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Dirk Van DammeHead of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation - OECD
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Governing education in a context of economic recession
Dirk Van DammeHead of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation - OECD
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Outline
• Impact of the recession on education
• Changing policy contexts
• Governance of education systems
• Some conclusions
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“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste”
Paul Romer – Emanuel Rahm
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Impact of the recession on education
• Rising demand for education– Lower opportunity costs for education– Delaying entry on the labour market is a
rational strategy– Private sector reducing investments in
training– Hence, increased demand for post-
compulsory education, especially in VET• But private cost of participation also
increases– Some countries increase private cost,
while others try to contain the private cost by social measures
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Impact of the recession on education
• Private benefits from post-compulsory education continue to be high in most countries– High private return– But also high social returns
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Impact of the recession on education
• Transition from school to labour market becomes more difficult– Rising youth unemployment probably the
most visible and problematic social consequence of the recession
– On average in OECD increase in youth unemployment rate from 10.3% to 13.5% from 2008 to 2009
– Low schooled people are very vulnerable for weak employment opportunities
When the crisis hitPercentage point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for the 15-29 year-olds
Portugal
Germany
Belgium
Sweden
Denmark
Poland
Finland
OECD average
Australia
United Kingdom
Hungary
Czech Republic
Turkey
Ireland
Iceland
(10.00) (5.00) - 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Below upper secondary education Tertiary education
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Impact of the recession on education
• Most governments try to contain the impact of the recession and fiscal consolidation on education budgets– In 2009 and 2010 still few signs of budget
cuts in education, but notable exceptions in a few countries
– Some countries included educational investments in their stimulus measures
– 2011 and 2012 budgets may result in different picture
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Impact of the recession on education
• Many countries see the recession as an opportunity to accelerate educational reform– Tackling youth employment, meeting
increased educational demand, prepare future economic growth and fostering innovation
• Educational reform more and more focused on increasing efficiency in education systems
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Impact of the recession on education
Primary Secondary Tertiary VET
Australia Reduction
Belgium (Fl) Acceleration
Denmark Acceleration
Finland Reduction Reduction Reduction
Greece Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration
Hungary Reduction Reduction Acceleration
Ireland Expansion Expansion Expansion Expansion
Japan Expansion Expansion Expansion
Korea Acceleration Reduction
Portugal Expansion
Spain Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration
Sweden Expansion
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Changing policy contexts
• Changing skills policies– Competition between nations in high-
qualified and high-skilled people is rising– High social costs of low skills– Qualifications without matching skills
levels will become economically detrimental
– Growing importance of comparative and realistic assessment of skills and learning outcomes (PISA, PIAAC, AHELO)
– Importance of changing skills demands as result of technology and innovation (21st C skills)
Growth in university-level qualificationsApproximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A education in the
age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years (2008)
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19
ave
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
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2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's
%
Low skills and economic outcomes
0 1 2 3 41.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
In lowest two quintiles of personal income
Unemployed
Received social as-sistance in last year
Did not receive in-vestment income in last year
Number of skills domains with low performance
Increased likelihood of failure (16-65 year olds)
Odds are adjusted for age, gender and immigration status.
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Changing policy contexts
• Efficiency of education systems will become top-priority– Most education systems have seen a
significant increase in resources over the past 10 years without a comparable increase in output
– Especially failing schools will come into the picture
– Schools and teachers more and more held accountable for learning outcomes
– Policies focusing on the efficiency gaps in the system
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Governance
• Recent trends in educational governance– From central regulation to decentralisation
and deregulation• Often intended, not always realised• Multiplication of governance levels
– From input- to output steering– Stakeholder participation and more
demand-oriented policies– Increasing school autonomy
• School leadership and management• Local control over curricula
Governance
Main level of decision-making regarding secondary education
curriculum
School Mixed Central
Central influence
Low (highly flexible)
Australia, Hungary,
Netherlands, New
Zealand, Scotland
Korea Iceland
Neutral
Estonia, Finland, France, Japan
Italy, Norway, Sweden
Austria, Luxembourg,
Mexico, Portugal,
Spain, Slovenia, Turkey
High (control from a distance)
Belgium (Fl.), Czech
Republic, England
~ ~
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Governance
• Recent trends in educational governance– Increasing accountability on performance
• Based on measurable objectives and indicators
– ‘Governing by numbers’
– Focus on evaluation and quality assurance– Increasing transparency
• Both at institutional and system level• Transparency on all dimensions:
– Input– Process– Outputs
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Governance
• Contemporary governance models are combination of public regulation and market mechanisms
• Crucial role of knowledge and evidence in central and local governance– ‘Evidence-based policy and practice’– New information and feedback systems in
education
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Conclusions
• The economic recession has not (yet) hit the education system but has set the conditions for a policy context which will focus more on effectiveness in realising outcomes (skills for employability) and efficiency
• Governance in education is changing with more local control but also more accountability and transparency
• Trust in education (for producing outcomes, for matching qualifications with skills, …) will become a critical factor in educational competition
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Thank you !
dirk.vandamme@oecd.orgwww.oecd.org/edu/ceri
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