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Conference Call / Webcast RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT 4th Quarter and Fiscal Year 2008 (Brazilian Corporate Law) ALMIR GUILHERME BARBASSA CFO and Investor Relations Officer March, 10th 2009
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1
P53
FPSO Cidade de Niter ói P51
ALMIR GUILHERME BARBASSA CFO and Investor Relations Officer
March, 10th 2009
4th Quarter and Fiscal Year 2008 (Brazilian Corporate Law)
Conference Call / Webcast
RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT
2
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the
expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect",
"forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are
used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether
foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current
expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented
herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of newinformation or future developments.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings
with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or
conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and
operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, thatthe SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
DisclaimerDisclaimer
1782 1865 1883
277 330 330
Oil and NGL Natural Gas
3
NATIONAL PRODUCTION OF OIL, NGL & NATURAL GAS – 4Q08 VS 3Q08
Tho
us. b
pdOil and Natural Gas Average Domestic
Production
Record daily production of oil in Brazil (03.04.200 9) 2,012,654 barrels
2,213 2,195
-1%2,059
4Q07 3Q08 4Q08
• Slight decrease in the 4Q08 production due to:
• Natural decline in mature fields;
• Operating Stoppages.
• Partially offset by increase in production of new s ystems P-52 and P-54 (Roncador) and P-53 (Marlim Leste).
3
4
PLATFORM / FIELD
CAPACITY FIRST OILCURRENT
PRODUCTION* (bpd)
INTERCONNECTEDWELLS
EXPECTEDWELLS
P-51 / Marlim Sul 180 thousand bpd 01/24/2009 45,9092 producers and 1
injector10 producers e
9 injectors
P-53 / Marlim Leste
180 thousand bpd 11/30/2008 48,375 3 producers13 producers
and 8 injectors
FPSO Cidade de Niterói / /Marlim Leste
100 thousand bpd 02/26/2009 32,940 1 producer9 producers
(oil) e 1 producer (gas)
Total 460 thousand bpd - 127,224
NEW PRODUCTION SYSTEMS STATUS
P-51 P-53 FPSO Cidade de Niterói
* In 03/02/09
5
UPDATE ON SANTOS BASIN PRE SALT
Rio de Janeiro50 km
Tupi
Carioca
ParatiIara
GuaraBM-S-21BR 80% BM-S-24
BR 80%
BM-S-10BR 65% BM-S-11
BR 65%
BM-S-9BR 45%
BM-S-8BR 66%
BM-S-22BR 20%
Azulão
Bem-te-vi
Caramba
5
Drilled Wells
Drilling Plan 2009:
Status Tupi EWT:
• 9 wells, being 8 exploratory and 1 producing
• FPSO BW Cidade de São Vicente in transit to Brazil;
• Well 3-RJS-646 (south of Tupi), in process of completion and evaluation. Formation tests show good results;
• Production start-up expected for 2Q09.
6
47.9547.79
57.0464.42
76.75
86.13
105.46100.58
96.90114.78
121.37
88.69
74.8768.76
57.7554.91
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Average Sales Price Brent (average)
Avg. 3Q08
Avg. 4Q08
• In the 4Q08, decrease in Brent and Petrobras’ oil p rices surpassed 50% when compared to the previous quarter;
• Spread between domestic oil average sales price and Brent decreased from US$ 14.20/bbl in the 3Q08, to US$ 6.96/bbl in the 4Q08.
E&P OIL PRICES (US$ per barrel)
7
LIFTING COST IN BRAZIL
15.22 15.16 16.34 17.61 19.09
25.76 28.0434.80 36.79
22.39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
Lifting Cost (R$) Gov Take (R$)
8.60 8.66 9.88 10.21 8.24
14.56 16.1621.20 20.06
9.87
114.8
54.9
121.4
96.988.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Lifting Cost (US$) Gov. Take (US$) Brent
US$/barrel R$/barrel
23.16 24.82
31.0830.27
18.11
40.9843.20
51.1454.40
41.48
� 19% decrease in US$ lifting costs without government take fr om the 3Q08 to the 4Q08;
� In reais, lifting cost without government take increased du e to real devaluation;
� Decrease in government take due to lower domestic oil refere nce prices.
8
AVERAGE REALIZATION PRICES – ARP
8
US$/bbl R$/bbl
3Q08 4Q08Average 2008ARP USA: US$ 109.72/bbl
ARP Petrobras: US$ 91.81/bbl
3Q08 4Q08Average 2008ARP USA: R$ 194.73bbl
ARP Petrobras: R$ 176.41/bbl
• Adjustment in diesel (15%) and gasoline (10%) on Ma y 2008 were not enough to reset parity with interna tional prices;
• Only in the 4Q08 Petrobras’ ARP reached the level o f international benchmarks;
• Decrease in ARP measured in Dollar due to Real deva luation. ARP’s curve is more stable when expressed in Reais.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
dez/06 mar/07 jun/07 set/07 dez/07 mar/08 jun/08 set/08 dez/08
PMR EUA PMR PetrobrasARP USA ARP Petrobras
0
50
100
150
200
250
dez/06 mar/07 jun/07 set/07 dez/07 mar/08 jun/08 set/08 dez/08
PMR EUA PMR PetrobrasARP USA ARP Petrobras
129.81
112.49
77.40
71.78
176.48162.23
215.62
187.02
9
Tho
usan
d ba
rrel
s/da
yOIL AND OIL PRODUCTS IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
353 390
102
160 97
51
Exports Imports Net Exports
615
538
77
Financial Surplus 2007US$ 71 Million
Financial Deficit 2008US$ 928 Million
� Despite surplus in volumes, a financial deficit in trade bal ance;
� Investments focused in capturing margins through increase in refining capacity of domestic crude.
439373
81
152
127
70
Exports Imports Net Exports
672
570
102
10
• Lower exports’ revenues due to lower crude oil and oil products prices in international market;• Imports gains with lower oil prices are partly offs et by inventory costs – average cost methodology;• About 40% of oil products prices sold in domestic m arket are adjusted in the short term.
DieselGasoline
LPG
Naphtha and others
Expo rts c rude o il and o il pro ducts
Adjusted immediately
Adjusted short term
Adjusted long term
Oil ProductsCrude Oil Imports
Revenue Cost
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING BETWEEN REVENUES AND COSTS
Government Take
11
OPERATING INCOME (EXTRAORDINARY ITENS)LAW 6.404/76
R$ Million
11
• Extraordinary Items affected operating results;
• Financial revenue from hedge of R$ 603 million in t he 4Q08 and R$ 156 million in the 3Q08.
4Q08 3Q08 Variation
Operating Income 5,041 10,852 (5,811)
- Losses with Devaluation of Inventories 1,089 293 796
- Inventory Turnover Effect (losses) 2,719 187 2,532
- Impairment 925 - 925
- Contractual charges and Fines 58 80 (22)
- Inventory Losses (Trading Operations) 964 762 202
Operating Income without Extraordinary
Items Effects10,796 12,174 1,378
12
EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION – CHANGE IN OPERATING INCOME (R$ MILLION – 4Q08 VS 3Q08)
Impairment
16,665 10,676
1,2681,253 603 29 7,936
12
• Upstream results affected by lower oil prices;
• Impairment of R$ 603 million due to losses of econo mically viability in projects as oil prices went down (Brent prices fell 52% at 4Q08/3Q0 8);
• Costs reduction due to lower Government take.
3Q08 Oper.
Profit Price Effect on revenues
Net Volume Effect
on revenues
Net Cost Effecton average
COGS
Other Operational
expenses
4Q08 Oper.Profit
13
DOWNSTREAM - CHANGE IN OPERATING INCOME (R$ MILLION – 4Q08 VS 3Q08)
13
3Q08Oper. Loss
Net Volume Effect
Loss with Inventory
Devaluation4Q08
Oper. Loss
(2,437)
5,798 7,394
141 161541 (1,402)
Price Effect in Revenue
Average Cost Effect in COGs
Other Oper. Expenses
• Downstream income affected by decrease in realizati on prices;
• By the retention of costs in inventories in the cur rent quarter and realization of inventories formed with higher costs in previous periods.
14
GAS AND ENERGY - OPERATING INCOME CHANGE(R$ MILLION – 2008 VS 2007)
14
Jan to Dec 2007Oper. Loss
Price Effect in Revenue
Volume Effect in Revenue
Average Cost Effect in COGs
Volume Effect in COGs
Operating Expenses
Jan to Dec 2008Oper. Loss
(1,624)
3,334
1,818105 (525)
1,956
4,190
• Increase in gross profit due to higher sales volume s (increase in energy and gas sales) and better margins due to the renewal of contracts with natura l gas distributors;
• Contractual charges and fines (R$ 434 million) in t he energy sector should decrease due to investments ;
• Positive EBITDA (R$ 236 million).
15
INTERNATIONAL – OPERATING INCOME CHANGE (R$ MILLION – 2008 VS 2007)
15
Jan to Dec 2007Oper. Loss
Price and Volume Effect in Revenue
Cost and Volume Effect in COGs
Losses with Inventory
DevaluationOther Oper. Expenses
• Operating result affected by losses with inventory devaluation (R$ 699 million);
• EBITDAx of R$ 1,080 million – exploratory expenses o f R$ 1,103 million, depreciation of R$ 1,758 million.
Jan to Dec 2008Oper. Loss
(106)
9,498 8,496
6991,078 (881)
16
NET INCOME CHANGE – R$ MILLION – 4Q08 VS 3Q08
16
Domestic Oil, NGL and Condensate Production (thous. bpd)1,883 1,865
10,852 4,198
1,014
2,959
429
3,511
1,089503 7,355
3Q08Net Income
4Q08Net Income
Employees Part.
Revenues COGs Oper. Expenses
Fin. Expenses and Equity
Income
Taxes Minority Interest
1,699Non-recurrent Expenses
Net Income affected by:• Decrease in realization prices of oil and oil produc ts;• Extraordinary Items, such as impairment, losses wit h inventory devaluation and inventory turnover;• Lower tax payments due to fiscal benefit resulting from the provisioning of interest on own capital;• Positive financial results due to real devaluation.
4Q08 3Q08 2008 2007
Cash Flow from Operational Activities
Net Income 7,355 10,852 32,988 21,512
Depreciation 11,632 10,696
Others 5,332 10,031
CFFO 15,279 13,013 49,952 42,239
Net Cash Used in Investment Activities
Capex (17,121) (13,461) (52,118) (41,405)
Others (1,138) (666) (1,307) (3,828)
Total Investments (18,259) (14,127) (53,425) (45,233)
Cash Flow Used in Financing Activities
Financing and Loans, Net 7,451 846 11,837 (3,948)
Dividends (26) (2) (6,213) (7,474)
Net Cash Flow Used in Financing Activities 7,425 844 5,624 (11,422)
Cash and Cash equivalents at the beginning of the period 10,776 11,046 13,071 27,829
Cash and Cash equivalents at the end of the period 15,222 10,776 15,222 13,071
17
CASH FLOW
• 4Q08 Cash Flow reflects the 21% decrease in invento ries value, that affected negatively income and EBITDA, with no impact on cash;
• Pre-funding of 2009 needs was followed by increase in cash and cash equivalents.
2008 Cash Flow according to Law 11.638. 4Q08 CF wa s measured through an analysis based on the compari son of 2008 flow with the 9M08 (before the law adjustments ). 17
R$ Million
18
R$ million 12/31/2008 * 12/31/2007 %
Short Term debt (1) 13,859 8,960 55%
Long Term Debt (1) 50,854 30,781 65%
Total Debt 64,713 39,741 63%
Cash and Cash Equivalents 15,889 13,071 22%
Net Debt (2) 48,824 26,670 83%
Capital Structure 50% 48% +2 pp
• Net debt increase was driven by real devaluation (a pproximately R$ 9.0 billion) and new debt issued in the international and domestic markets;
• Level of indebtedness (net debt/EBITDA) was 0.85 on Dec 31, 2008
21%
26%
21%
19%
21%
19%19%
16% 17%18%
25%
21%
18%
23%
27%27%27%
28%
12/31/2006 06/30/2007 12/31/2007 06/30/2008 31/12/2008*
Net Debt/Net Capt. ST debt/Total debt
US$ million 12/31/2008 * 12/31/2007 %
Total Debt 27,691 22,436 23%
*After adjustments of Law 11.638/07(1) Total debt - cash and cash equivalents
LEVERAGE
19
CHANGES IN ACCOUNTING PRACTICES: LAW 11.638/07 VS 6.404/76 – 2008 (R$ MILLION)
• Law 11.638/07 altered and revoked certain provision s dealing with accounting matters in Law 6.404/76 (Corporate Law) aiming to align Brazilian accounting practices with international standards (IFRS).
R$ million
Item Law 6.404/76 Transaction Subvention Fin. Inst. Leas ing Law 11.638/07
Gross Sales 284,579 (18,085) 266,494
Cost of Goods Sold (157,499) 15,350 526 (141,623)
Gross Profit 74,685 (1,715) 526 73,495
Operating Expenses 29,081 1,024 557 (198) 153 (27,544)
Net Financial Expenses 4,021 508 200 (1,601) 3,128
Equity Balance Result (399) (475) (874)
Operating Profit 49,226 (659) 557 1 (922) 48,205
Net Income 33,915 (636) 557 (109) (740) 32,988
20
PBR vs. AmexOil (until 03.04.09)
Petr4 vs. Ibovespa (until 03.04.09)
Source: Bloomberg
BUSINESS PLAN 2009-2013 WAS WELL RECEIVED
20
112.49
81.88
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
12/31 1/6 1/12 1/16 1/22 1/28 2/3 2/9 2/13 2/19 2/25 3/3
Inde
x N
umbe
r= 1
00 in
12.
31.0
8
PBR US$ Amex Oil
Before BP 2009-2013
115.46
102.27
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
12/31 1/6 1/12 1/16 1/22 1/28 2/3 2/9 2/13 2/19 2/25 3/3
Inde
x N
umbe
r = 1
00 in
12.
31.0
8
PETR4 R$ IBOVESPA
Before BP 2009-2013
21
For more information:Investor Relationswww.petrobras.com.br/ri+55 21 3224-1510petroinvest@petrobras.com.br
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