Moores Law

Moore’s Law“the magic of our time”

19th Century Camera – Golden Age

Cameras in early 20th Century

Cameras over the years

Current SLRs and Digital Cameras

Kids Cameras

Key Chain Cameras

First mobile phone invented by Martin Cooper @ Motorola in 1973

Cellphones in 90’s

LG phones today

2009 Top Cell Phones

World’s smallest cell phone?

1962 - IBM 2MB storage disks, weighed 5 pounds each

1967 IBM Storage System128 GB – 1M$s

1980 IBM 3380 storage system 20GB - 150,000$s each

Hard Drives over years

SimpleTech external hard disks

2009 Kingston DataTraveler ThumbDrives

What’s going on?

First Transistor invented @ Bell Labs in 1947

Replica of First Transistor at CHM

Transistors over the years

2008 Intel Core i7 – 800M transistors, built on 45nm

technology

Gordon Earl Moore

1965 –Moore’s Original Diagram

Cost per Transistor

Intel Processor Timeline

# transistors produced in 2005 > # of grains of rice produced that year

Storage Capacities at Retail Stores

Pixels per array

Bandwidth Costs

Doubling Times for Various Technologies in Months

What drives all this?

• In 2005 Moore said, "Moore's law is really about economics." 

• In the same session Carver Mead made it clearer yet: Moore's Law, he says, "is really about people's belief system, it's not a law of physics, it's about human belief, and when people believe in something, they'll put energy behind it to make it come to pass.

For how much long?

• Moore in 2005 predicted at least a decade

• In 2009, Intel CEO Craig Barrett said "We can scale it down another 10 to 15 years. Nothing touches the economics of it."

• Estimates range from another 5 yrs to forever

• Pushing against limits of Physics and Chemistry at atomic level

# of computations per second per $1000 – Ray Kurzweil

Technology Curves – Golden Age is ahead of us

1969 Kitchen Computer• Kitchen Computer 1969, Neiman Marcus, United States• The Kitchen Computer was featured in the 1969 Neiman Marcus

catalog as a $10,600 tool for housewives to store and retrieve recipes. Unfortunately, the user interface was only binary lights and switches. There is no evidence that any Kitchen Computer was ever sold. Inside was a standard Honeywell 316 minicomputer, billed as the first 16-bit machine at that price from a major computer manufacturer.

• Memory Type : Core• Speed : 0.6 MHz• Memory Size:16K• Cost : $10,600• Memory Width : (16-bit)