Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine

Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage

Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LATelephone +44 (0)131 650 0270 www.sccs.org.uk

Scotland centred energy 2030

Building a vision for Scotland’s energy future

12 March 2014, ECCI

Stuart HASZELDINE University of Edinburgh

2Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Storyline

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

Context -42% carbon by 2020 - 60% by 2030- 90% carbon by 2050 (ref 1990 base)

• All regions make extensive use of their regional renewables potential

• Electricity is exchanged through the country

• Pumped storage is exploited

• Electricity import – minimal

• Electricity export - encouraged

3Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Climate and unburnable carbon

“Cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature response areapproximately linearly related”IPCC 2013 AR5 WG1

now

Emission reduction2050 limit for 2 C50% confidence

No action2100 limit for > 8 C50% confidence

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

TOTAL emissions of fossil carbon have to be containedNot just the rate of emission : CCS, RES, Efficiency buy time

Industry needs CCS. Unburnable carbon V hydrocarbon production

4Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

http://www.sccs.org.uk/news/2013/IndustrialCO2SourceClustersInScotland.pdf

NOT just electricityEnergy USE

Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED

Scotland is a hydrocarbon use

economy

SCCS 2011

10 Mt CO2 “saved by Res electricity” 2012 (simple calc. )

10

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Scotland extracts hydrocarbons

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

NOT just electricityEnergy USE

Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8

Energy Study 2006 TWhr

Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total

Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006

6Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Scotland energy use = electric + heat

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8

TOTAL energy use = electric + heat + transport + industry + …. 166 TWHr / yr 2006

7Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Vision : energy demand

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

Other carbon emissions

Heat

2014 demand 2030 demand

Heat

Power Power

Industry

Travel

Industry

Land 20%

Planes &

ships

Renewables and CCS

CCS ONLY

TravelEfficiency, gas, electric

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Vision : energy supply 2030

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

2030 Wind – onshore 20 TW hr

(+ 20 TWhr offshore)(Tide 2 TWhr /yr)

(Wave 1 TWhr / yr)Gas + (coal ?)

biomass + CCS Petrochemical + CCS

Insulation & efficiency Traded sector ? Imports

W

W

WW

Iceland ?

England ?Europe ?

Norway ?Denmark ?

Scotland

CCS

CCS

CCS

Demand 2006 165 TW hr / yr

Demand 2009 143 TWhr /yr

Demand 2030 150 – 200 TW hr/yr

FF

FIFF

Oil & gasCO2-EORCO2

Price power, heat Build rates

Transmission charges

WW

Close coal & gas genrn ?Close North Sea extract ?

Industry + CCS ?

Wind + TideForestryIndustryCCS on fossil

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Discussion

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance changeand unburnable carbon

10Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

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Discussion

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance changeand unburnable carbon

12s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

BP Energy Outlook 2014

BaU =

DO Nothing

= DO Sustainable

Developing economiesBRIC, MINT

“ us “

Carbon not planning to decrease

13Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Scotland is a hydrocarbon economy

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

NOT just electricityEnergy USE

Energy produced and EXPORTED

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8

Energy Study 2006 TWhr

Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total

Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006

14s.haszeldine@ed.ac.ukwww.sccs.org.uk

90% CO2 reduction on site75% along whole chain

What does CCS look like ?

expensive

uncertain

FINANCE

15s.haszeldine@ed.ac.uk Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Depth 1 - 4 kmImpermeable SEALOverlies Porous RESERVOIR

CO2 storage is a long way down

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STATE of CCS – REAL new projects

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

Zero Emission Power (Europe trade organisation)

12 full sized projects by 2012

EEPR 1 Billion x 6 projects

IEA International Energy Agency

100 projects by 2020 Power AND Industry

= Two (0) by 2020

= ZERO (1)

= ONE (3)

UK (small, EU edge)2005, 2007, 2012CO2 inject 2019£ 1 Bn Prize

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Does UK Govt WANT CCS ??

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

“low cost” = high nuclear

2050 Calculator Carbon and energy : default exampleLlllll

n

“carbon and bio ”= high fossil and carbon capture

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Scottish fossil energy extraction

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

Conventional Oil + gas 2014 - 2050

CO2 –EOR 2020 – 2035

Shale oil2020 – 2035

Shale gas2020 – 2060

Underground coal gas 2020 - 2200

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Making it happen

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

PROBLEM Tax N Sea ≠ Spend on CCS

SOLUTION• Divert oil tax to green energy

• Extraction tax, to incentivise storage of carbon

Oil, coal, shale tax

“roads, hospitals and schools”

Green clean

2 x CCS project

now

future ?

20Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Avoiding a carbon bubble1 tonne CO2 out = 1 tonne CO2 in

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.ukMore fossil carbon extraction, faster ≠ Mitigation later ….

21Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

• 2000 – 4,000 DIRECT jobs in Scottish industry, 250,000 offshore10,000 in Renewables

• Industry process emissions can not be displaced – must be captured

• Should h/c resource be left in the ground ? Very unlikely to change an EU / UK oil/gas price

• Scotland has lots of oil. And coal, shale oil, shale gas• Developing CCS requires synergy – to build pipes and storage

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INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

Keeping C intensive industry – needs CO2 cleanup

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Creating a low carbon industry zone

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

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Renewables are goodBut not large enough – heroic effort possible

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

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All electricity – by fuel

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

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Summary

Stuart.Haszeldine@ed.ac.uk

• Electricity is a small part of energy. Include HEAT, INDUSTRY

• Is carbon, or money more dominant ?

• Security of supply – renewables PLUS storage, or INFILL

• Economics of transmission charging – Scotland centric

• Mixed generation – windpower on best sites- balancing carbon extraction

Trees for fuel- baseload flexible

generation – with CCS-

• Aim beyond 2030 – to 2050, …… 3,100 AD