Pimm

Saving species

Bogota, 2010

Stuart L. PimmDoris Duke Professor of Conservation Ecology

Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University

And

Extraordinary Professor

Conservation Ecology Research Unit

University of Pretoria

Part I Species extinction • high — 100x to 1000x background, • irreversible, • geographically concentratedPart II Tropical deforestation main driver of terrestrial extinctions Part III Global climate disruption• Could be as bad as habitat lossPart IV: What does it take to stop extinctions?

Part I

Species extinction

• How fast? high — 100x to 1000x•Which species? Those with small ranges• Where? geographically concentrated• Why Colombia is so important

Pimm, S. L., P. Raven, A. Peterson, C. H. Sekercioglu, and P. R. Ehrlich. 2006. Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.A.) 103: 10941-10946

How fast are species going extinct?To answer that, we need to know how long we’ve known the species

Linné 1760 — but most exploration started after 1815

Date of Description

Date of <1600 1600s 1700s 1800s >1900 sum

extinction <1600 0 0 6 6

1600s 2 4 4 10

1700s 4 10 13 27

1800s 10 37 1 48

>1900 12 39 12 63

 sum 28 90 36   154

CD* 5 16 4 25

Critical** 13 91 53 157

All 1689 7079 1207 9975

*CD Conservation dependent**Critically endangered

We know birds best

Extinct when described

Date of Description

Date of <1600 1600s 1700s 1800s >1900 sum

extinction <1600 0 0 6 6

1600s 2 4 4 10

1700s 4 10 13 27

1800s 10 37 1 48

>1900 12 39 12 63

 sum 28 90 36   154

CD* 5 16 4 25

Critical** 13 91 53 157

All 1689 7079 1207 9975

*CD Conservation dependent**Critically endangered

39 species described from 1800 to 1899 went extinct in 1900 or later

In 1900, of the known 8701 living species, 51 became extinct in the next 106 years.

— That’s 58 extinctions per million species-year [MSY]. Another 21 species are “conservation dependent.” 157 are “critically endangered”

Pimm, S. L., P. Raven, A. Peterson, C. H. Sekercioglu, and P. R. Ehrlich. 2006. Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (U.S.A.) 103: 10941-10946

Lisa Manne, Thomas M. Brooks and Stuart L. Pimm

Nature 399, 258-261

For a given range size, lowland continental species are more likely to be threatened than are species on islands

Which species will go extinct?

Where are the extinctions going to be?

•The patterns of species richness

•Small ranged species are in special places.

•Geological history matters

Maps: Clinton Jenkins, data NatureServe

Source Clinton Jenkins; from data from NatureServeMaps: Clinton Jenkins, data NatureServe

Mammals

Maps: Clinton Jenkins, data NatureServe

oscines

suboscines

oscines

suboscines

Part II Tropical deforestation

Very large — >100,00km2 per year

Disproportionately in places where there is most biodiversity

Tropical forestsWe are shrinking them rapidly

S.L. Pimm and C. N. Jenkins Scientific American September 2005

Original forest: from WWF Ecoregions

Remaining forest: GLC 2000; from SPOT

… and extinctions are going to happen here, and happen very quickly.

Part III: Climate disruption

Massive, complex, involves many different processes

•

High latitudes are warming more than the tropics…

But species in the tropics may be more sensitive

Pararge aegeria

Black 1915 to 1939Red 1940 to 1969Blue 1970 to 1997

Parmesan et al. (1999) Nature 399: 579-583

Current and predicted range of Tijuca atra

Tijuca condita lives at even higher elevations

Part IV: What can we do?

1.Understand what species are at risk2.The importance of forest carbon3.Stop deforestation4.Restore fragmented habitats5.— especially those that connect lowlands to uplands

Understand the problem:How many species are at risk of extinction in Colombia?

German Forero-Medina, Lucas Joppa & Stuart L. Pimm (In press. Conservation Biology)

Understanding how species might shift their ranges

Question: How many species of plants and animals in Colombia are within 2oC of the nearest mountain top?In other words, how species will likely go extinct if there is a 2oC rise in temperature*?

*And the world leaders did reach an agreement to keep it that low in Copenhagen

Carbon emissions from deforestation are >15% of the total

More than all vehicles.More than the European Union

Brazil and Indonesia follow China and the USA as the top greenhouse gas emitting

Forest emissions are a huge, global problem

Norway saves the world

http://blogs.nationalgeographic.com/blogs/news/chiefeditor/2009/11/529-brazil-forest-conservation-victory.html

How did Brazil do it?1.Good science — satellite monitoring2.Enforcement — and $1B promised from Norway

But REDD has to be done right!The "Procuenca Initiative" in the Andes region of western Colombia may be the first in the world to sell certified forest carbon credits with a biodiversity protection component. But alarms are sounding about the potential negative social and environmentalconsequences.

Under way since 2001, the programme will begin to operate in the international market next year, having received official registration Apr. 16 under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

There is huge potential for restoration

Globally, restoring cattle pastures would sequester 5 x 106 x 102 x 7.5 = 3.75 Gigatons C per year for 20 years +

1 ha has ~150 t Carbon

1 ha can sequester 7.5 t Carbon per year for 20 years +

Globally 7 million km2 cleared2 million km2 for crops, 5 million km2 for cattle pasture.

Three Biomes present less than 5% level of protection while containing high relative number of threatened species. These are the Zonobioma húmedo tropical del Pacífico y Atrato (19 species), Zonobioma alternohígrico y/o subxerofítico tropical del Alto Magdalena (16 species), and the Zonobioma seco tropical del Caribe (13 species) All of these biomes are located in flat lowland areas, in the western and northern plains, and the valley between the Andes. 

German Forero-Medina, Lucas Joppa & Stuart L. Pimm (Under review)

The Pacific biome Zonobioma humedo tropical del Pacifico y el Atrato. German Forero-Medina,

Lucas Joppa & Stuart L. Pimm (Under review)

Species richness of ~200 endemic passerine birds

Case 1: Coastal Brazil

S.L. Pimm and C. N. Jenkins Scientific American September 2005

IUCN The Netherlands

Will the USA keep its promise?