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Disaster risk reduction as a pillar of a national adaptation strategy: experience of Project NOAH, Philippines
Carlo Arcilla and Mahar Lagmay
National Institute of Geological Sciences
University of the Philippines
Civilizations exist,
with geologic consent.
(Will Durant)
Disasters in the Philippines – one of the most vulnerable worldwide• Typhoons
• Floods
• Storm Surges
• Landslides
• Earthquakes
• Tsunamis
• Volcanic eruptions
• Politicians
EQUATOR
TECTONIC AND GEOGRAPHIC SETTINGS OF THE PHILIPPINES
Most of the disasters that have caused most life loss in recent years were extreme-rainfall related
• Guinsaugon landslide Typhoon Pablo
• Typhoon Haiyan (storm surge)
• Typhoon Reming
• Typhoon Frank
• Typhoon Milenyo
• Typhoon Ondoy
• Typhoon Pepeng
• Habagat
Tropical Cyclones• 20 Typhoons enter
Philippines annually on average (most worldwide)• Metro Manila is actually
protected from TCs
• Sep, Oct riskiest months
• Fewer TCs in Nov and Dec but appear further south• More likely to hit land
110E 120E 130E 140E
5N
15N
25N
35N
0
1
2
3
4
Source: Dr. Eman Anglo
Last week: Typhoon Nepartak
Devastation of aquifers from super typhoon Haiyan’s storm surge
M. Bayani Cardenas, Philip C. Bennett, Peter B. Zamora, Kevin M. Befus(Matt Kaufman and Aaron Packman)
Dept. of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin
Raymond S. Rodolfo*, Hillel B. Cabria, and Mark R. LapusRidge to Reef Solutions, Inc., Philippines and *Ateneo de Manila Univ.
Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan)
Study Site
Simulation and animation courtesy of Maarten van Ormondt
San Antonio
Simulation and animation courtesy of Maarten van Ormondt
Nov. 1912 (4.6-9.1 m surge)
Oct. 1897 (0.4-7.3 m surge, 1,200-1,300 dead, churches destroyed)
Photo: Boston.com
TRMM, NASA
http://www.boston.com
http://www.boston.com
http://www.boston.com
http://www.boston.com
http://www.boston.com
Crowdsourcing before it was famous
Massive debris flows triggered by Typhoon Pablo
(Bopha) on December 4, 2012 in New Bataan,
Compostela ValleyAlfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay1,2, Rodrigo Narod C.
Eco1,2, Jenalyn A. Alconis1, Mary Joy K. Gonzales1, Likha G. Minimo2, Tatum Miko L. Herrero2, Jerico E. Mendoza
1Eric C. Colmenares3, Ryanne Wayne H. Serrado2, Joy T. Santiago1, Kelvin S. Rodolfo4
(Mathias Jacob, 2005)
1.5 m
7.5-9 m
DOST Project NOAH
Project NOAH
• Nationwide Operational Assessmentof Hazards
• Latest government program to address the disaster problem in the Philippines
• Use of Science and cutting edge technology for furture resilience
• Turned 4 years old this month, saved THOUSANDS of lives already
DOST PROGRAMS UNDER THE NOAH PROGRAM
Project NOAH
DREAM-LIDAR FloodNETHydroMet Sensors
Development
Hazard InformationMedia
Doppler System Development
Storm SurgeLandslides and Geohazards
HydroMet SensorsDevelopmentDREAM-LIDARFloodNETHazard Information
MediaLandslides
and GeohazardsDoppler System
DevelopmentCoastal Erosion
and Storm Surge
DOST-Project NOAH launch6 July 2012
1500+
sensors
AWS
ARG
AWLS
1500+
sensors
AWS
ARG
AWLS
714 sensors
AWS
ARG
AWLS
Important: RAIN rate! (measured by Doppler radar and verified by on-land sensor)!
Tropical Storm Gorio
LIDAR• 300 km2 per day• 17 out of the 18
major riverbasins have Lidar mapped floodplains
(Image from USGS website)
LIDAR Unit
2m Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
1m Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
50cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
25cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
Compostela Municipality Town Proper
Compostela Municipality Town Proper
Community scale maps, development planning, emergency planning, identifying blocked access routes, evacuation routes, safe a
Safe relocation site
Safe relocation site
Safe relocation site
Safe relocation site
• Future flood hazard based on a 100 year rain return flood scenario is high
Safe relocation site
• Projected flood level: up to 3 meters from the bottom of the river and nearby areas up to 2.5 meters.
Safe relocation site
Success story
• Provided two warnings several hours in advance of incoming Habagatfloods
• 1007 mm of rain August 6-8, 2012
• Zero casualties in Marikina
Lagmay et al., 2013
TY Pablo
Real-time information
Department of Science and TechnologyNationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards
DOPPLER RADAR
Yolanda Doppler Radar image as it traverses the central Philippines region
High-resolution Hazard MapsFlood, Landslide and Storm Surge Hazard Maps simulated over Lidar and IfSAR topography
Lidar
Community scale maps, development planning, emergency planning, identifying blocked access routes, evacuation routes, safe a
Safe Areas: 36.87%
NOAH Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge Hazard MapOrmoc City, Leyte
From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge hazards
Safe Areas: 41.04%
NOAH Landslide & Flood Hazard MapKananga, Leyte
From Landslide and Flood hazards
NOAH Landslide, Flood & Storm Surge Hazard MapTacloban, Leyte
Safe Areas: 26%
TACLOBAN AREA – 106 SQ KMLANDSLIDE AREA – 50.2 SQ KMFLOOD AREA – 23.4 SQ KMSTORM SURGE AREA – 10.8 SQ KMTOTAL HAZARD AREA – 78.4 SQ KM
From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge hazards
Real time information and High-Resolution Hazard maps are used to save lives• Real-time information are used to provide hours in advance warning
• High Resolution maps are used to inform people where to safely go when there’s a warning
AVOIDING DISASTERS
NOAH success stories• Real-time information are used for warning hours in advance to complement
days in advance weather forecast models
• Hazard maps are used as reference to move to a “safe” place.
Latest averted disasters• Typhoon Lando (Koppu) and Nona (Melor) extreme flood events
• Debris flows in Nueva Ecija and massive floods in Central Luzon
Source: Interaksyon
Highly successful predictions = 0 deaths but no news!• Good news is rarely news
There are some natural disasters that one just steps aside and are avoided, which is part of adaptation!• E.g., how do you “adapt” to a debris flows?
NOAH Data could check corruption!
Source: DPWH report - Flood management master plan for Metro Manila
and surrounding areas
MORE ACCURATE DEPICTION OF FLOODS IN THE METROPOLIS TO REALLY KNOW THE PROBLEM
NOAH Partial list of awards
1. 2012 New Media digital heroes award2. 2012 Cyberpress best IT product of the year (NOAH app)3. 2013 Best Telecom Project in the recently 16th Telecom Asia Awards
(NOAH app)4. 2013 Future Gov Award (NOAH app)5. 2014 UN World Summit Award (WSA) for best mobile app for m-inclusion
and empowerment (ARKO app)6. 2015 International ICT award for Best Philippine Mobile App of the Year
(ARKO app)7. 2015 PCIEERD Outstanding Research and Development Award (ClimateX) 8. 2015 Manuel L. Quezon Gawad Parangal Award (Proj. NOAH)
Local and International News
Local and International News
Cost of Project NOAH USD$ 40 MILLION!
• Filipino scientists trained in best universities developed local technology and determined only what was needed to be imported
• Dr. Mahar Lagmay (PhD Cambridge) – won European Geosciences Union Plinius medal award for disaster research in 2015
• Dr. CP David (PhD Stanford) developed rain-related disaster research
• Dr. Eric Paringit led LIDAR data acquisition
• Dr. Dennis Villorente led Filipino scientists who developed sensors and all data streamed into the INTERNET.
• We were doing crowdsourcing before it was popular
• NOAH accessible by mobile phone, apps, internet and distributed to local government units
noah.dost.gov.ph
• Mobile app ARKO shows hazard maps (won international award)
Important to tailor-make disaster resilience programs to local geologic and meteorological conditions• Ask help from experts who have extensive local data and are NOT
selling any programs/tools – even in disasters, we need transparency and truth in advertising!
• Satellite-based systems are great, but on-land sensors, detailed topography for flood and landslide and flood modelling, etc. are needed
• Collaborate with TELCOS to have data streamed into INTERNET and focused into vulnerable areas
Take Home Points
• Importance of local, highly trained scientists who can direct and select technologies to employ re disaster reduction
• Packaged disaster programs may not work unless thoroughly informed by local realities
• Detailed topographical survey, (e.g., LIDAR) absolutely important• Satellite data very important, but not enough• Extreme rainfall is a killer due to landslides, floods, debris flows – Doppler
radar and interpretation important• On-land sensors, along with satellite, and Doppler streamed through NET,
to have ON-TIME WARNING SYSTEMS• Important of two-way information between LGU and warning agencies –
cooperation of TELCOS very important (information via cell tower network)
Thank you!We can share our experience – caloy.arcilla@gmail.com
Bonus: Disaster data Can be used for resilienceMainstreaming CCA-DRR in communities for future resilience
• Save lives
• Comprehensive development plans / land–use plans
• Food security
Not all ricefields get flooded
Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and its
negative consequences.
Risk = f (Hazard , Exposure , Vulnerability
Disaster Risk Assessment
, Capacity)
HAZARD DATA PREPARATION/CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS
1. Preparation of High Resolution Imagery and setting-up of GIS tools.
2. Digitization of existing land use data.
3. Data validation.
EXPOSURE(Land Use)
DATAGATHERING
ANDPROCESSING
AERIAL IMAGE
DIGITIZATION OF LAND USE DATA
- ROAD
- COMMERCIAL
- RESIDENTIAL
- AGRICULTURE
- OPEN SPACE
- INSTITUTIONAL
- Etc.
ROAD
COMMERCIAL
RESIDENTIAL
AGRICULTURE
OPEN SPACE
INSTITUTIONAL
EXISTING LAND USE
FINAL OUTPUT
1. Urban Use
2. Natural Resource Production
3. Critical Point Facilities
4. Lifeline Utilities
5. Population
LAND USE EXPOSURE DATA PREPARATION
RISK ANALYSIS
Urban UseNatural Resource
Production Critical Point FacilitiesLifeline Utilities Population
Risk = severity of consequence x likelihood of occurrence
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