Jon Richter's Keynote ELD11

Emerging Strategic Innovations in Educational Leadership

Emerging Learning Design ConferenceJune 3rd, 2011

Jonathon Richter, Ed.D. University of Oregon

"It is possible to believe that all the past is but the beginning of a beginning, and that all that is and has been is but the twilight of the dawn.It is possible to believe that all that the human mind has ever accomplished is but the dream before the awakening.”

~ H.G. Wells

Just as all education springs from some vision of

the future…

all education produces some image of the future

~ Alvin Toffler

Increasingly fast-paced world

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Increasingly interconnected times

Increasingly complex issues

http://www.fredcavazza.net/2010/12/14/social-media-landscape-2011/

Future Time Perspective

(Seijts, 1998)

Extension: how far into the future does your active work extend?

Coherence: how organized is your future-focused thinking?

Density: how many thoughts about the future are active?

Directionality: how well are you moving along from present to future?

Affectivity: are you gratified about your progress toward the future?

From http://www.flickr.com/photos/9797495@N04/2230841530/

Time to adoption: One Year or Less

Electronic Books Mobiles

Time to adoption: Two to Three Years

Augmented Reality Game-based Learning

Time to adoption: Four to Five Years

Gesture-based Computing Learning Analytics

www.educause.edu/Resources/2011HorizonReport/223122

Gartner Report on Emerging Technologies, September 2010

http://digitalgames.playthinklearn.net/

Learning Sciences• Outcome-based courses• Deep learning• Fast formative feedback• Learning about learning• Expert personal help

Creative Possibilities• “on becoming” a course• Far learning• Active Participation• Learning as play• “The Scholar’s Journey”

Science Potential

The future is already here, it's just not very evenly distributed.

~ William Gibson

Culture adoption lags behind technological innovation

Ogburn’s Theory of Cultural Lag

Persistent Forecasting of

Disruptive Technologies

National Research Council 2009

Futures Studies is Dead.

Long Live Futures Studies.

learner analytics

virtual worlds

• Working up the Slope of Enlightenment• Collaborative work routines• Discovering and exploiting sweet spots

between design tensions

Using virtual worlds to illustrate images of the future:a continuum of infinite possibilities

all possible images of the future

dystopiasnightmares

utopiasvisionsscenarios:

downside

scenarios:scenarios:

upside

wild cards!

wild cards!

Image courtesy of Wendy L. Schultz: http://www.infinitefutures.com

Goodbye “Mediocristan”

Hello, Extremistan!http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515

Which shall we drive through –

the grass or the trees?

Learning Technologies Ecosystem

mobilesocial networkslearner analyticsvideo gamesvirtual worldsnew learning management systemscloud-based services

Future-focused learning• Extend students time horizons (length)

• Develop cohesive goals, anchored to action (cohesiveness)

• Populate individual goal horizons (density)

• Give students agency (directionality)

• Give them real reasons to feel good about their own futures (affective)

= “high achievement orientation” (Seijts)

The future belongs to those who givethe next generation reason to hope

~ Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume46/InSearchofFutureFocusedLearnin/228663

Credits not appearing inline

• Global Internet Map: http://www.telegeography.com/telecom-resources/map-gallery/global-internet-map-2011/

• “Facebook: You’re Doing It Wrong”: http://www.worldcupblog.org• Gerard Seijts, “The importance of Future Time Perspective in theories of

work motivation”; Journal of Psychology: Interdisciplinary and Applied 132(2), pp. 154-168.