- 43.
- 44.
- 45. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 3300
00 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 3300 00
22
- 46. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=30F=30 9900
00 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=30F=30 9900 00
22
- 47. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=6F=6 22220 0
22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=6F=6 22220 0
22
- 48. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=F=22 170170
22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=F=22 170170
22
- 49. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=21F=21 5500
00 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=21F=21 5500 00
22
- 50. , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=166F=166 1100 00 22 ,
2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=166F=166 1100 00 22
- 51. , , 19611961 -- 19901990 .,., F=166F=166 1100 00 22 , ,
19611961 -- 19901990 .,., F=166F=166 1100 00 22
- 52. 2001 -2009 . (19 2001 -2009 . (196161 2000 .) 2000 .) 2001
-2009 . (19 2001 -2009 . (196161 2000 .) 2000 .) , 2 R2 NS R2 R2 /
46300 0.74 0.91 0.95 / 30900 0.67 0.91 0.92 / - 5320 0.66 0.88 0.90
/ 836 0.62 0.82 0.94 / 5210 0.63 0.85 0.95 - / 4310 0.53 0.74 0.90
/ 6220 0.48 0.83 0.88 / 2170 0.71 0.84 0.89 / 21500 0.76 0.85 0.91
166100 0.87 (0.90) 0.91 0.93
- 53. 9.05.2002 . 9.05.2002 . 9.05.2002 . 9.05.2002 .
- 54. 2002 . 2002 . 2002 . 2002 .
- 55.
- 56.
- 57. , 2005 - 2009 ., , 2005 - 2009 ., F=10F=10 10100 0 22 ,
2005 - 2009 ., , 2005 - 2009 ., F=10F=10 10100 0 22
- 58. , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=F=22 87870 0 22 , 2001
- 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=F=22 87870 0 22
- 59. , 2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 50500 0 22 ,
2001 - 2009 ., , 2001 - 2009 ., F=46F=46 50500 0 22
- 60. . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=100F=100 000
000 22 . , / , 2002 - 2009 .,. , / , 2002 - 2009 ., F=100F=100 000
000 22
- 61. . , / , 2001 - 2009 .,. , / , 2001 - 2009 ., F=121F=121 000
000 22 . , / , 2001 - 2009 .,. , / , 2001 - 2009 ., F=121F=121 000
000 22
- 62. --, 2001 - 2009 ., 2001 - 2009 .,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22
--, 2001 - 2009 ., 2001 - 2009 .,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22
- 63. --,, 19801980 - 200- 20000 ..,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22 --,,
19801980 - 200- 20000 ..,, F=184F=184 44000 0 22
- 64. 200 20000 -2009 .-2009 . (1980-2000)(1980-2000) 200 20000
-2009 .-2009 . (1980-2000)(1980-2000) , 2 R2 NS R2 R2 10100 0.57
0.79 0.93 2870 0.70 0.73 0.94 46500 0.82 0.87 0.91 / 100000 0.90
0.96 0.97 / 121000 0.78 0.91 0.98 184400 0.86 (0.81) 0.93 0.96
- 65. 25.04.2005 . 25.04.2005 . 25.04.2005 . 25.04.2005 .
- 66. 2002 . 2002 . 2002 . 2002 .
- 67. - - - -
- 68. VOLPOWVOLPOW VOLPOWVOLPOW
- 69. - - 2- 2- 2005 . 2005 . - - 2- 2- 2005 . 2005 .