Week 5 Disruption

CS 292: Beyond the One Way Web

Matthew Jett Hall, Spring 2008http://beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com

Shell Global Scenarios OverviewBlogging Iran: Esfandiar ZafarWhat is Disruption? Impacted IndustriesChapter 4 Summary

CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com) 2

The Three Global Scenarios Low Trust Globalisation Open Doors Flags

How do these scenarios impact … IT Professional? … individuals? … governments?

Response To Technology Terrorism Bad Corporate Conduct

Generates Regulatory Compliance

▪ Accounting and Auditing (Logging)▪ E-Discovery (Preservation and Protocol)

State Censorship Increase in Security / Decrease in Trust

Blogging Drivers Rate of Growth

State of Blogging in IranMotivations Penetration Infrastructure used Limitations, Filtering

Sample blogs

6CS 292-1: Beyond the One Way Web (beyondtheonewayweb.wordpress.com)

“Low Cost” of online PublishingAnother medium of communicationLow cost of entryAs easy of writing an emailEnhanced by pictures and

podcastingAbility to commentAnd now mobile posting

Islamic republic in 1979

1980-88, Iran-Iraq War Isolated by sanctions Population

Doubled in under 30 yrs Large ex-pat community

Reformer: President Khatami ‘97 – ‘05

President Mahmud AHMADI-NEJAD ‘05 - Present

Source: google earth

Youth culture pushing the envelope Seeking a medium to self express Thirst for knowledge and information Lack of trust in government

Restrictions in social gatherings Religious Cultural

Restrictions in publishing and media

IR - 70,431,905 population - Country size: 1,648,195 sq km

Capital City: Tehran - population 7,185,831 ('07)

18,000,000 users as of Aug/07, 25.6% penetration, per ITU.

465,100 Broadband Internet connections as of Sept/07, per ITU

Source: http://www.internetworldstats.com/

Population2007 Est.

Usage 2000

UsageLatest Data

% Population

% of M.E.

7 YearUsage Growth

Iran 65,397,521

250,000 18,000,000

27.5% 53.7% 7,100.0%

Middle East

192,755,045

3,284,800

33,510,500

17.4% 100% 920.2%

Conclusions:

• Tremendous growth in Internet usage over 7 years• Substantial portion of total Internet adoption in Middle East• Amplifies the youth culture’s ability to

• challenge authority• access the world’s popular culture

Persian BlogBlogFaBlog SkyMihan BlogParsi Blog

www.wordpress.orgwww.youtube.com…

OpenNet Initiative

Most Restrictive Filtering China Iran

Detailed Report on Iran 2004-2005

Government and/or ISPs?

Persian Text reads:“Dear CustomerAccess to this site is not possible.”

Captured from a blog in Persian

Back of a bus seat in Tehran

Persian text reads “fast filter breaker”

Discussing gOS and Web 2.0

Persian blog entry on how to pass filters to access Google, Gmail, Blogfa

“The action of rending or bursting asunder; violent dissolution of continuity; forcible severance. “ (OED)

Out with the old, in with new!

Sources Social Change: Revolution Technical Innovation: Obsolescence

When an industry is disrupted It impacts that industry It impacts the suppliers of that industry It impacts the sellers of the products It impacts the people transporting the

products

Age Male Female Total 0-14 31,152,050 29,777,438 60,929,48815-64 100,995,752 101,365,035 202,360,78765+ 15,858,477 21,991,195 37,849,672Total 148,006,279 153,133,668 301,139,947

CIA World Factbook: July 2007

Home Broadband & Dial-Up Penetration (% of adult Americans)

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Broadband Dial Up

http://www.pewinternet.org/

Web 2.0

Notice emergence – late ‘04 / ‘05

Web 2.0

Learning and Dissemination Broadcast and Print Advertising Health Care Research Politics Shopping

How do you meet your reference needs?

How do you learn? Classroom? Recorded Lecture Live Lecture E-Learning Computer Based Training?

“A type of web page designed so that its content can be edited by anyone who accesses it, using a simplified markup language.” wiki, n." The Oxford English

Dictionary. 2nd ed. 1989. OED Online. Oxford University Press.

WIKIPEDIA

2001: Wiki Software and Web Server from a dude in St. Pete

Utilizes wiki social editing Donation supported Style and structure defined

by the contributor

“Our goal is to get to Britannica quality, or better.” Jimmy Wales, Founder

BRITANNICA

“December 1768, and the whole work was completed in 1771 in three volumes containing 2,391 pages, four folded leaves of unnumbered tables, and 160 copperplates”

Professional editors” Revenue model Style and structure

defined by the editorial process

Gold Standard for information quality

1974: The 15th edition was given a world point of view by more than 4,000 contributing authors from more than 100 countries. The editorial creation of the work cost $32 million exclusive of printing costs, representing the largest single private investment in publishing history up to that time.

“Encyclopædia Britannica." Encyclopædia Britannica. 2008. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. <http://search.eb.com/eb/article-2112>.

December 2005: Nature magazine “Internet encyclopaedias go head to head” by Jim Giles

42 entries examined “the average science entry in Wikipedia

contained around four inaccuracies; Britannica, about three.”

Date # ArticlesIncrease from Previous Year

1/1/2002 19,700 19,7001/1/2003 96,500 76,8001/1/2004 188,800 92,3001/1/2005 438,500 249,7001/1/2006 895,000 456,5001/1/2007 1,560,000 665,0001/1/2008 2,153,000 593,000

Compression of TimeCompression of DistanceModes of Learning

Live Lecture Recorded Lecture Interactive Seminar Asynchronous / Interactive

Question: Is Face to Face / Live Better?

Course Management SystemsTelepresenceMessages come to you, not to a desk

Anywhere Learning Technical Certifications CISSP, Network+, Security+

Instructor LedThrough web based conferencing

TRADITIONAL

Print Book Newspaper Magazines

Advertising Yellow Pages Print

Broadcast

DISRUPTION

Books Lulu.com Amazon kindle

Newspaper Blogs On-Line editions

Advertising Search engines Reduction in print readership Dispersion of readership to sites of

narrow, topical interest Broadcast

ABC, CBS, NBC Cable Cable YOUTUBE On-demand, digital distribution DVR What you want when you want it

Are newspapers dead?

HBO – The Wire Episode 53 Baltimore

“NAA is a nonprofit organization representing the $59 billion newspaper industry and more than 2,000 newspapers in the U.S. and Canada.” - naa.org

701 hits

It’s your work

You took someone and redirected their energy 701 times

They could have been reading the New York Times

They could have been watching CBS

Instead they were reading your blog!

Your blog --- 701 Hits as of 6 Feb 08 61

Problem – how do I reach micro-markets?

Banner AdsFlash AdsText Message AdsPaid placement in searchBlog topic related ads

Web 1.0 Electronic Medical Record CPOE Imaging and Diagnostics

Web 2.0 moves towards Personalized Evidenced based medicine On-demand

▪ access to clinical records for patient and physician▪ access to clinical data regarding procedure outcomes▪ access to clinical data regarding pharmacological

outcomes Error reduction and quality improvement Reduced Cycle Time

Personalized Medicine On-Demand 24 x 7 x

365 Physician & Patient

Messaging Yes privacy people --

that is my cholesterol

Distributed Computation SETI Cancer

Supercomputiing National Cyber Infrastructure Many

Disciplines Researchers data sets Scientific instrumentation

Personal Crusades Utah Taser Bad Cop News

Scandal Old School vs. 1.0

Campaigning

Old School – Rodney King

New School – Utah Taser Guy

This author really loves the po-po

Monica Lewinsky+

Bill Clinton+

HTTP+ TCP/IP=

Major Scandal Spark

June 17, 1972 Watergate Hotel Break In Presidents Reporters Large Papers Even a movie

about the reporters!

Youtube DebatesQuestion directly from the

population

Amazon.com rating systems

Netflix Reviews

It’s nice to know what others experienced before you buy your products!

Based upon your ratings, systems can now recommend things to you.

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