Fastest Declining Occupations

WORKFORCE 2010-2020

Board of Trustees’ RetreatNovember 16, 2004

“We cannot produce twenty-first century knowledge workers in nineteenth century public school, early-twentieth century higher education institutions, or mid-twentieth century federal job training programs.”

Workforce 2020

Overview

Forces shaping the workforce landscape

U.S. & Minnesota Jobs Models and tools for assessing

higher education response Next steps

Components for Future of Minnesota Workforce

POPULATIONTRENDS

WorkforceNeeds

Education

Future

Forces Shaping The American Economy

Rapid technological change Global integration – the rest of the

world matters; outsourcing will continue Rapid economic growth in certain

nations Deregulation and liberalization Demographic change Technological change - automation

Rising To The Challenges Of Workforce 2020

Labor market will demand highly educated workers

Low skilled jobs that can be done elsewhere will disappear in U.S.

New technology and global competition will create unprecedented volatility in the world of work

Work environments will improve Workplace will be increasingly diverse

Will There Be A Skills Gap?

Skill levels in language, mathematics, and reasoning development need improvement

Productivity and quality of life dependent on a more highly skilled, educated workforce

Declining jobs, declining skill levels Expanding occupations, high skills

What are the effects of these trends that you witness in your business or other areas of your life?

Trends in Occupations

The 10 Occupations With The Largest Job Growth, 2002-12 Percent & Education Or Training

1. Registered nurses 2. Postsecondary teachers 3. Retail salespersons4. Customer service

representative5. Combined food preparation

and serving workers, including fast food

6. Cashiers, except gaming 7. Janitors and cleaners, except

maids and housekeeping cleaners

8. General and operations managers

9. Waiters and waitresses 10. Nursing aides, orderlies, and

attendants

1. 27% Associate degree 2. 38% Doctoral degree 3. 15% Short-term on-the-job training 4. 24% Moderate-term on-the-job

training 5. 23% Short-term on-the-job training

6. 18% Short-term on-the-job training7. 13% Short-term on-the-job training

8. 18% Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

9. 18% Short-term on-the-job training10. 25% Short-term on-the-job

training

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fastest Growing Occupations2000-2012

Medical assistants Network systems and data

communications analysts Physician assistants Social and human service

assistants Home health aides Medical records and health

information technicians Physical therapist aides Computer software engineers,

applications Computer software engineers,

systems software Physical therapist assistants

Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors

Database administrators Veterinary technologists

and technicians Hazardous materials

removal workers Dental hygienists Occupational therapist aides

Dental assistants Personal and home care

aides Self-enrichment education

teachers Computer systems analysts

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fastest Declining Occupations2000-2012

Telephone operators Word processors and typists Textile knitting and weaving machine

setters, operators, and tenders Sewing machine operators Shuttle car operators Textile winding, twisting, and drawing

out machine setters, operators, and tenders

Radio mechanics Textile bleaching and dyeing machine

operators and tenders Roof bolters, mining Fishers and related fishing workers Shoe machine operators and tenders All other communications equipment

operators

Fabric and apparel patternmakers Railroad brake, signal, and switch

operators Textile cutting machine setters,

operators, and tenders Sewers, hand Farmers and ranchers Continuous mining machine operators Electrical and electronic equipment

assemblers Bridge and lock tenders Computer operators Shoe and leather workers and repairers Brokerage clerks Loan interviewers and clerks Meter readers, utilities

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Minnesota Outlook

Minnesota Is Bigger, Older And Better Educated: 1960-2000

3.4 million

28.5

37.6%

1.2%

7.5%

4.9 million

35.4

26.2%

11.8%

27.4%

Source: University of Minnesota

1960 2000

Population

Median Age

Under age 18

Percent minority

4+ years of college

Educational Attainment Migration Patterns Diversity & Education Population Distribution Earnings by Educational

Attainment Aging of the Baby Boomers

Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer

Minnesota Themes

Minnesota Education Attainment Rose Sharply In The 90s

-22.0%

-0.1%

44.1%

2.5%

40.3%

51.8%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Less Than HighSchool

High School

Some College

Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate or Prof Degree

Percent Change 90-00 In Population 25+

2000 Census

Net Migration To Minnesota By Educational Attainment For People Age 25 And Older

16,400

10,000

9,500

14,900

9,700

02,000

4,0006,000

8,00010,000

12,00014,000

16,00018,000

20,000

Less than HighSchool

High School

Some College

Bachelors Degree

Advanced Degree

2000 Census PUMS 5%

Growth In Minority Population Accounted For More Than 100% Of Minnesota’s

Increase In 18-24 Year Olds 1990-2000

442,809

31,916

470,434

72,220

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Total Minority

1990

2000

1990 & 2000 Census

Education Attainment Population 25 To 34

16.1%

27.5%

7.6%

34.5%

11.7%

31.7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

% less thanHigh School

% Bachelorsor more

MnStd to US MinorityPopulation

Mn

US

2000 Census

Percent Of Population 18 To 24 Enrolled In Higher Education

38%

22%

21%

41%

13%

36%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

White

Black

American Indian

Asian

Latino

Total

Percent Enrolled In Higher Education2000 Census PUMS 5%

Lost Population

Gained Population

Population Change 1920 To 2000Source U.S. Census

State: +63,555

-2,959 to -60 -60 to 300 300 to 9,343

Projected change in population 15 to 242000 to 2010

Nearly 3/5ths of the State’s labor force lives in the 7-county Twin Cities Region

R e g i o n a l L a b o r F o r c e D i s t r i b u t i o nS e p t e m b e r 2 0 0 4

N o r t h w e s t

10 %N o r t h e a s t

6 %

C e n t r a l

11%

S o u t h w e s t

7 %

S o u t h e a s t

9 %

M e t r o

5 7 %

Source: LAUS, DEED-LMI

Total Annual Earnings, Currently Employed Minnesotans Age 25 to 54

$20,000

$26,000

$30,000

$38,000

$46,000

$57,000

$0

$10,

000

$20,0

00

$30,0

00

$40,

000

$50,0

00

$60,0

00

$70,0

00

$80,0

00

Less Than HighSchool

High School Diploma

Some College

Bachelors Degree

Masters Degree

Advanced Degree

2000 Census PUMS 5%

Projections for 2010—Labor Force

• Labor force will increase to a range of 2.9 mil and 3.1 mil, increases of between 7% and 16%.

• Uncertainty about labor force growth results from uncertainty about migration and labor force participation, especially over 60.

• Most growth will be among 45 to 64 (increase of 32% to 39%). Age 24 to 44 will see a decline as much as 10%.

Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer

Projected Labor Force--2003

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Census

Series A

Series B

Series C

Series D

State Demographer projections

After 2010, Most Population Growth In Minnesota Will Be In People Age 65+

26%23%

9%16%

60%

95%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30

Ra

tio

Ch

an

g 6

5+

to

To

tal

Po

pu

lati

on

State Demographer projection

Age 25 to 34 Percent With Less Than High School Diploma

7.6%

42.2%

4.3%

18.6%

22.6%

15.9%

16.1%

43.6%

9.0%

18.7%

20.6%

10.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Total

Latino

White Not Hisp

Black, Not Hisp

Am Indian, Not Hisp

Asian, Not Hisp

United States

Minnesota

2000 Census

Educational Attainment Rises

24.8%

20.3%17.6%

21.8%19.6%

24.4%

12.1%

27.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

US LessThan High

School

USBachelorsDegree or

More

Mn LessThan High

School

MnBachelorsDegree or

More

Per

cen

t O

f P

op

ula

tio

n 2

5+

1990

2000

The Level of Future Economic Growth Will Depend Ever More On A Highly Productive

Labor Force

• Slower growth of the labor force will place more importance on increasing per worker productivity

• Minnesota’s labor force growth will depend largely on continued activity of older workers and migration to the state

• Training of young Minnesotan’s, retraining of older workers and training and certifications of migrants will be key roles of education

Occupational Trends in Minnesota Over 70 percent of Minnesotans work in

service-producing industries Service and retail trade industries are

projected to add the most jobs in Minnesota between 2000 and 2010

Sales, information technology, office and health occupations are projected to add the most jobs.

While short-term OJT jobs are booming, jobs requiring Bachelor’s or Associate’s degree are the fastest growing.

How is MnSCU responding to the need to be more responsive to workforce needs?

Models and Tools for Aligning Workforce Needs and Higher Education

Visits with Business and Industry Competitive grants for curricular

development in high need areas Matched Leveraged equipment grants

(previous funding cycle) Federal agenda to secure additional outside

funding Coordination with key industries such as

Allied Health Models to target highest need areas

MnSCU- College and University Planning Profile System

DEED- High need clusters Minnesota High Tech Association study

Business and Industry Visits

Changing Workplace Image and Public Perception Community Vitality System Efficiencies Relationship with Secondary

Education

Business and Industry: What is Working Business and industry partnerships Customized training; nimbleness and

responsiveness Services to dislocated workers Customer service Provision of positive learning

environments and education for students Businesses like to hire our graduates

after internships and mentoring experiences

Themes Employers need training for incumbent

workers , new workers at speed as soon as possible. Increases in supervisory management Soft skill management and leadership training Industry safety Health Computer training

Downturns and upswings impact students’ perceptions of a field

Increasing the customizing of training delivery

MnSCU Assessment: CUPPSStatewide Current Shortage Clusters

Cluster Employment ShortageEntry Hourly

Wage

Health 102,260 -7,203 $17.65

Education 52,805 -1,296 $16.08

Information Technology

34,581 -3,507 $19.20

Mechanics 20,894 -1,256 $14.16

Business andFinancial Services

259,666 -9,584 $16.64

Department of Employment and Economic Development

Key Industries, Key Occupations, Key Skills in the Twin Cities

Health care Finance and insurance Professional and technical Transportation High tech manufacturing

Next StepsTransform Higher Education

Strengthen the quality of early education Keep quality high Deal with high levels of remediation Provide good information about job

market and education required Deal with the mismatch between higher

education and the economy Monitor and respond to labor market demands Create array of options for life long learning

Vision for the Future5-year Market Responsive Goals

Trainers of choice for local businesses

Business involvement in strategic plans-specific job needs

Career-ladder degrees Blur lines between credit

and noncredit courses Flexible training and

delivery systems One-stop centers Collaboration between

colleges

Creation of bridge programs K-16 for seamless service

Center of excellence Develop set of economic goals

and objectives by the community

Workforce investment boards develop regional economic centers at colleges

Small businesses create contracts with colleges

Return on investment from market responsive colleges is equal to regional development

21st Century Community CollegeSeptember 2004

What is the vision for MnSCU in relation to market responsiveness?