NCVO Foresight: taking the fear out of change

Strategic Foresight:taking the fear out of change

nick.wilsonyoung@ncvo-vol.org.uk

Foresight is…understanding your changing world

& so making better decisions

Spotting the storm before it hits (buying you time to plan)

Foresight helps you reduce risk – by anticipating

Preparedness Not prediction

Foresight helps you choose a hill so you can plan the right moves to get there

it helps avoid surprises

Foresight helps you: stay innovative

stay relevant

shape your future, not just react

so it goes before planning…

decide what you’re about

evaluate, learn…

do it !

foresight

spot options, make choices

plan

...not after planning !

It pays to make time for foresight[or you’ll always be fire-fighting]

some healthy scepticism

‘there’s no time for this !’

‘either we know what’s coming, or we can’t !’

we should have seen it coming

but so should they

‘It’s not the strongest or most intelligent that survives,it’s the most adaptable’

So, how do you do foresight ?

It’s a three-part process

What trends or forces (drivers)may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries ?(for good or ill)

So what are the implications ?

Now what to do about it ?

We make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) at 3s4.org.uk

Spotting drivers (the What)

eg: multi-crunch of economy, climate, natural resources, ageing

(+ stubborn, rising social need)

PlanDevelop

scenarios

Develop tactics and

policies Review

HIGH IMPACT

LOWER IMPACT

UN

CER

TA

INC

ER

TA

IN

Ranking drivers

Working out driver implications (the So What)

External implications Internal implications

Users & theirneeds

Funders & their priorities

Relationships & influence

Workforce (paid, volunteer) & Trustees

The organisation’s work (services & activities)

Governance including accountability &evaluation

Systems, Skills,Technology(communications, administration, management etc)

How to respond (the Now What)

Improvements

Innovations

Improvisations

We can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity, and have lots of downloadable materials to do it yourself

www.3s4.org.uk

twitter: @NCVOForesight

www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/resources

nick.wilsonyoung@ncvo-vol.org.uk