View
271
Download
1
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
Urbanization and the WEF Nexus in Asia
Dr. Cecilia Tortajada
Senior Research Fellow
Institute of Water Policy
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS
The Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Asia
Singapore International Energy Week 2014
30 October 2014
An urbanized world
- 54% of the world population live in urban areas generating more than 80%
of global GDP (60% natural growth, 40% migration)
- 3.9 billion people: about half in settlements of less than 500,000 people
and one in eight live in 28 megacities with more than 10 million people.
- The most urbanized regions are North America (82%), Latin American and
the Caribbean (80%) and Europe (73%).
- Africa and Asia remain mostly rural but are urbanizing faster than any
other regions. Both are projected to become 56% and 64% urban,
respectively, by 2050.
UN, 2014, World Urbanization Prospects 2014 revision.
An urbanized world
- Continuing population growth and urbanization are projected to
add 2.5 billion people to the world’s urban population by 2050,
with nearly 90% of this increase concentrated in Asia and Africa.
- India, China and Nigeria are expected to account for 37% of the
projected growth of the world’s urban population between 2014
and 2050.
UN, 2014, World Urbanization Prospects 2014 revision.
Megacities
Tokyo is the world’s largest city with an agglomeration of 38 million inhabitants.
It is followed by Delhi with 25 million, Shanghai with 23 million, and Mexico City,
Mumbai and São Paulo, each with around 21 million inhabitants.
By 2030, the world is projected to have 41 megacities with more than 10 million
inhabitants. Tokyo is projected to remain the world’s largest city in 2030 with 37
million inhabitants, followed by Delhi (36 million).
Large cities are concentrated in the global South. The fastest growing urban
agglomerations are medium-sized cities and cities with less than 1 million
inhabitants located in Asia and Africa, not megacities.
Asia
The population of Asia and the Pacific will increase from 3.9 billion in
2010 to 4.6 billion in 2035
The most populated country is China with an estimated population
1.35 billion people. Population is projected to peak in 2025 and then
gradually decline.
India’s population is likely to exceed that of China around 2020 and
reach 1.6 billion in 2035.
The PRC and India will account for 64.5% of the region’s total
population in 2035.
Both countries are projected to contribute with more than one third of
the global urban population increase between 2014 and 2050.
ADB Asia Energy Outlook 2014
Why the interest on the water-energy-food nexus in urban areas?
Cities are engines of the economy, places of innovation, connectivity and
innovation as well as services (Cities of Tomorrow)
Create a resilient and inclusive economy with larger populations living in mostly
space-constraint areas where boundaries go beyond the economic, physical,
social, cultural and environmental reality of urban development
Provision of services & quality of life – natural resources that are polluted,
over-exploited, mismanaged and misgoverned
Components of the natural environment are interwoven with those of the
economic, social, cultural and political systems.
Photo: Dr. Olli Varis
The interest on the water-energy-food nexus in urban areas?
Close attention on the relationship between the broader economy and energy
(and thus water because it will be the water available what will determine
energy and food alternatives).
Water security, energy security, food security
(resource use policies, governance, efficiecy, technology, habits)
Infrastructure deficit
ADB estimates that from 2010 to 2020 investments needs for infrastructure
development in the region will be approximately $8 trillion (some 68% for new
capacity investments and 32% to maintain and replace existing infrastructure).
Annual investment needs will reach an approximate $730 billion for the water
and sanitation, energy, telecommunication and transport sectors.
Agriculture
Agriculture has to meet the demand of growing populations projected to
become more urban: more food will be demanded by a population of net food
buyers and food demand will be met by rural and peri-urban areas as well as
food imports.
Agricultural production will be affected by the “expanding cities’ substantial
thirst” for water
Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction, OECD Publishing, Paris
Global water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and 2050
Source: International Water Management Institute, 2000, Water Scarcity, Fact or Fiction?
Source: Fischett, M., 2011, How to Double Global Food Production by 2050 and
Reduce Environmental Damage, Scientific American
Water and Energy
Energy demand growing steadily. Expected to increase by 83% between 2011
and 2035 (549 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2011 to 1004 Mtoe in 2035)
Energy production in 2010, water withdrawals were approximately 580 billion
cubic metres of which 70 bcm were consumed (U.S., each kilowatt-hour of
electricity requires about 95 litres of water)
2-3% of world energy consumption is used to pump and treat water for urban
residents and industry.
Source: ENERDATA. Global energy balance 2013 Analysis
G20: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan,
Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom,
United States and the European Union)
12,914 13,395 13,246
7,896 8,438 8,404
2,633 2,944
3,298
605 641 684
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2009 2010 2011
kW
h p
er
cap
ita
United States Singapore China India
ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION
Source: World Bank,
Source: Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific (2013). Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Asian Development Bank
Estimation of Fossil Fuel Savings Potential in the Alternative Case
IGCC = integrated gasification combined cycle, IGFC = integrated gasification fuel cell, MACC = more advanced
combined cycle, PV = photovoltaic.
New York City Pilot Study by Brookhaven National Laboratory
Determine the key energy-water planning issues for an
urban area - New York City
Develop and apply an integrated energy-water decision-support
tool to facilitate urban energy-water planning (water-efficient appliances; water
supply systems; wastewater treatment)
Challenges (regulatory/policy issues, data, necessary tools, programmatic
issues, etc.)
Development and application of tools and methods
Reference Energy System
Resources: Natural gas, refined oil products, electricity imports
Generation
Transmission and distribution (electricity)
Location
Use:
Lighting
Air conditioning
Space heating
Building miscellaneous
Transportation
Energy demands: water and wastewater systems, transportation, commercial,
Industrial, residential.
Inefficient, old buildings
Increased energy demands for water and wastewater treatment
and transportation
Emissions and climate change
Energy generation:
Aging power plants
Barriers to build new power plants
Emissions and climate change
Energy delivery:
Upgrading infrastructure for electricity, gas and steam delivery
Meeting peak demands
Transmission lines siting and installations
Singapore - Budget 2013
Energy-Efficiency
$40.4 million will be set aside to fund energy efficiency programmes.
Energy Conservation Act (ECA)
Mandatory energy management practices for large energy users stipulated
under the ECA will be implemented on 1 April 2013. NEA will launch a one-
stop Energy Efficiency Promotion Centre (EEPC) to assist and advise
companies in meeting mandatory requirements and to support their efforts to
improve energy efficiency.
Energy Efficiency National Partnership (EENP)
The EENP is a voluntary partnership programme that assists companies to
enhance their business competitiveness and reduce their carbon footprint.
NEA administers several incentive schemes to help companies achieve
energy efficiency:
Design for Efficiency (DfE)
Energy Efficiency Improvement Assistance Scheme (EASe)
Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies (GREET)
Singapore - MEWR
Solar Energy
Promote the use of solar power in housing states, buildings and at public
spaces
Waste Minimization & Recycling
Promote recycling (public education and recycling facilities) Promote less
packing and give incentives for reducing waste
Resource-Efficient Buildings
Collect rainwater and recycle used water for public housing
Reduce the number of lights for common areas or use energy-efficient lights
and lighting sensors
Regulate the use of glass that add to cooling load due to tropical climate
Design apartments to have better natural ventilation and sunning provisions
Greenery and Biodiversity
Encourage community gardening/farming
Plant trees that can provide more shading
Singapore - MEWR
Energy Efficiency
Preventing overcooling and improving energy efficiency in buildings
Saving energy at home
Pollution Control
Keeping vehicle emissions in check
Singapore - U.S. Energy Information Administration
Almost 90% of Singapore's primary energy consumption
comes from petroleum use, mostly for refining.
Singapore has almost no indigenous hydrocarbon resources. Imported crude
goes mostly to the petrochemicals and refining sector.
Imported natural gas fuels most of Singapore's power generation, with small
amounts of coal and renewable resources fueling the rest.
Natural gas use represented nearly 10 % of the country's total primary energy
consumption in 2011. In 2005, natural gas consumption was 233 billion cubic
feet (Bcf) increasing to 331 Bcf in 2012. More than 80% of Singapore’s
electricity is fuelled by piped natural gas.
As natural gas demand continues to grow, the country seeks to augment gas
imported via pipeline with liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
LNG import terminal began operating in second-quarter 2013. This new
capacity will enable Singapore to diversify its suppliers for all its natural gas
imports.
Singapore – Public Utilities Board
Expected total water demand by 2060 (760 Mgal/day), nearly double
of what it was in 2011
By 2060, the production of NEWater is expected to triple to meet 50%
of all demand, compared to 30% in 2011.
Desalination, objective is to intensify capacity by 10-fold to meet 30%
of the long-term water needs mostly coming from commercial and
industrial users.
Combined, both sources are estimated to increase their consumption
share from 40% in 2011 to 80% in 2060.
Technology, more efficient processes and less energy intensive
Singapore – NEWater (treated wastewater)
Energy requirements: average 0.95 kWh/m3
In 2011, the five existing plants could produce about 122 Mgal/day of
NEWater: Bedok (18 Mgal/day); Kranji (17 Mgal/day); Seletar (5 Mgal/day)
(decomissioned), Ulu Pandan (32 Mgl/day); Changi (50 Mgal/day).
The NEWater produced was commercially and industrially utilized in different
production processes:
13.5 Mgal/day - wafer fabrication
19.8 Mgal/day - manufacturing industries including petrochemicals, chemical
and electronics
4.3 Mgal/day - commercial buildings
3.2 Mgal/day - other purposes.
NEWater is also used for cooling towers, and for general washing and toilet
flushing in commercial buildings, etc.
Singapore - Seawater desalination
Desalinated water represents about 10% of water demand. It is expected
to increase to 25% by 2060.
Some 100 million gallons (100,000 m3) of desalinated water is produced/day.
Desalination by reverse-osmosis is very energy intensive (3.4 - 4.8 kWh/m3).
In 2011 – 3.5 kWh/m3
The initial tender figure was $0.78/m3 in 2005; in practice, the actual first year
selling price was approximately half this amount.
In the mid-term, the objective is to reduce energy requirements to 1.5 kWh/m3. In
the long-term, to 0.75 kWh/m3, mostly through technological and management
advancements (Puah, 2011)
Photo: Dr. Olli Varis
The interest on the water-energy-food nexus in urban areas?
Close attention on the relationship between the broader economy and energy
(and thus water).
Water security, energy security, food security
(resource use policies, governance, technology)
Recommended