Revolutions 2.0: The Impact of the Jasmin Revolution in Tunisia

Tunisia REVOLUTIONDIGNITY AND LIBERTY

André Marquet

The irst Revolution

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Agenda Timeline

1989 1993 2001 2004 2011

Futu

re (?

)

BerlinWall

You

are the computer

public static boolean isAlive1989 (int age) {     if (age >= 22) {       return true; /*elevate your arm;*/     } else {       return false; /*stay still;*/     }   }

[F5] run!

{First Part}-Personal dots-

“Sometimes it feels that in the 80’s there was this evil malefic master mind that was responsible for all the kinds of incredibly adictive but at the same time dangerous toys that we grow up with.”

Nuno Markl, at his daily radio show“Caderneta de Cromos”

Its master piece!

Flamable materialsToxic materialsPoisoning materialsCutting materialsExploding materials

Chemistry

Kit

aaaaa

In 1989 I had my Dexter moment.

•30% of body with 3rd degree burns;•6 weeks at hospital;•Endless procedures;•4 years of physiotherapy.•Scars for life;

{Second Part}-It’s a big world out there!-

Francis Fukuyama Author of “The End of History”Economist and Philosopher

Still in 1989...“… the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”

1989

2005

Samuel HuntingtonAuthor of “The Clash of Civilization”America Political Scientist

But in 1993...

In 2001... You saw it on TV.

Youtube, Twitter, Facebook were not there... Cell phone network halted in parts of NY.... But Internet and Blackberrys kept working!

In 11/04/2004, for the first time non-mass media, but P2P was crucial towards the shift of power.

{Third Part}-To live without freedom-

...in 2005 I worked in Tunisia for one year.

By definition an authoritarian police state but, getting richer, and more developped while personal freedom was still repressed:• No right of assembly.• No democracy...• Something waiting to happen!

“As countries get richer, they will tend towards democracy.”

1989

Tuni

sia

GD

P pe

r cap

ita (U

SD)

2010

Dictator’ed inZin El Abidine Ben Ali

President of Tunisia1987-2011

In Saudi Arabia @undisclosed location.

rejectRecommendations:“Zin is all abour elegance and style!”Sarkozy, President of France

“A true champion of democracy.”Socrates, PM of Portugal

Status:

SarkozyFreedom Champion

Ben AliEx-dictator

The chaos

theory and

butterfly e

ffect“Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?”

Does the isolated activism of one man in the in the middle of Tunisia set off a revolution in all Arab countries?

Niall FergusonAuthor of Virtual HistoryHistorian

For Ferguson, great forces don't make history; individuals do and nothing is predetermined. Only the actions of individuals will determine whether we live in a better or worse world.

In December 17th, 2010, in the town of Ben Arous, a “butterfly” flaped its wings!

When 26 year old Mohamed Bouazizi decided for a desesperat act, by imolating himself in front of the municipality of Sidi Bouzid and by doing so, started a revolution.

Bouazizi survived for 18 days......hypocritically Ben Ali paid visited.

ضايع مالم، يفيد ما سامحيني، أمي، يا مسافركان إن سامحيني بإيديا، ماهو طريق فيما الزمان على لومي ألمي، كالم عصيت

, بكيت ما يزي رجوع غير من رايح ، Eعلي تلوميمالم يفيد عاد ما دموع، عيني من سالت ما و

و عييت أنا الناس، بالد في غدEار زمان علىنسأل و مسافر راح، اللي كل بالي من مشى

ينسEي باش السفر عزيزي زعمة بو محمد-Bouazizi final message on Facebook

The “Switch Effect”:

FearSwithON OFF

People were afraid no more!

Facebook, and other social networks were not the fuel but the catalyst.

Wanted for

crimes

against th

e

Tunisian p

eople

On January, 14th “Big Ben” flew to Saudi

{Final Part}-To learn to live with freedom-

Tunisia

EgyptLybia

Tunisia - Elections in June 2011Newcomers to democracy (more than 50 new political parties)!

Egypt - Elections in October/ November 2011The danger of the rise islamic political parties.

Lybia, Iemen, Baharain, Syria, Jordan... ?

!

!

All Revolutions are the samePortugal 1974/75 (Carnation Revolution)

Tunisia 2011 (Jasmin Revolution)

The risks for Tunisia:a) going bankrupt (like Portugal)b) going islamistc) all of the above!

Tunisian people to answer. A:___________________

Sometimes all it takes is a butterfly but just like it, democracy is fragile.

@amarquet

André Marquet

andre.marquet@beta-i.pt