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Public Religion Research Institute
Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Daniel Cox, Director of Research
God and Poli*cs What Public Opinion Tells us about Religion in the 2012 ElecAon
March 2012
UNDERSTANDING THE RELIGIOUS AND POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 2
Shi;s among Protestants by Race 1974 – 2010
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1980
1983
1984
1985
1986
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: General Social Survey 1974-‐2008; Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2010 (N=3,013)
Ethnic Change Among Protestants (1974-‐2010) White Protestant Black Protestant
54
10 9
36
3
Shi;s among Catholics by Ethnicity 1991 -‐ 2009
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1991 1992 1993 1994 1997 1999 2002 2003 2007 2009 Source: Pew Research Center Surveys 1991-‐2009
Ethnic Change among Catholics 1991-‐2009 Hispanic Catholic White Catholic
14
2
8
21
4
2008 Presiden*al Vote by Religion
96
78 77 73
47 46
26
4
22 23 27
53 54
74
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Black Protestant Other Non-‐ChrisAan
Unaffiliated LaAno Catholic White Catholic White Mainline White Evangelical
2008 Presiden*al Vote by Religion Obama McCain
Source: NEP, NaAonal Exit Poll, 2008
2010 Midterm Vote by Religion
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
96
75 69
58
42 40
19
4
25 31
42
58 60
81
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Black Protestant Other Non-‐ChrisAan
Unaffiliated LaAno Catholic White Mainline White Catholic White Evangelical
2010 Midterm Vote by Religion Democrat Republican
Source: NEP, NaAonal House Exit Poll, 2010
6
ROMNEY AND THE MORMON QUESTION
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 7
The Evangelical Drag on Romney
40
28
17 13
44
22 21
13
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul
South Carolina Republican Primary Exit Poll
All Voters White Evangelical Voters
25
21
25
13
33
19
14 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Santorum Paul Romney Gingrich
Iowa Republican Primary Entrance Poll
All Voters White Evangelical Voters
Importance of President having Strong Religious Beliefs (Voters)
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
0"
10"
20"
30"
40"
50"
60"
70"
80"
90"
100"
All"Voters" White"
Evangelical"
Black"Protestant" Catholic" White"Mainline" Unaffiliated"
How$Important$is$it$for$Presiden2al$Candidates$to$have$Strong$Religious$Beliefs?$
Important" Not"Important"
Source:"Public"Religion"Research"InsNtute,"American"Values"Survey,"September"2011"(N=1,505)""
67%$
33%$
93%$
7%$
83%$
16%$
69%$
30%$
67%$
32%$ 32%$
68%$
9
Evalua*ons of the Mormon Faith and the Religious Beliefs of Mormons
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
All#Voters#
White#Evangelical#
Republican#
Tea#Party#
All#Voters#
White#Evangelical#
Republican#
Tea#Party#
Mormon&faith&is¬&a&Chris.an&religion&
Mormons&have&religious&beliefs&that&are&different&from&own&
36%$
50%$
61%$
68%$
66%$
31%$
39%$
49%$
Source:#Public#Religion#Research#Ins=tute,#American#Values#Survey,#September#2011#(N=1,505)##
10
Discomfort with Mormon Serving as President
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
Percentage of voters who would be somewhat uncomfortable or very uncomfortable with a Mormon serving as President
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
11
PRESIDENT OBAMA AND RELIGION
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 12
Knowledge of Obama’s Religion
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
40
38
18
4
What is President Obama's Religion?
Don't know
ChrisAan
Muslim
Not Religious
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, PRRI/RNS Religion News Survey, July 2011 (N=1,012)
13
Views of President Obama’s Religious Beliefs
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
12
28
16
35
9
Among General Popula*on
Very similar
Somewhat similar
Somewhat different
Very different
Don't know
9
26
18
38
9
Among Whites
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Post-‐elecAon American Values Survey, November 2010 (N=1,494)
14
Impact of Views of President Obama’s Religious Beliefs on Favorability
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
24
51
39
17
7
32
43
47
39
13
17
3
7
23
27
25
3
6
21
51
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Total
Very similar
Somewhat similar
Somewhat different
Very different
Favorability of Obama
Very favorable Mostly favorable Mostly unfavorable Very unfavorable
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Post-‐elecAon American Values Survey, November 2010 (N=1,494)
15
Religious Differences Scores for Obama and Romney
!0.50% !0.40% !0.30% !0.20% !0.10% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
Religion(Index((Scale:(12(=(very(different,(+2(=(very(similar)(Source:(Public(Religion(Research(InsBtute,(PRRI/RNS(Religion(News(Survey,(July(2011(
Percep&ons*of*Differences*between*Poli&cal*Leaders'*Religious*Beliefs*and*Public's*Own*Religious*Beliefs**
Obama%(!0.40)%
Romney%(!0.43)%
Bush%(0.00)%
More%Different% More%Similar%
FAULT LINES TO WATCH IN 2012
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 17
Tensions between Occupy Wall Street vs. Tea Party Values
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
23
6
23
49
Shares Your Values: Occupy Wall Street vs. Tea Party
Shares values with the Tea Party Shares values with Both Shares values with Occupy Wall Street Shares values with Neither/DK
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, PRRI/RNS Religion News Survey, November 2011 (N=1,002)
30% 30%
18
Uneasiness about the American Dream
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
The$American$Dream$-$"if$you$work$hard,$you'll$get$ahead"$
S"ll$holds$true$
Once$held$true,$but$not$anymore$
Never$held$true$
Source:$Public$Religion$Research$Ins"tute,$PRRI/RNS$Religion$News$Survey,$November$2011$(N=1,002)$
44%$
48%$
6%$
19
Uneasiness about Diversity: Race and Concerns about “Reverse Discrimina*on”
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
23#
29#
30#
36#
44#
45#
46#
51#
51#
60#
63#
68#
75#
68#
66#
62#
54#
52#
51#
46#
46#
40#
36#
31#
0# 20# 40# 60# 80# 100#
Most#Trust#Public#Television#
Blacks#
Hispanics#
Democrats#
Millennials#(18C29)#
Independents#
General#public#
Seniors#(65+)#
Whites#
Republicans#
Tea#Party#
Most#Trust#Fox#News#
Source:#Public#Religion#Research#InsTtute,#Pluralism,#ImmigraTon,#Civic#IntegraTon#Survey,#August#2011#(N=2,450)#####
Discrimina)on+Against+Whites+Now+as+Big+a+Problem+as+Discrimina)on+Against+Blacks+and+other+Minori)es+
Agree# Disagree#
20
Divisions over Equal Opportunity by Poli*cal Affilia*on
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
All Americans Democrat Independent Republican Tea Party
Equal Opportunity by Poli*cal Affilia*on One of the big problems in this country is that we don’t give everyone an equal chance in life
It is not really that big a problem if some people have more of a chance in life than others
53%
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
40%
70%
25%
53%
40%
70%
25%
50% 43%
38%
54%
37%
54%
Support for More Equal Distribu*on of Wealth
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
Society would be bejer off if the distribu*on of wealth were more equal Percent Agreeing
22
American Excep*onalism by Religious Tradi*on
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
58
32
43
54
54
84
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
All Americans
Unaffiliated
Non-‐ChrisAans
White mainline
Catholics
White evangelicals
God has granted America a special role in human history Percent Agreeing
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Post-‐elecAon American Values Survey, November 2010 (N=1,494)
23
PERCEPTIONS OF AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE ACT (AKA OBAMACARE)
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 24
Effect of the Health Care Reform Law on Access to Health Insurance
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
37
65
50
39 36 36 35
31
20
34
21
28
38 33
29 32
28
39
24
11 15
18
25 26 26 26
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
All Americans Black Protestant
Non-‐ChrisAan Unaffiliated Catholic White Catholic
White Mainline
Other ChrisAan
White Evangelical
Effect of the Health Care Reform Law Access to Health Insurance
More people insured No difference Fewer people insured
30%
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
25
Effect of the Health Care Reform Law on Affordability of Health Care
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
25
35 33
31 28
24 21 21
10
30
43
31
37
30
19 18 20
35 39
17
30
22
37 38
54 52 51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
All Americans Black Protestant
Unaffiliated Non-‐ChrisAan Catholic Other ChrisAan
White Catholic
White Mainline
White Evangelical
Effect of the Health Care Reform Law Affordability of Health Care
More affordable No difference Less affordable
30%
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
26
TAXATION
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 27
Is it Fair to Ask Wealthier Americans to Pay a Greater Percentage in Taxes
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
68 72 72 72
63 60
30 25 26 27
36 39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
All Americans White Mainline Catholic Unaffiliated White Catholic White Evangelical
In Order to Reduce the Deficit, It's Fair to Ask Wealthier Americans to Pay a Greater Percentage in Taxes than the Middle Class or Those
Less Well Off Agree Disagree
30%
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, PRRI/RNS Religion News Survey, November 2011 (N=1,002)
28
The Buffet Rule
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012
70 74 74
71 69 69 69 69 65
27 24 24 26
29 29 28 23
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
All Americans Catholic Unaffiliated Non-‐ChrisAan
White Mainline
White Catholic
Black Protestant
Other ChrisAan
White Evangelical
Favorability of Increasing the Tax Rate on Americans Earning more than $1 dollars a year
Favor Oppose
30%
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
29
IMMIGRATION
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 30
Growing Number of Newcomers: Threat or Strength?
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 31
53 42
1 1 3
Aptudes towards the growing number of newcomers
Strengthens American society
Threatens tradiAonal American customs and values
Neither
Both
Don't know
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Pluralism, ImmigraAon, Civic IntegraAon Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
Polariza*on over Immigra*on Policy By Party
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 32
57 56 48
39 40
26
42 46
29
56 55 49
70 67 60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
FAVOR DREAM ACT-‐Allowing illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as
children to gain legal resident status if they join the military or go to college
FAVOR PATH TO CITIZENSHIP-‐Allowing undocumented immigrants who have
been in the U.S. for several years to earn legal working status and an opportunity
for ciAzenship in the future
DISAGREE WITH DEPORTATION-‐We should make a serious effort to deport all illegal immigrants back to their home
countries
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Pluralism, ImmigraAon, Civic IntegraAon Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
DREAM Act, Path to Ci*zenship, and Deporta*on by Party
General Public Tea Party Republicans Independents Democrats
With Excep*on of White Evangelicals, Broad Religious Support for DREAM Act
Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 33
57
44
54 58
64 65 66
40
52
42 40 36
30 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
General public White evangelical
White mainline Catholic Black Protestant Unaffiliated Non-‐ChrisAan affiliated
Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Pluralism, ImmigraAon, Civic IntegraAon Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
Support for the Dream Act by Religious Affilia*on
Favor Oppose
Dr. Robert P. Jones, President Daniel Cox, Director of Research
Public Religion Research Institute
GOD AND POLITICS What Public Opinion Tells us About Religion in the 2012 ElecAon
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