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Western Australia Police
The Rise of
Evidence-Based
Policing
December 2015
The Changing Landscape - Technology has advanced more
in the last thirty years, than in the previous two thousand;
your organisation can only rely on one thing in determining its
future end-state………….. CHANGE, CHANGE, CHANGE. John Kotter
We have a new metropolitan operating model (RWA Model Under development), however essentially we are still delivering
old policing activities.
EBP = better understanding of
what works;
what doesn't; and
what's promising
EBP = Demand reduction and
problem solving (the “outside view”)
To share the EBP philosophy
within our agency and engage you in this exciting program
Why are we here?
This Evidence-Based Policing Program
– The Anchor Point –
It will be confronting It will be challenging
There will be new terminology, technology, methodology
You will have to think hard, ask questions, debate the issues
and make up you own mind
We need to know what worksWe need to be able to target resources
where they can be most effective
We need to know what reduces crimeWe need greater scope to sight
opportunities for crime prevention and reduction
• Random patrol
• Rapid response
• Reactive Investigation
Policing in 1975was largely in a
one-sized-fits-all strategy,
sometimes described as the
Three R’s
The Scale of Our Problem
Exactly Right Decisions
• Aiming for greatest impact. Targeting
• Deciding what works. Testing
• Making sure it happens. Tracking
Those who will die even with
immediate medical
attention
Those who will live even without
immediate medical
attention
Those who only with
immediate medical
attention will live
Triage: Live-or-Die Few
Targeting Concentrations of Crime:
“The Power Few”
• 17% of offenders yield 50% of arrests
• 3% of addresses yield 50% of police calls
• 1% of police officers yield most complaints
• Crime reduction: 15% of street segments in
Seattle produced 50% reduction in crime.
Where would you apply your resources?
The application of scarce resources directed at the small concentrations
of places, victims and offenders in any distribution of crime which
produces the greatest amount of harm
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Crime Peaks vs Crime Valleys
Focus
• Places, offenders, victims, gangs
• Specific Crime Types
Classify
• Concentrations
• Causes
Prioritize
• Greatest impact
• Best chance of success
Targeting – The Power Few
Philadelphia Robbery Hot Spots
Comparing two methods
Same kind of problems\ • Which one works
better?
• Which one costs less?
• Which one gets best result for same cost?
Then asking:
Testing
Randomised Controlled Trials
Crime Where When
Security Who What
Match? Ratios Trends Feedback
Tracking Outputs against
outcomes
• Take what we have and Realign effort to reduce demand based on those outcomes,
• Making sure we have productivity measures in place to ensure efforts are been
targeted towards demand reduction.
• Visioning process – looking ahead give EBP greater scope to sight opportunities for
crime reductions.
• Hand off - Build on the great work undertaken by our people to ensure investment is
focused on what works or what doesn’t work – Feedback Loop
• Experimental outcomes will assist in directing effort where it is most needed
How Do We Get There?
Punching Blind – swinging but not hitting the mark
The defensive responses to change:
•“Yeah we do that here. “Yeah we tried that, but it didn’t work.”
•“Yeah but it’s different here.”
Sometimes we react instinctively – because that’s how we have been taught / done it in the past
You are employed to ‘research, analyse and think’ about policing as much you are
employed to deliver policing.
Progress is impossible without change
The Importance of
the ‘Outside View’
The Evidence-Based
Policing Project
Project team commenced in January 2015 within the Policing Improvement Division.
Established under the 7th Stream of Reform.
Superintendent Noreen O’Rourke Senior Responsible Officer, Evidence-Based Policing
Inspector Tony Longhorn– Project Lead
• Project Officers
• Data collection, trend analysis, experimental design
Data Analytics and Assessment Officer x 5
Geospatial Analyst x 1
Data Extraction x 1
Project Managers x 5
• Cradle to grave training, internal and external.
• Liaison for workshops in August and December.
Training and Development x 2
The Team
• Geospatial analysis and targeting
• Data provisioning services
• Manages the project from design to evaluation.
• Steering and working group facilitation.
Project Admin x 2• WBS, Gantt, risks, issues and reporting
• Project documentation
• Project Management
• Data collection and trend analysisEBPU skills
Frontline skills
Nudge Framework
• Internal record of experiment design and outcomes
• External record of experimental outcomesRegistry of Projects
Training and
Capability
• Masterclass and video workshops
• Data collection and trend analysis
• Experiment Proposals via crowdsourcing ideas
• Support and guidance from EBPU
Crackdown
First evidence based operation undertaken by
WA Police
Discovering
what works,
what’s promisingand
what doesn’t work
Use this information to
develop a crackdown
model for WA
Operation about targeting
resources for greater impact
Crackdown
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
06
:00
- 0
6:3
0
07
:00
- 0
7:3
0
08
:00
- 0
8:3
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09
:00
- 0
9:3
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10
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- 1
0:3
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- 1
1:3
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- 1
2:3
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- 1
3:3
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14
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- 1
4:3
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15
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- 1
5:3
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- 1
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Day o
f We
ek
Time of Day (in half-hour increments)
Fremantle Aoristic Crime Analysis: 2009/2014 financial year
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25
Crackdown
Crackdown
Crackdown
Did it Work??
Findings
Findings
Weighing up variations in crime count, the most effective treatment strategy
was assessed to be the ‘all weeks on’ approach in Mandurah.
However from a cost benefit perspective, Strategy # 1 (Fremantle – week
on/off) and Strategy # 4 (Mandurah – all weeks on) showed similar outcomes,
with # 1 being 2/3 the resource cost of the other.
If a Crackdown was conducted again in the same locations for 12 weeks
using a week-on week-off strategy, the deployment costs could be reduced by
$53,280.
We can only confirm this by testing this approach in a subsequent Crackdown
operation in other entertainment precincts.
Turning Point
First time offenders who commit low risk
offences.
Program based on the principles of:
• Deterrence
• Desistance
• Diversion
Turning point agreement combines a deferred
prosecution with a set of conditions and
treatments agreed with the offender
These conditions are intended to address
underlying issues and deter further offending
Simple and achievable agreement
Turning Point
Turning Point
Excluded Offences All offences listed in Schedule 1 or Schedule 2 of the Young Offenders Act 1994;
Traffic related offences
Graffiti offences
Offences involving the use or threatened use of any prohibited or controlled weapon;
Domestic violence
Sexual or indecency offences;
Possession or attempted possession of drugs (sell/supply amounts);
Theft of property (excluding stolen motor vehicles) with a value exceeding $10,000;
Fraud exceeding $10,000;
Damage to property to a value exceeding $10,000;
Burglary – adult offending only
Breach of Bail or any other court initiated order;
Assault Public Officer
Offences related to national security;
Racist harassment/incitement to racial hatred
Offence must occur within the district and offender must reside within the district
Turning Point
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 24
6
14
1 1 1
11
22
3
1 1
17
1
Nu
mb
er
of
Ch
arg
es
Offence
Offence Type of TP Participants
Turning Point
Gender: Male
Age: 19
Ethnicity: Caucasian
Offence: 1 x Carry or Possess Weapon other than Controlled or Prohibited with Intent to
Cause Fear
The participant was referred to Turning Point following an altercation with a neighbour
where he armed himself with a knife. When challenged by the neighbour, he realised his
error in judgement and ran back inside his house. He has since apologised to the neighbour
involved. During his meeting with the TPMT, the participant admitted that he has anger
management problems and was referred to anger management counselling as part of his
four month Agreement. He was also offered advice regarding seeking training to raise his
future employment prospects and provided a brochure of service providers.
Body Worn Video
A trial of body worn video across the
Agency.
Provides greater transparency
around incidents involving the public.
• increase early guilty pleas
• decrease police complaints
• use of force incidents
• increase community satisfaction (coming into contact with police)
• increased officer confidence
Benefits realised in
other jurisdictions have been:
Body Worn Video
• EBP exposure through watching and workshopping 24 of the 100 discoveries in EBP
• We intend to consider each of the 100 EBP discoveries for implementation in WA Police
The next phase…
EBP – In 100 Discoveries
“Policing in 1975 was largely delivered in a one-size-fits-all strategy, sometimes described as the “Three Rs”: random patrol, rapid response, and reactive investigations’’
Questions?
The Rise of Evidenced Based Policing
Lawrence Sherman (2013).
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