Dr Vivienne Ivory Principal Urban Scientist, Opus International Consultants - speaking at Seismics...

What would it take to get you into the central city?

Creating agile evidence for rebuild decision-makers

Seismic & the City 2014

Dr Vivienne IvoryOpus Research

• How to sustain Christchurch over the recovery phase?

• How can research inform the recovery phase?

Virtual experiment.

Natural experiment

It’s going to take a while, so…

‘Virtual’ experiment – faced with a scenario of moving to the central city, what is most important to your quality of life?

• Neighbourhood priorities?

• Dwelling priorities?

• Would they stay?

Trying something different (part 1)

Neighbourhood priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?

Trying something different (part 1)

• Dwelling priorities?: what is most important to your quality of life?

Trying something different (part 1)

Change in dwelling options over rebuild

Valu

e se

lect

ed (1

-5)

Increasingly rebuilt central

city

Would they choose to stay?

Response to the ‘virtual’ experiment

• Content based on current evidence:

– quality of life,

– healthy neighbourhoods,

– mobility patterns

• Needs haven’t changed

• Willing to try alternatives?

What factors could affect uptake?

Surprised? Not really

Household diversity

Affordability advantage

Final stage selected by dwelling cost ‘experience’

Participants responded with an urban lifestyle

• Local travel

• Reduced car trips

• Everyday needs met locally (food, recreation, socialising)

Lifestyle advantage

Balancing dwelling and neighbourhood features

Changes in satisfaction with living environment over rebuild stages

Satisfaction (10=very satisfied)

Increasingly rebuilt central

city

‘Natural’ experiment

Trying something different (part 2)

Changing where business takes place

Changing where business takes place

Changing where business takes place

Changing where business takes place

Changing where business takes place

Changing what business takes place here

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 Russley: trends for business units 2000-2013

Manufacturing

Construction

Wholesale Trade

Financial and In-surance Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services

Num

ber o

f bus

ines

s un

its

Changing what business takes place here

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Phillipstown: trends for business units 2000-2013

Manufacturing

Construction

Wholesale Trade

Financial and In-surance Services

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Professional, Scien-tific and Technical Services

Num

ber

of b

usin

ess

units

• Business continuity > adaption

• But now? ‘normal location factors???– Broadband and other business infrastructure

– Personal amenity value – family & friends, attractive environments, social scene

– Accessibility for employees, trade

– Agglomeration (dependent on sector, size of city, etc)

A surprising response?

• How much adaptability can business & the city take?

• Implications for business in novel settings?

• And for their ‘hosting’ neighbourhoods?

Will location matter over the recovery?

Long-term trends

Earthquake period

Short-term recovery Long-term

reconstruction

Trends over time Flows within the city and beyond

Dynamics of economic recovery:

• What needs to be put

in place now for the

future vision

• Maintaining business

& households in

atypical

environments

• To be continued…

How can Christchurch meet those needs as the city keeps changing?

Neighbourhood infrastructure

Residential sector

‘Local’ commercial

sector