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BIG DESIGN: HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE NEED TO MANUFACTURE
PATRICK KALAHER VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY
frog
BIG DESIGN: HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE NEED TO MANUFACTURE
PATRICK KALAHER VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY
frog
As products, buildings, and infrastructure get smarter, more connected, and data-rich, design must expand from a singular focus on discrete things and structures towards the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent, and interdependent systems. This talk will showcase what frog sees as the emerging conceptual architecture of Big Design, and give examples of how this is changing what, and how, we make things.
TODAY
2
“We need to shrink our PDLC from 7 years to 3 years.”
— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
3
WE SHRUNK THE PDLC, BUT THE CUSTOMER ISN’T BUYING MICROSCOPES ANYMORE.
OH MY
4
OH MY
SCIENTISTS WANT TO ANALYZE IMAGES OF CELLS.
5
OH MY
IMAGE ACQUISITION & MANIPULATION
STORAGE COLLABORATION SOFTWARE TO AID IN ANALYSIS & WORKFLOW
6
OH MY
“YOU’RE ACTUALLY IN THE IMAGING SYSTEMS BUSINESS NOW.”
ALONG WITH DOZENS OF OTHER COMPANIES.
7
SO, WHAT’S IT GOING TO TAKE TO BE GOOD AT THIS?
“What do you mean there’s no such thing as Zero Defect software?”
— EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING COMPANY
9
As products, buildings, and infrastructure get smarter, more connected and data-rich, design must expand from a singular focus on discrete things and structures towards the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent, and interdependent context—where things, services, people, and places are always already connected in direct and oblique ways.
Big Design uses design and engineering to shape connected, intelligent systems that bridge the human, enterprise, and urban—or even planetary— scale.
SHIFT OF VALUE TO THE SYSTEM, AWAY FROM THE DEVICE
INFRASTRUCTURE
ENTERPRISE
PERSONALHUMAN SCALE
DISCRETE LINKED, LAYERED
WEARABLE
MOBILE
DEVICE
CAR
BUILDING
COMPLEX
DISTRICT
CITY
REGION
PLANETURBAN SCALE
10
11
11
13
MUCH MORE ABOUT THIS LATER
14
TOTAL RUBBISH?
15
TOTAL RUBBISH?
15
TOTAL RUBBISH?
MEET BRUNO. FIXES PROBLEMS YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU HAD. CREATES NEW ONES.
15
TOTAL RUBBISH?
MEET BRUNO. FIXES PROBLEMS YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU HAD. CREATES NEW ONES.
15
DUMB RUBBISH?
16
SMARTBELLY, BIGBELLY SOLAR
SMART RUBBISH?
17
IT’S A SERIES OF PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS
18
Waste CollectionServices
Composting
Recycling
Other ProcessingActivities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal
Waste Recovery
BIGBELLY“BigBelly uses solar power for 100% of its energy needs for trash compacting. The unit takes up as much space as the "footprint" of an ordinary receptacle—but its capacity is five times greater. Increased capacity reduces collection trips and can cut fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions by 80%.”
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste CollectionServices
Composting
Recycling
Other ProcessingActivities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal
Waste Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE MUCH BETTER IN ORDER TO BE WORTH DOING
BIGBELLY“BigBelly uses solar power for 100% of its energy needs for trash compacting. The unit takes up as much space as the "footprint" of an ordinary receptacle—but its capacity is five times greater. Increased capacity reduces collection trips and can cut fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions by 80%.”
COST
EFFICIENCY
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste CollectionServices
Composting
Recycling
Other ProcessingActivities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal
Waste Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE MUCH BETTER IN ORDER TO BE WORTH DOING
BIGBELLY“BigBelly uses solar power for 100% of its energy needs for trash compacting. The unit takes up as much space as the "footprint" of an ordinary receptacle—but its capacity is five times greater. Increased capacity reduces collection trips and can cut fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions by 80%.”
COST
MANUFACTURING COMPLEXITY
DESIGNCOMPLEXITY
DESIGNCOMPLEXITY
OPERATIONALCOMPLEXITY
COST
EFFICIENCY
www.bigbelly.com 19
Waste CollectionServices
Composting
Recycling
Other ProcessingActivities
Production
SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal
Waste Recovery
IT’S GOT TO BE MUCH BETTER IN ORDER TO BE WORTH DOING
OH MY
“YOU’RE ACTUALLY IN THE BIG DESIGN BUSINESS NOW.”
ALONG WITH EVERYONE ELSE IN MANUFACTURING.
20
SO, WHAT’S IT GOING TO TAKE TO BE GOOD AT THIS?
22
DESIGN PRINCIPLES
ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
22
DESIGN PRINCIPLES
ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
23
1.
24
DESIGN PRINCIPLES
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
2.
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
3.
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
“Von Neumann had one piece of advice for us: not to originate anything.” This helped put the IAS project in the lead. “One of the reasons our group was successful, and got a big jump on others, was that we set up certain limited objectives, namely that we would not produce any new elementary components.” adds Bigelow.
“We would try and use the ones which were available for standard communications purposes. We chose vacuum tubes which were in mass production, and very common types, so that we could hope to get reliable components, and not have to go into component research.”
DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
25
DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
26Source: Nascent Objects
DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
26Source: Nascent Objects
DESIGN PRINCIPLES: DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
Source: Nascent Objects 27
COST
MANUFACTURING COMPLEXITY
DESIGNCOMPLEXITY
DESIGN PRINCIPLES: HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
28
MORAVEC’S PARADOX“The hard problems are easy, the easy problems are hard.” —Stephen Pinker
POLANYI’S PARADOX“The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in Motorcar Theory.”
www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series
Physical
Self Monitoring and Regulation‘Robot Farming’
Human InvolvementCognitive/Physical Workload
Remote Monitoring and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental Work-Managing Robots/Machines
High Percentage of PhysicalLabor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1
29www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series
DESIGN PRINCIPLES: HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
MORAVEC’S PARADOX“The hard problems are easy, the easy problems are hard.” —Stephen Pinker
POLANYI’S PARADOX“The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in Motorcar Theory.”
Physical
Self Monitoring and Regulation‘Robot Farming’
Human InvolvementCognitive/Physical Workload
Remote Monitoring and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental Work-Managing Robots/Machines
High Percentage of PhysicalLabor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1
Physical
Self Monitoring and Regulation‘Robot Farming’
Human InvolvementCognitive/Physical Workload
Remote Monitoring and Controlling
Non-Creative Mental Work-Managing Robots/Machines
High Percentage of PhysicalLabor
Cognitive
3
6
n Future
Tomorrow
Today
80s
60s<1
1
30
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
DESIGN PRINCIPLES
ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
32
ARCHITECTURE
1.
THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF BIG DESIGN
2.
DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED
3.
RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
33
BIG DESIGN AT THREE SCALES
UNIT SCALE Constrained systems for specialized needs; constrained by compute, network, or power capabilities.
• System on Chip • Wireless Sensors • Energy Harvesting
LOCAL SCALE Edge compute systems for real time needs; general purpose computing platforms.
• Operating Systems • Autonomous Vehicles • Smartphones • Network Appliances
PLANETARY SCALE Redundant, parallel compute systems ideally suited for parallel processing and distributed storage needs; Big Data.
• Hadoop • Data Centers • Virtualization
34
Source: The Opte Project
SMALL PIECES, SOMETIMES SCALE-FREE
“What the Web has done to documents it is doing to just about every institution it touches. The Web isn't primarily about replacing atoms with bits so that we can, for example, shop online or make our supply chains more efficient…Rather, the Web is changing our understanding of what puts things together in the first place. We live in a world that works well if the pieces are stable and have predictable effects on one another. We think of complex institutions and organizations as being like well-oiled machines that work reliably and almost serenely so long as their subordinate pieces perform their designated tasks. Then we go on the Web, and the pieces are so loosely joined that frequently the links don't work; all too often we get the message “404!”
But, that's ok because the Web gets its value not from the smoothness of its overall operation but from its abundance of small nuggets that point to more small nuggets.”
35
“The Internet consists of Small Pieces, Loosely Joined.”— DAVID WEINBERGER
35
SMALL PIECES, JOINED LIKE THE INTERNET
36Source: frog
eg:FitbitNike +SmartthingsTwine
eg:SmartphonesiPadsNest
Device Complexity and Cost
Rel
ativ
e N
umbe
r of
Uni
ts (
Log)
COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE
37Source: frog
Dead Zone
eg:FitbitNike +SmartthingsTwine
eg:SmartphonesiPadsNest
Device Complexity and Cost
Rel
ativ
e N
umbe
r of
Uni
ts (
Log)
COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE
37Source: frog
Device Profitability
Dead Zone
— RICHARD TYSON
“Big Design is about a shift of value to the system, from the device.”
38
($5)
39
COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE
Source: DLB Associates
($7B)
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF BIG DESIGN
DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED
RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
DESIGN PRINCIPLES
ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
41
42
SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY
1.
DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN
2.
DESIGN FOR FAILURE
3.
DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS
YOU’RE ONLY AS GOOD AS YOUR WORST DESIGN DECISION
www.arstechnica.com 44
REMOTELINK DATA An example of decrypted RemoteLink data captured by OwnStar, from Kamkar's DefCon presentation.
NO MATTER WHAT, IT WILL BE HACKED
45
There have been an increasing number of safety critical hacks of production vehicles. This one resulted in more than 1 Million Jeeps being recalled.
“Hackers remotely kill a Jeep on the highway.”
— ANDY GREENBERG
Source: Wired
INDUSTRY STANDARD ATTACK SURFACES
46Source: Sean Gallagher / www.arstechnica.com
47
47
“An escalator can never break: it can only become stairs.”
— MITCH HEDBERG
BEWARE FAT TAILS
1. Disproportionate Role 2. Non-Computability 3. Psychological Biases 4. Things keep getting weirder
48Source: Wikipedia / Cauchy Distribution
FAT TAILS HAPPEN EVERY DAY
49Source: Internet
FAT TAILS HAPPEN EVERY DAY
49Source: Internet
THE WORLD IS GETTING WEIRDER
50
DESPITE BILLIONS SPENT ON SAFETY AND SECURITY, THERE REALLY IS NO WAY TO STOP A PILOT FROM INTENTIONALLY CRASHING A PLANE.
50Source: stevecoast.com
THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN
DESIGN FOR FAILURE
DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
DESIGN PRINCIPLES
ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
52
53
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
1.
DON’T JUST MAKE THINGS
2.
CREATE ANCHOR POINTS
3.
ORGANIZE FOR EXPERIENCE
DON’T JUST MAKE THINGS
54
Previous Products
Market/Customersays...
SortingWe think...
SortingNo ExistingMarket
SortingCan we?Should we?
SortingWe should make a thing
SortingThe MarketIndicates
CREATE EXPERIENCES
55
People have been doing...
Experimentsto understandbehavior...
These thingsexist
Learning
Adapting
Networksfeel...
SortingWe could be...
CREATE EXPERIENCES
56
BUILDING NEW PRODUCTS & SERVICES What needs and desires are we trying to address?
UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIESWhat do we need to understand and when? How do we react?
New products and services create new behaviors
A better understanding of needs and desires can validate decisions
ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON
57Source: GE
58
— OPERATIONS MANAGER, MAJOR CITY TRANSIT
“Before CNG in a Box, it took all night to fuel my busses. And sometimes it didn’t work.”
CNG in a Box
59
ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON
CNG in a Box
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON
CNG in a BoxInterfaces
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON
CNG in a BoxInterfaces
Services
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON
CNG in a BoxInterfaces Distribution
Services
Schedules
59
ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON
HEADLINE
LOREM IPSUM DOLOR SIT AMET, CONSECTETUR ADIPISICING ELIT, SED DO EIUSMOD TEMPOR
60
ANCHOR POINTS FOR CONNECTED EXPERIENCES
60
HEADLINE
LOREM IPSUM DOLOR SIT AMET, CONSECTETUR ADIPISICING ELIT, SED DO EIUSMOD TEMPOR
60
ANCHOR POINTS FOR CONNECTED EXPERIENCES
60
IOT ExperienceInterfaces Distribution
Services
Schedules
61
ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON
ORGANIZED FOR EXPERIENCE?
Which company is better organized to create the best experiences? Who can introduce new services and products, or pivot quickly to change existing ones?
62Source: Internet Meme
ORGANIZED FOR EXPERIENCE?
“Schiller’s Marketing function includes product marketing by product line, but these are not business ownership roles…there is no “head of devices” or “head of iPhone”…Product is a “horizontal” responsibility for which every function is partially responsible.”
“When seen in this light, the first observation is that there is no ‘product business’ ownership.”
—HORACE DEDIU, ASYMCO
CEO
HR Marketing - Schiller
Design - Ive
Technologies - Mansfield
Internet SW-Cue
Operations
HW Engineering -Riccio
Legal
NA Sales
Int. Sales
Communications
Retail
Finance -Oppenheimer
SW Engineering -Federighi
SUSTAIN
DISRUPT
63Source: asymco.com
DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN
THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN FOR FAILURE
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN
THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF BIG DESIGN
INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE
DESIGN FOR FAILURE
DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY
DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED
DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS
HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
DON’T JUST MAKE THINGS
CREATE ANCHOR POINTS
ORGANIZE FOR EXPERIENCE
frog is a company of Aricent © 2015 frog design inc.
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