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THE MAGNITUDE 6.0 NAPA VALLEY, CA EARTHQUAKE 3:20 AM, AUGUST 24, 2014. Strongest in area since the M 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Quake, BUT about 1/30th the energy release. EARLY REPORTS OF SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS: Local damage to buildings and houses, injuries, but no deaths (yet), Damage to contents, Loss of Power, Damage to Highway 12, Local fires, Aftershocks EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON ANTICIPATING FUTURE IMPACTS. Presentation courtesy of Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
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BREAKING NEWSAugust 24, 2014
THE MAGNITUDE 6.0 NAPA VALLEY, CA EARTHQUAKE
3:20 AM, AUGUST 24, 2014
Strongest in area since the M 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta Quake, BUT about
1/30th the energy release
LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
LOCATION: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
USGS’ SHAKE MAP: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
AUGUST 24: EARLY REPORTS OF SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS
• Local damage to buildings and houses, injuries, but no deaths (yet)
• Damage to contents• Loss of Power • Damage to Highway 12• Local fires• Aftershocks
Dr. Walter HaysUS Geological Survey (Retired)
Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction
Earthquake Hazards and
Effects
Preparedness Emergency Response
ESSENTIAL PILLARS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON EMERGENCY RESPONSE
GLOBAL AN D LOCAL CONTEXTS
PACIFIC RING OF FIRE
Prone to earthquakes and tsunamis
STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE ACTIVITY
At least one event every 30 years0 events in 30 years
YOUR
COMMUNITYDATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
RISKACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• EM RESPONSE• RECOSTRUCTION AND
RECOVERY
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
• MONITORING• HAZARD MAPS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION
TYPICAL SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED DURING EM. RESPONSE
• DAMAGE; DEBRIS• COLLAPSE• TRAPPED SURVIVORS• SEARCH AND RESCUE
CLOCK• FIRES• INUNDATION
• EVACUATION CENTERS• EM. MEDICAL• MASS CARE • HAZ MAT RELEASE• INJURIES• DEATHS
THE GOAL:
DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE:
CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY
REALITY:
UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
LACK OF EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS
INSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OF
COMMUNITY
INSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OF
COMMUNITY
REALITY:
URGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
URGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
LACK OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITY
INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY
WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?
A state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national scales that is
sufficient to keep the expected and unexpected effects of an earthquake from
causing a disaster
ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS
• Strong ground shaking• Tsunami wave run up• Liquefaction• Landslides• Aftershocks• Vulnerabilities
STRONG GROUND SHAKING
GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES
AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS INCREASES,
SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE
WHAT IS PROTECTION?
A legally mandated state of planning and verified robustness, strength, and
ductility for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure to prevent
loss of function
WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE
All of the scripted and unscripted heroic and historic responses during the “race against time” after a quake to save lives
and protect property
KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS
• Know your seimic activity (i.e., Seismicity )
• Know your fault zones• Know your Vulnerabilites
FAULTS
THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE
• San Andreas Fault• 600 Miles long• Source of M8
Earthquakes in 1847 and 1906
THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE
• The Juan De Faca Plate• Subducting beneath
Wash and Oregon • Potential for M9.0
ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES
• Wasatch Fault, Utah• 250 Miles long• Potential source of
M7.0-7.5 earthquake
ONE OF THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES
• New Madrid Seismic Zone
• Source of four (4) M* earthquakes in 1811--1812
Community preparedness and emergency management response increases as the
community’s capability to anticipate what will increases
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS
A DISASTER RISK REDUCTION TECHNIQUE FOR USE IN ANY EARTHQUAKE-PRONE AREA
SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FACILITATES ADVANCE PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTING ”INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT” PRACTICES BEFORE PAST MAJOR EARTHQUAKES RECUR AND READINESS WHEN THEY DO
Source: US Geological Survey and many public-private sector partners
HAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISK
INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE
• WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN
• WHERE
• WHY
• HOW BAD
• WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS
INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE
• WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN
• WHERE
• WHY
• HOW BAD
• WHAT CAN WE DO TO MINIMIZE THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
MONITORING
AND RESEARCH
MONITORING
AND RESEARCH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCENARIO
(developed in 2008)
BASED ON INTEGRATED KNOWLEDGE FROM MONITORING, RESEACH, AND POSTEARTHQUAKE STUDIES SINCE
APRIL 1906
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?
• How likely is a damaging earthquake to occur?
• Where and when will it occur?• How big will it be?• How strong will its potential
disaster agents be?
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SCENARIO
• The Bay Area is prone to large earthquakes because it straddles the boundary between two major tectonic plates — the North American and Pacific plates.
SAN ANDREAS, HAYWARD, AND OTHER FAULT ZONES
EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES WORKING GROUP
EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES WORKING GROUP
EARTHQUAKE PROBABILITIES WORKING GROUP
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA SCENARIO
• Much of the stress release happens on the San Andreas fault, but some of it is relieved by the Hayward fault and other smaller parallel faults.
A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
• Because of its location in the densely populated Bay area of 7 million people, a Hayward fault quake is likely to cause worse societal impacts than a San Andreas quake and be one of the nation's largest natural disasters.
HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
DAMAGEDAMAGE
PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISK
PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISK
COLLAPSECOLLAPSE
LOSS OF FUNCTIONLOSS OF FUNCTION
ECONOMIC LOSS
ECONOMIC LOSS
RISKRISK
WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)?
• What kinds of buildings are at risk?
• What kinds of basic, essential, and critical infrastructure are at risk?
• What are the physical vulnerabilities?
A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
• Potentially affecting 5 million people, a Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay bridge, and the campus of University of California, Berkeley.
WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)?
• What are the social vulnerabilities?
• What is the likely damage distribution?
• What are the HAT ARE THE LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO-ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS?
HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
• Damage will be extensive to buildings and infrastructure.•The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems are expected to take a major hit in a M7.0 or greater earthquake.
HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
• A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.
DAMAGE: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
DAMAGE TO HIGHWAY 12: AUGUST 24 NAPA VALLEY EARTHQUAKE
CONCLUSION
EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE”
ON ANTICIPATING FUTURE IMPACTS
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