VoteWatch post-elections analysis

The new EP balance of power: policy implications for next five years

Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder, VoteWatch Europe

How did Europe vote… and what does it mean for EU policy?The Microsoft Centre, Brussels, 26 May 2014

What impact on EP positions (and EU policy)?

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Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy

Main outcome

• Less support for strengthening the EU powers (institutions, agencies, budget);

• but a strong pro-European majority (‘super-grand’ coalition) stays on.

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Possible coalitions (%)

Old EP New EP Difference

EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.5 -8.7EPP + S&D 61.4 53.1 -8.2

Old EP New EP Difference

EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 16.2 +7.9ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 22.5 +6.7(ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 29.6 +9.2

PRO

ANTI

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Possible coalitions (%)

Centre-right

Centre-left

Old EP New EP Difference

EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.7 -7.9EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 45.0 -9.0

Old EP New EP Difference

S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 38.7 +1.2(S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 49.1 +0.7

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Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy

Possible scenarios

Economy

• Less budget consolidation• More public spending• Push for tax harmonization?• More regulation of the financial sector

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Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy

Possible scenarios

Employment

• More social indicators followed through the European Semester

• Push for re-correlation of salaries with inflation rather than productivity

• Regulations more labour-oriented (working time and work conditions)

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Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy

Possible scenarios

Trade and internal market

• Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP

• More questioning of the strengthening of internal market for services

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Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy

Possible scenarios

Energy

• Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role

• Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority likely positive

• Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure

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Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy

Possible scenarios

Environment

• Step-by-step approach towards C02 reduction and climate targets?

• Re-industrialization? Uncertain

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Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy

Possible scenarios

Civil liberties

• More barriers to migration?

Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founderdoru@votewatcheurope.eu

www.votewatch.eu@VoteWatchEurope/VoteWatchEurope