AIG: The Missing Piece of Its Failure Narrative & Why It Matters

AIG: The Missing Piece of Its Failure Narrative & Why It Matters

Hester PeirceSenior Research Fellow

Why Should We Care?

AIG was one of the biggest bailout events of the crisis. $182.3 billion was made available to AIG. We should know why it happened.

Better understanding what happened at AIG will help us to think about what reforms should or could be made to prevent a repeat.

Today’s Agenda

• What got AIG in trouble?• Why did government intervene?• Did Dodd-Frank reforms address

the problems at AIG?

The Standard View of AIG’s Downfall

• “AIG Financial Products, operating out of London, brought down the company and nearly toppled the U.S. economy.” Gary Gensler, former Chairman Commodity Futures Trading Commission, May 2012

Alternate View

• “AIG blew up when its stock-lending shadow bank – an insurance company – suffered a run.” Paul Tucker, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee and Member of the Financial Policy Committee, March 13, 2012

The Making of AIG

Founded by Cornelius Vander Starr in 1919 in China as insurance company

Expanded into other business lines130 countries116,000 employees76 million customersMaurice “Hank” Greenberg—CEO for nearly 4

decades—presided over much of growth

AIG Post-Greenberg

March 2005: Martin Sullivan, a company insider, took over as CEO

February 2006: AIG paid over $1.6 billion to settle with DOJ, SEC, and NY on accounting, bid rigging, and workers comp charges.

June 2008: Company was losing money fast. New CEO Robert Willumstad came in to replace Sullivan

AIG’s Business UnitsGeneral Insurance

Life Insurance & Retirement Services

Financial Services

Asset Management

AIG’s Hundreds of Regulators

AIG entity Regulator

AIG Holding Company Office of Thrift Supervision

domestic insurance companies state insurance regulators

foreign insurance companies foreign insurance regulators

AIG Federal Savings Bank Office of Thrift Supervision

AIG Securities Lending Corp. (after registering as broker-dealer in 2006)

Securities and Exchange Commission/Financial Industry Regulatory Authority

AIG’s European operations French Commission Bancaire (coordinating supervisor)

Origins of AIGFP

1987: AIG enters into joint venture with defectors from Drexel Burnham Lambert

Howard Sosin, the original CEO, clashed with Hank Greenberg

His successor, Tom Savage, had a key governing principle. . .

Mortgage-Related Assets

In 2002, Joe Cassano took over

Mortgage-Related Assets

Credit Default Swaps

A CDS is an over-the-counter derivativeAs a derivative financial product, it derives its

value from something else—for CDS bondsPeople use CDS to manage riskAIG sold different kinds of CDSAIG, with its strong credit-rating was an

attractive counterparty

AIGFP’s CDS

Corporate Arbitrage CDS

Regulatory Arbitrage CDS

Multi-Sector CDO CDS

Collateralized Debt Obligations

• Investment-grade security backed by a pool of bonds, loans and other assets with varying levels of risk. CDOs bundle the various types of debt into tranches of distinct maturities and risk levels, including tranches made of subprime loans.

--Federal Reserve Bank of New York

What Was In Those CDOs?

Lots of Residential Mortgage-Backed

Securities

Was Joe Cassano a Fool or a Sage?

Normally, CDS dealers protect themselves by hedging their exposure

AIGFP did not hedge; it sold a lot of CDS; it was on one side of the market

Joe Cassano insisted that he had hedged his exposure by only offering protection on the super-senior tranche of the CDOs

 “super senior” risk layer

(AIGFP net notional exposure)

AAA

A

BB

BBB

equity

realized credit losses

allocated sequential

ly

portfolio made up of tranches of securitized residential and commercial mortgages, auto loans, etc. and further separated into tranches

AIGFP attachment point

AIG’s Super-Senior CDS

What Could Possibly Go

Wrong?

Goldman Sachs Could Call

Collateral Calls at AIGFP

Starting in August 2007, Goldman and other counterparties began asking AIGFP to put up cash margin—essentially a pledge that it could make good if it had to

AIGFP fought back; the collateral calls were arguably aggressive and were based on very little pricing data

Unrealized Losses on AIG’s Super-Senior CDS

12/31/07 3/31/08 6/30/08 9/30/080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

net notional valuecumulative fair value loss

billions

of

dollars

AIGFP Could Have Been Much Worse

AIGFP stopped writing CDS on multi-sector CDOs in early 2006—before the housing market saw its darkest days.

AIGFP based the decision on concern that the mortgage market was spiraling out of control.

But AIGFP did not make serious efforts to hedge its existing CDS positions.

One Part of AIG Did Not Get the

Memo

Securities Lending

What Is Securities Lending?

One party lends a stock, bond, or other security to another & receives cash or other collateral.

Hedge funds & broker-dealers borrow for short-selling & other trading strategies.

Life insurance companies, mutual funds & other holders of large pools of securities lend.

Loans are usually very short-term—may roll over daily.

What Is Securities Lending?

Borrower typically posts excess collateral—usually 102% to 105%.

Collateral is adjusted through term of loan.Lender gives a rebate to borrower, the size of

which depends on the scarcity of the security being lent.

Lenders make money by reinvesting the cash collateral in low-risk investments.

How Securities Lending Works

AIG’s Securities Lending Program

AIG set up a joint program for its life insurance subsidiaries.

The subs pooled their securities and lent them out in exchange for cash.

AIG’s loans were unusual in that many were for fixed one-month terms.

AIG's Approximate Share of Worldwide Cash Collateral Reinvestments During Crisis

Rest of worldAIG

Based on data from: Matthew Dive et al., Developments in the Global Securities Lending Market, BANK OF ENGLAND QUARTERLY BULLETIN 224, 228 (3rd Quarter 2011), available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/qb110303.pdf.

12/31/01 12/31/02 12/31/03 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/070

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000se

curi

ties

lendin

g p

ayable

(b

illions

of

dollars

)

Growth of AIG’s Securities Lending Program

AIG Reinvested Much of Its Cash

Collateral in …

Residential Mortgage-

Backed Securities

12/31/07 3/31/08 6/30/08 9/30/080

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

cash and short-term in-vestments

MBS/ABS/collateralized BBB/not rated

MBS/ABS/collateralized A

MBS/ABS/collateralized AA

MBS/ABS/collateralized AAA

corporate debt BBB/not rated

corporate debt A

corporate debt AA

corporate debt AAA

billions

of

dollars

Collateral Reinvestment• AIG was

much more heavily invested in MBS than typical sec lender.

Difference Between Sec Lending Payable & Reinvested Collateral

Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-080

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

$ b

illions

Why Was This a Problem?

Securities lending transactions are short-term; they often get rolled over, but the borrower is under no obligation to renew.

When borrowers wanted their cash back, there wasn’t any—it was all tied up in RMBS.

The program reached its peak at $94 billion in October 2007 as AIG used proceeds from new loans to repay old ones.

AIG

Borrower 2

$

Borrower 1$

Securities

Securities

Everything is fine until Borrower 2wants its cash collateral back.

The Crisis Spelled Trouble for AIG

In addition to making new loans to repay old ones, AIG was selling any of the securities in its reinvestment portfolio it could sell, but those securities were not hot sellers during the crisis.

In 2008, things got worse because borrowers, along with everyone else, really wanted one thing . . .

CASH!

Haircuts Made Matters Even Worse

Securities Lending Haircuts

The standard in securities lending is to give the lender 102%-105% of the security’s value.

When securities borrowers started to get the upper hand in 2008, they only paid 100%.

Then 98 . . . 95 . . . 80 . . . 73 %.

If AIG Didn’t Repay . . .

Borrower could sell securitiesBorrower could go after assets of participating

life insurance companies

AIG contributed money to the securities lending pool to make up for undercollateralization and losses on securities sold.

AIG’s Income and Losses

Reporting period Net income (loss), billions of dollars

2004 9.84

2005 10.48

2006 14.05

1st quarter 2007 4.13

2nd quarter 2007 4.28

3rd quarter 2007 3.09

4th quarter 2007 (5.29)

1st quarter 2008 (7.81)

2nd quarter 2008 (5.36)

3rd quarter 2008 (24.47)

4th quarter 2008 (61.66)

AIG’s Stock Price Reflected the Grim State of Affairs

1/1/07 5/15/08 9/27/09 2/9/11 6/23/12$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Credit Rating Agency Downgrade

More Demands for Collateral

AIG ‘s ability to

raise capital diminished

AIG’s Credit Rating Was a Real Worry

Sec Lending Kept New CEO Awake at Night

A problem coming from insurance subsidiaries would have caused AIG reputational damage and regulatory issues.

But, AIG did not have cash to spare.In June 2008, when he started as CEO,

Willumstad quickly realized that securities lending would be a problem—a liquidity drain

He went to visit . . .

Think back to 2008

March 2008: Government subsidized J.P. Morgan’s purchase of Bear Stearns.

September 2008: Government takes over Fannie and Freddie.

September 13-14, 2008: Lehman weekend.September 15, 2008: Lehman files for

bankruptcy.

Lehman Weekend=AIG Weekend

As Lehman’s fate was being decided, so too was AIG’s.

No private sector solution materialized—Wall Street firms that went in decided AIG needed more money than its assets were worth.

Insurance regulators tried to cobble together a quick deal that effectively would use P&C companies to rescue life insurance companies.

Why Rescue AIG?

Could markets handle another big failure?

What would insurance customers do?What about AIG’s many

counterparties?Would European banks be hurt?

Fed to the Rescue

$85 billion revolving credit facility from the Fed under Section 13(3) Authority of the Federal Reserve Act.

Collateralized by AIG’s assets.Government got preferred stock convertible

into 79.9% of AIG.Terms of loan were tough: LIBOR + 8.5%.

AIG Spending Rate Was Alarming

AIGFP counterparties were still asking for money.

Securities lending borrowers asked for $24 billion between September 12 and 30, 2008.

When It Runs Out, Re-Bailout

October 2008: Fed sets up a $37.8 billion program to step into shoes of fleeing securities lending counterparties. AIG could use cash from Fed to repay counterparties.

November 2008: TARP funds were injected and Maiden Lane II and III are set up.

Maiden Lane Off-Balance Sheet Entities

• Maiden Lane IITo take care of AIG’s

securities sending problem

$19.5 billion from government

$1 billion from AIGAIG’s securities lending

counterparties were paid off

• Maiden Lane IIITo take care of AIGFP’s

CDS problem$24.5 billion from

government$5 billion from AIGPurchased underlying

CDOs from AIG’s counterparties

AIG Payments to Counterparties:September 16-December 31, 2008

securities lending46%

AIGFP54%

In contrast to Lehman, the core operations of AIG were viable and profitable insurance companies. AIG’s financial difficulties stemmed primarily from the loss of liquidity to fund collateral calls on its unhedged derivatives positions in one part of the company—its Financial Products Division.

--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke,November 2010

Were the Insurance Subs Healthy?

Source: DAVID MERKEL, TO WHAT DEGREE WERE AIG’S OPERATING INSURANCE SUBSIDIARIES SOUND? 4 (2009), available at http://alephblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/To%20What%20Degree%20Were%20AIG%E2%80%99s%20Operating%20Subsidiaries%20Sound.pdf

Year-End Statutory Surplus and Statutory Net Income at AIG’s Life-Insurance and Retirement-Services Subsidiaries (millions of dollars)

Year Statutory surplus Statutory net income (loss)

2006 $35,058 $5,088

2007 $33,212 $4,465

2008 $24,511 ($23,558)

Insurance Regulation

Insurance companies are regulated by states in which they sell insurance.

Insurance regulators had authority to intervene in securities lending matters.

To avoid conflicts, state regulators coordinate through the NAIC.

Insurance companies have to maintain a certain level of capital.

When an insurance company runs into trouble, state regulators wind it down.

Risk-Based Capital System200% and above

150% and above

100% and above

70% and above

Ratio of Total

Adjusted Capital to Author-

ized Control

Level Risk-

Based Capital

No intervention

Company corrective

plan

Less than 70%

Regulator exams and

analysis

Regulator may take control

Regulator must take

control

$(25,000)

$(20,000)

$(15,000)

$(10,000)

$(5,000)

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$20,040

$2,901

$15,653

$2,474

$(17,602)

$(24,214)

$23,116

$(52)

AIG's Largest Domestic Life Insurance/Retirement Services Companies: Regulatory Capital and Re-lated Events

Source: GAO Sept. 2009 Update, supra note 207, at 77 (Figure 12).

Series1

Why Did Securities Lending Losses Matter?

AIG’s life insurance subsidiaries were in trouble in the fall of 2008.

Their troubles were placing real liquidity and capital demands on the AIG parent.

If the Fed had not engineered a bailout, AIG would have filed for bankruptcy and some of the life insurance companies would likely have been seized by state regulators.

Why Not Bankruptcy for AIG?

Allowing AIG to fail would have: Taught a meaningful lesson to other companies.

Careful centralized liquidity and risk management is important.

Provided regulatory consistency. Lehman was allowed to fail because it was insolvent. AIG was insolvent too.

Even after AIG’s initial rescue, government could have allowed bankruptcy.

What Does Adding the Securities Lending Piece of the Story Tell Us?

• Regulation is not the answer. The life insurance companies were heavily regulated by the states.

• There is no basis for assuming that the Fed will do a better job than the state insurance regulators did at monitoring risk-taking.

• AIG is not the poster child for Dodd-Frank derivatives reform that some have suggested it is.

What Should We Do?

• People care about risks when their money is on the line We need to look for ways to make shareholders and creditors bear losses when things go badly.

• We need to make sure that bailouts are not an option.

• Make bankruptcy work for large financial companies.

AIG Bailout: Investment Success?

Yes, if simply getting paid back is success. In that case, I’d like to borrow $100 from you today. I’ll pay it back in 5 years. No, if we consider opportunity cost and risk.Lots of companies were looking for cash in 2008.Private consortium had decided AIG was lousy

investment.If gov’t is playing investor, it has to consider risk-

reward tradeoff. We could have earned a better return on a lower-risk investment.

Questions?Hester Peircehpeirce@mercatus.gmu.edu703-993-4941

This presentation is based on a working paper, which is available at: http://mercatus.org/publication/securities-lending-and-untold-story-collapse-aig Source information is available in that paper.