Seizing the agenda | Being data-informed and measuring what we value

From Raising the Floor to Raising the Ceiling

Whole Education 6th Annual Conference

Twitter | @WholeEducation #Seizingtheagenda

Establishing a shared vision for school improvement

Seizing the Agenda

Being Data Informed and Measuring what we Value

Phil BourneDirector of School and Academy Compliancehttps://www.schooldata.org.uk

What are we going to explore…

• What have we learnt from the 2014-15 examination series?

• What did we learn about groups of schools and the network?

• What do we know about the new standards and accountability (KS2 and KS4)?

• How are we going to be monitored – challenges &/ opportunities?

• How might we look at information differently to support our students in a new world (PASS)?

KS4 2015, Statistical First Release, DFE, October 2015

Percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A*-C including English and maths

England, all schools, 1996-2015

KS2- What our schools reported?

6% improvement to 85% L4+RWM

50% of schools reported 100% in at least one progress

measure

The reported attainment gap is 6% less than in 2013-14

12 schools included – further analysis will be made following the amended data release

KS4- What our schools reported?

No significant change in threshold: 60% 5+A*-C inc E&M

Out of the total cohort entered for E-BAC

(37%), 72% attained C or above in all components.

There has been a 8 percentage point improvement in

Mathematics progress

17 schools included – further analysis will be made following the amended data releaseThe provisional data release shows that the network performed inline with that observed nationally

What happened in the 2014-15 series?

• 2014-15 compared to 2013-14 was reported as a stable year (OfQUAL, JCQ) Headline attainment up 0.2pp; E-BACC entry declined by 0.1% (38.6%) and attainment remained the same (23.9%) for state-funded;

• Many schools reported unexpected outcomes as a result of EdExcel Mathematics and those grade boundaries;

• The ‘raise the participation age’ policy required previous leavers to remain in some form of education or training for longer. OfQUAL via DFE: Entries for mathematics have increased, largely as a result of more post-16 students;

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/summer-2015-gcse-results-a-brief-explanation

• iGCSE entries increased by over 80,000 (source: ASCL) and lots of unexpected results (Impact of comparable versus actual outcomes - lets think about this one given what we know from above!).

• Schools who had opted in to P8 had their results shared in the Provisional data release.

EdExcel Mathematics (grade boundaries)

46 marks required in November 2012 (23% of all marks). June 2016, 65 marks required (32.5%)

Grade boundaries influenced by:• the requirement for all

students to continue with GCSE Mathematics post-16 if they have not already achieved a grade C

• significant increase in the number of entries (look back to November 2012)

What lesson will informed school leaders learn from this?

What do we need to think about in terms of Grade Boundaries and Comparable outcomes?

“The key principle of Ofqual’s comparable outcomes approach is that if the group of students taking exams this year are of a similar ability to students taking the exams last year, the total number of students getting each overall grade should be roughly the same”

The boundaries are therefore impacted by the known population (this cannot include those who are not known – new P16 and their resits, adult learners etc.) The rates of historic improvements observed in the past are likely to be historical.

Significant changes in the population may have also caused challenges in comparability. Even though the end result was one of apparent stability.

Source: EdExcel: http://qualifications.pearson.com/en/support/support-topics/results-certification/understanding-marks-and-grades.html

Stability in the 2014-15 series?Comparing differences in outcomes over time by individual schools (because we were told not to!)

Stability in the 2014-15 series?Comparing differences in outcomes over time by individual schools (because we were told not to!)

Stability in the 2014-15 series?Comparing differences in outcomes over time by individual schools (because we were told not to!)

Brave new world

KS2 Progress Measures• Progress measures in 2016 will work in a similar way to current

primary value-added measures or Progress 8 in secondary schools. A school’s score will be calculated by comparing their pupils’ KS2 results against those of all pupils nationally who had similar starting points.

• Pupils will be assigned to prior attainment groups based on their KS1 results.

• The department will confirm what score a school would need to get to have made ‘sufficient progress’ after the tests have been sat next summer.

And P8… what does this mean?• In 2017, new GCSE qualifications in

English and mathematics, graded 1-9, will be included in performance tables, with others to follow in 2018 and 2019.

• Points will be allocated to the new GCSEs on a 1-9 point scale corresponding to the new 1 to 9 grades, e.g. a grade 9 will get 9 points in the performance measures.

• To minimise change, unreformed GCSEs and all other qualifications will be mapped onto the 1-9 scale from 2017, rather than mapping new GCSEs onto the 1-8 scale and moving to 1-9 when unreformed GCSEs are no longer available.

Which students and schools may benefit the most from this?

Have they been a little rushed?https://www.gov.uk/guidance/2016-key-stage-2-assessment-and-reporting-arrangements-ara

Writing- Towards a new standard

Writing- Towards a new standard

Writing- Towards a new standard

Writing- Towards a new standard

• The similarities between the current expected standard and the specimen specification for a upper 4 are quite illuminating.

• The specimen specification is yet to be approved.

It is the profession who need to shape the answers

Do you know how well others schools are doing with a similar

intake and are you using this knowledge to challenge

expectations?

Benchmarking:What might the network value?

What will stakeholders want/ need?

Good criteria• Pupils’ progress is above average or improving across most subject

areas. Overall progress of disadvantaged pupils, disabled pupils and those with special educational needs is above average or improving.

• From different starting points, the proportions of pupils making and exceeding expected progress in English and in mathematics are close to or above national figures. The progress of the very large majority of disadvantaged pupils is similar to or improving in relation to other pupils nationally.

• Across almost all year groups and in a wide range of subjects, including in English and mathematics, current pupils make consistently strong progress, developing secure knowledge, understanding and skills, considering their different starting points.

What will stakeholders want/ need?

Outstanding criteria• For pupils generally, and specifically for disadvantaged

pupils, disabled pupils and those who have special educational needs, progress is above average across nearly all subject areas.

• From each different starting point, the proportions of pupils making and exceeding expected progress in English and in mathematics are high compared with national figures. The progress of disadvantaged pupils matches or is improving towards that of other pupils nationally.

Historic benchmarks are not so easy now…

Primary• National standard (broadly

equivocal to 4b combined)

Secondary• Comparable outcomes

(linked to national reference tests) but subject differences (Mathematics shown)

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/377771/2014-09-12-board-paper-for-new-gcses-in.pdf

Historic benchmarks are not so easy now…

Floor standards (Primary)• Schools will be above the floor if pupils make sufficient progress across all

of reading, writing and mathematics or if more than 65% of them achieve the national standard in reading, writing and mathematics.

• Sufficient progress will be calculated using as a value-added measure from KS1 to KS2. The precise level of ‘sufficient progress’ will not be set until the first new KS2 tests are sat in summer 2016.

Floor Standards (Secondary)• A school will be below the floor standard if its Progress 8 score is below -

0.5, unless the confidence interval suggests that the school’s underlying performance may not be below average.

• Components of the progress 8 calculation rely upon an overview of the performance of the cohort. This cannot be obtained until after the data has been collected and validated (normally 3-5 months after the summer examinations)

Therefore the change is greater than just the lingo

• Progress, attainment and expectations– How is your school measuring progress given the changes

that will become a result of the new assessments?– How is your school going to benchmark itself against others

(in-year and following the results)?– How is your school responding to the change in standards?– How is your school going to adapt its assessment policy to

ensure that expectations are clearly articulated and are acted upon?

– How are you dealing with change (consider stakeholders, staff, students, parents, governors…)?

Whole Education: PASS

• Pupil Attitudes to Self and School trial• Involved several schools who have completed

the assessment and are working on what this tells them to provide intervention that supports development of wider issues

• Identifying barriers to learning and supporting an increased perception of what pupil’s really think it like being a part your school

Covering 9 attitudinal factors

• Feelings about School• Perceived Learning Capability Self Regard as a

learner • Preparedness for Learning • Attitudes to Teachers• General Work Ethic• Confidence in Learning• Attitudes to Attendance• Response to Curriculum Demands

Outcomes

• Early days, however the evidence provides information that can support schools in addressing areas that impact upon learning

• It is not collecting data, it is always the actions which are taken that make the difference!

Further information available in the fringe session delivered by Jonathan Thompson (St Pancras Room)

Phil BourneDirector of School and Academy Compliancehttps://www.schooldata.org.uk

“Indeed it’s fair to say that no teacher or department should be ignorant of the way some pupils with similar potential aren’t learning in some areas but are in others.”

Tim Brighouse, Jigsaw of a successful school, 2006