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AACIMP 2011 Summer School. Science of Global Challenges Stream. Lecture by Satoshi Konishi.
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Satoshi Konishi
Institute for Sustainability Science,
Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University
Aug.12-13, 2011
Advanced energy technology for
sustainable development - Analysis of energy for sustainability-
Summer School AACIMP-2011
Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
5.Impact of energy technology
research
- As an example, economical effect of the Fusion research
is analyzed
- energy sales is not the only outcome of the research.
→economical effect out of the market. ”Externality”
is important;
.
- “Impact pathway” shows 4 effects of the fusion R&D.
1) The direct effect of the purchase ;
The increase of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) as a
measure.
Input-Output table is usually used .
research benefits public? International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
2) The growth of local community and its economy.
Secondary and further effect of purchase.
Employment.
Some of these effects can be estimated with
local community effect out of input-output table.
Evaluation procedure is established.
3) Improvement of technical capability of the industry
Technical spin-offs as part of Externality.
Results usually appears slow and occasional.
Not obtained from the market. Contribution.
4) Energy and related technology.
Appears decades later.
Contribution of industry is mach larger than
Original R&D.
Contribution to the global environment problem.
Mechanism of R&D impact
①direct Energy R&D
Direct purchace equipment
construction
②social Community growth employment
③external
Industrial
technology Spin-offs
High-techs
④future
Energy
technology
Energy
market
Impact pathway
Energy sales
Specific equipment Energy security
environment
example Category
Local
community
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
③Impacts on technology
In industry
④commercial value
of energy
Year
2000 2020 2040 2080 2100 2060
Mark
et scale
①Direct economical
Effect by research
Investment
②impacts on local
community
Energy research affects four paths. International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
Investment source
・various sponsors provide funding
・different purpose, different phase of development
・investment for research is a certain fraction of total sales
→investment must yield benefit
1960
transfer
6.2%
For R&D
industry
utility Research
institute
Basic
research
Fission reactor case sales
Further competitiveness improvements
commercialization
Research
institutes
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
basic
5.4%
2.4%
1.9%
1.4%
4.0%
5.9%
5.7%
6.8%
8.4%
14.7%
8.1%
6.3%
4.0%
5.4%
5.8%
2.7%
4.0%
0.7%
59.3%
68.4%
78.0%
85.0%
71.6%
66.7%
83.8%
73.5%
95.1%
40.7%
31.6%
22.0%
15.0%
28.4%
33.2%
16.3%
26.6%
5.0%
26.0%
23.5%
15.7%
11.0%
23.0%
27.4%
13.6%
22.6%
4.3%
R&D/
total sales
Basic
research
applied
research
commercial
development Industry
Chemical
ceramics
steel
Metal
machinery
electrical
Electronic/ instruments
Fine machinery
softwares
Research
contribution
R&D budget to total sales International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
Spin-offs from fusion research
Fusion R&D
microwaves
Telecommuni-
cation
Semiconductor
industry High temperature
devices
Energy storage
superconductor
Power
supply
Ion beam
divertor
utility
Analytical
instruments
Ultra-high
vacuum
materials
Surface
modification
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
The spin-off technology is studied with actual fusion R&D project performed in the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute.
Total 66 billion Yen (inflation corrected) was spent in 40years.
Products were identified (ca180)by the researchers and industry.
Then their market sizes were evaluated by a third party
(business consulting institute).
Impact on the market is estimated to be 2.7x109 Yen.
Contribution of research institute is 1.2x108 Yen.
Technical spin-offs International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
Future energy mix was analyzed to consider the entire market.
Environmental constraint requires reduced carbon dioxide emission.
Fusion will not have chance in “business as usual” scenario.
Fusion electricity is estimated to have ca. 30% of global market.
It is possible to supply same amount of electricity without fusion.
Difference of total electricity cost corresponds a benefit of fusion.
While reduction of the expense benefits consumer
Reduction of the electricity cost can lead to loss in GDP.
Future Energy Market
Market under environmental constraint
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
This methodology can be used for any energy
Energy supply without fusion
coal
oil Unconventional oil
gas Unconventional gas nuclear
hydro
0
10
20
30
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 year
Renewable hydrogen
renewables
actual estimated
Gto
n oi
l equ
ival
ent/y
ear
・Future energy market is analyzed to fill the demand with minimal cost.
・Fusion will not appear in “Business as usual” scenario.
・Market can be filled without fusion.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Fusion Electricity Share
Fusion is estimated to have 10% share at 2100 under
environmental constraint if successfully used for electricity.
0
10
20
30
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
GTOE
Coal
Oil
UnConventional Oil
Gas
Nuclear Hydro
Fusion
Renewables
UnConventional Gas
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Economical impact of fusion development
by the energy market till 2100.
Electricity
sales
Fusion
devices
(domestic)
Fusion
devices
(export)
Electricity
cost
saving
direct 37 4.5 47.1 35
Indirect
effect
By I/O
table
73 14 149 -
(in 1012 yen-close to 10 billion Euro or &,billion UAH.
discount rate 2%, integrated from 2050 to 2100.)
Question: benefit measured by GDPs?
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
In the sales value of electricity, 35% is generation cost.
Contribution of the research is evaluated according to the current
Japanese electricity market.
Fusion reactor and accompanied plant are the product of the
research.
Fusion specific devices have global export market.
(on the other hand fission reactor is assumed to have difficulty in
global market because of nuclear proliferation, fuel cycle and
social acceptance)
For the long period up to 2100, 2% discount rate was applied.
- reduces to 10% as present value equivalent.
Fusion market analysis International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
Supply chain of energy
Difference from LCA:dynamic. Not the estimation of inventory
→constraints may occur with ample resource
→constraints without material, by externality
→market growth can be also limited.
Energy
Technology
resource waste
demand
Energy
production
Social
requirements
externality
Waste
management
Fuel
supply
stock
flow
Large quantity
Cheap price
Logistics
inevitable
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Demand
(time,place)
Waste
disposal
Management
Plant construction
Transport energy
transport
Storage
Supply
Energy
Generation
(conversion)
Transport cost
resource
infrastructure
transport
Supply chain constraint
Supply chain limits energy sales by various reasons.
Product
sales
Transport system
Time, place
fund
Changing needs
Supply chain is a dynamic process.
Site/location
Storage
Storage
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Large demand
City, industry
Long Plant
construction time
Fusion plant
Small quantity
Fuel D and Li
Rare metals
Advanced
technology
Base load
Supply chain of fusion
Fusion has some advantages (and disadvantages)
electricity
Large fund
Supply chain is a dynamic process.
Limited location
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Rad Waste
disposal
Management
Safety concern
Changing demand
Waste only from
Production and
aged
Plant construction
Transport energy
Solar
wind Resource
uncontrollable
Limit of renewables
Supply chain limits energy sales by various reasons.
electricity
Time, place
High cost
Changing needs
Site/location limited
Storage
needed
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Electric grid capacities
Physics Today, vol.55, No.4 (2002)
Stability of the grid is region specific.
Eastern Grid
~500GW
Texas Grid
~53GW
Western Grid
~140GW
East Japan
~80GW
West Japan
~100GW
UTPTE ~270GW
Thailand ~20GW
Vietnam ~8GW
Extremely large Grids in a country Internationally connected Grids Delicately controlled grids - these are all exceptional in the future energy market.
Electric grid is a national security issue and
cannot be easily integrated.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Forecast of power demand
Thailand
Peak
Po
wer
(MW
)
Vietnam
* Source JBIC report 18
Cambodia Lao
Peak
Po
wer
(MW
)
Peak
Po
wer
(MW
) P
eak
Po
wer
(MW
)
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Difference in Grid Composition
Kansai, night : 14GWe
Kansai, daytime : 30GWe
Thai : 15GWe
Composition of grid
Frequency change
Grid Capacity
・Grid in Thailand is smaller than
Kansai, but has more capacity to
accept fusion load.
Change of the Load 200MW, 200MW/sec
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Kansai,night Kansai,day Thai
out
put(
GW
) Nuclear
Hydro
Fossil fire
-0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00
0 10 20 30 time(sec)
frequ
ency(
Hz)
Kansai, Night Kansai, daytime Thai
・Large and fast load affects grid.
Small capacity cannot respond.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Influence to the power grid
The grid capacity of 10-20GW is required to supply startup
power of regular size fusion reactor.
The influence also depends on the grid configuration, as
response time of each power station is different.
Response speed
Hydro fast 10%/min
Oil 5%/min
Coal slow 1%/min
Nuclear not allowed now
Solar/Wind No response
Fusion requires large power Can small grid respond?
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Fusion role in the grid Thailand
Solar/Wind
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Japan
Solar/Wind
Fusion
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Solar/Wind
Fission
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Solar/Wind
Fission
Fusion
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Fusion will respond to increased demand in developing country
While only replaces old stations in Japan.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
3 stages of selection by feasibility
• Technology is evaluated by technically, socially and economically. These 3 stages sometimes overwrap.
• In each stages selection criteria and stakeholder are different.
Technical-researchers
Socialーgovernment, society,public
commercialーbusiness, company
consumer
• Due to the difference in
criteria, winners could be
different.
Cost is not the only measure.
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Technology selection
Technical feasibility
Social feasibility
Commercial
feasibility
Technical success
Social value
benefit
Researcher
institute
Government
public company
Temperature Thermal Efficiency coolant
300
5 0 0
8 0 0
Light water Heavy water 、
Liquid metal
Molten salt
Helium
30%
4 0 %
5 0 %
N P D
1 9 6 2
CalderHall 1956
CO2
F E R M I
1 9 6 3 ( 商 用 )
Obninsk(RBMK) 1954
Shippingport
P W R 1 9 5 7 V B W R
1 9 5 7
E B R 1
1 9 5 1
A G R
1 9 7 6
SGHWR
1968 EL-4
1966
Variety of fission reactors developed
International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science
Selection by various reasons
○Fusion is suitable for growing economy after 2050.
・large scale
・unban electricity supply
・little problem of fuel cycle
・self-reliance, free from resource constraint
○ Development of advanced system is a key issue for fusion
・economy – compete with renewables and fossil with CCS
・environment - low activation, short life of rad-waste
○fusion provides significant contribution for global environment
・carbon free electricity
・replaces fossil based fuel.
Summary of fusion market International Symposium on Global Sustainability
Institute of Sustainable Science
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