Power to the People? Beyond Populism

POWER TO

THE PEOPLE?

BEYOND POPULISM

#ipsosmorilive

2 © 2015 Ipsos.

Agenda

Darrell Bricker Global CEO Public Affairs, Ipsos Canada

6

Nando Pagnoncelli President, Ipsos Italy

5Mari Harris Director & Political Analyst, Ipsos S.A.

Henri Wallard Global Chairman Public Affairs, Ipsos France

4

Ben Page CEO, Ipsos MORI UK

3

Cliff Young President Public Affairs, Ipsos U.S.

CLIFF

YOUNG

PRESIDENT,PUBLIC AFFAIRSIPSOS U.S.

@CliffAYoung

NEW POLITICAL

SUPERCYCLE

5 © 2015 Ipsos.

Belief in a broken system….Society is broken/in decline 57%

Economy rigged for advantage of the rich and powerful 68%

Feel like a stranger in my country 38%

Need a strong leader to take it back from the rich and powerful 64%

Confidence in institutions….

Political Parties 14%

The Media 27%

6 © 2015 Ipsos.

Emergent belief system inTrumpian America

7 © 2015 Ipsos.

NA

TIVISM

45

45

70

72

56

55

When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of

this country over…

More and more, I don't identify with what America has become

SYSTEM

IS B

RO

KEN

All Republicans DemocratsSource: Ipsos Polls, Sept 2015 & Jan 2016

Nativism & System is Broken: in US

82

71

56

68

70

69

In America today, the rich are getting richer and the poor are

getting poorer

Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me

8 © 2015 Ipsos.

Nativism Increasingly Driving Identification as Republican

Identify as Republican

American Dream

Anti-Big Government

Anti-Abortion

System is broken

Worse off than parents

Fear of Others

Nativism/Anti-Immigrant

Authoritarianism

9 © 2015 Ipsos.

Nativism vs. System is Broken: Global Context

Argentina

Australia

BelgiumBrazil

Canada

France

Germany

Hungary

India

Italy

Japan

Mexico

Poland

South Africa

South Korea

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

Great BritainUS

Israel

Peru

Syst

em

is B

roke

n

Nativism

10 © 2015 Ipsos.

Key Drivers: Nativism + System is Broken

1317

1923

262728

3030

3134

3636

40404141

4345

4850

South AfricaMexico

SwedenIndia

JapanAustralia

IsraelTurkey

ItalyGermany

South KoreaAll countries

BelgiumPoland

BrazilCanada

Great BritainArgentina

USSpain

France

Relative importance explained

MARI

HARRIS

DIRECTOR & POLITICAL ANALYSTIPSOS S.A.

12 © 2015 Ipsos.12

The Pulse of the People

Beyond Populism:

13 © 2015 Ipsos.13 © 2017 Ipsos.

In South Africa there was a surge in populism and populist politics since 2007 when Jacob Zuma became ANC leader – and especially since he became president in May 2009.

14 © 2015 Ipsos.14 © 2017 Ipsos.

This became more pronounced when the EFF was formed in 2013, the two populist parties now clashed head-on in Parliament.

15 © 2015 Ipsos.

0

20

40

60

80

100M

ay '0

9

No

v '0

9

May

'10

No

v '1

0

May

'11

No

v '1

1

May

'12

No

v '1

2

May

'13

No

v '1

3

May

'14

No

v '1

4

May

'15

No

v '1

5

May

'16

No

v '1

6

* Khayabus May 2009 - Dec 2016, F2F interviews, nationally representative

WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE COUNTRY IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR IN THE WRONG DIRECTION?*

%

RIGHT WRONG

16 © 2015 Ipsos.

0% 100%

53% say the country is going in the wrong direction (general public)*

0% 100%

The SA society is broken / in decline 77% (elites)**

*Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative**This is the highest in the world. World average 57% (Global @visor)

17 © 2015 Ipsos.

62.15

22.23

6.359.27

53.91

26.9

8.1911

5

22

10

54

63

26

812

MEASURING POLITICAL PARTY SUPPORT IN THE MIDST OF POPULIST POLITICS…. AN ART AND A SCIENCE*

NATIONAL ELECTION 2014 % LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION 2016 %

17 © 2017 Ipsos.

OTHER PARTIES

TOGETHER

OTHER PARTIES

TOGETHER

IPSOS PREDICTION % ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS %

*Khayabus, May 2014 , August 2016

18 © 2015 Ipsos.

40%

46%

40%

62%

40% “There is no political party that represent my views”

62% says that President Zuma is NOT doing his job well

46% says the National Government is not doing their job well

40% says Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa is not

doing his job well

Trust in leadership is lacking*

18 © 2017 Ipsos.

* Khayabus December 2016; 3,564 F2F interviews, nationally representative

19 © 2015 Ipsos.

DO NOT believe we need a strong leader

DO NOT think politicians should say what is on

their minds regardless of anyone else

Believe globalisation is an opportunity

AND 78% believe that we can recover

But

20 © 2015 Ipsos.20 © 2017 Ipsos.

Looking at the current mood in SA, civil society and other indicators, we are moving towards “post-populism” and are focusing on “truth”!

Many countries need to come to terms with “post–truth”, populist politicians & populism in society….

BEN

PAGE

CEOIPSOS MORI UK

@benatipsosmori

Was Brexit Populism?

23 © 2015 Ipsos.

Smells like populism….

NEW POLITICAL ACTOR

TURNOUT HIGHER IN LEAVE AREAS – AND 2015 NON-VOTERS SWUNG LEAVE BY 3:2

DISTRUST OF EXPERTS/ CULTURAL DIVIDE

Link between museum attendance and Remain voteSource: Dr Mark Taylor, Sheffield Methods Institute

Photo source: By Euro Realist Newsletter - flickr.com, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7670040

24 © 2015 Ipsos.

But if Brexit = populism then populism includes some pretty mainstream opinions….

25 © 2015 Ipsos.

Anti-Europeanism embedded for a long time

The UK has notbenefited from being part of the European UnionSource: Eurobarometer

1983

56%

2011

54%

26 © 2015 Ipsos.

And while immigration especially important to UKIP – all voters are worried about it

4,002 British adults 18+ online, 14-25 April 2016

54 64 55

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

Conservative Labour LibDem UKIP

% dissatisfied with the way the current govt is dealing with immigration

27 © 2015 Ipsos.

It lets the failures of the remain campaign off the hook

• Only 3 in 10 thought Brexit would harm their standard of living

• Leave messages much more believed

28Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

• Brits mid-table on most ‘populism’ measures

• And actually more in favour of foreign trade than most

• Still looks like the Conservatives – not UKIP – most likely to be the winners in 2020 (and little sign of a Labour populist surge either….)

In international terms, we remain more shopkeepers than revolutionaries…

HENRI

WALLARD GLOBAL CHAIRMANPUBLIC AFFAIRSIPSOS FRANCE

@henriwallard

30 © 2015 Ipsos.

Beyond populismFrance

31 © 2015 Ipsos.

Unemployment

ImmigrationConcerns

Authority

Decline Direction

32 © 2015 Ipsos.

OF THE FRENCH THINK THAT THE NEXT GENERATION WILL LIVE A WORSE LIFE

Les 4500, Observatoire Ipsos des modes de vie et de consommation, France, 2016.

66%

DeclineThe “Social lift” isstill not working

33 © 2015 Ipsos.

Rejection of foreigners Immigration

87% of the French believe the number of immigrants has been increasingover the last five years• Only 11% consider this has had a positive impact • 57% feel there are too many immigrants in the country

• 67 % think there are terrorists among the immigrants• 54 % believe that most of the people who declare themselves as refugees are not

really refugees• 63% think that refugees will not be successfully integrated

A Global @dvisory – June 2016 – G@ “Immigration”

34 © 2015 Ipsos.

A TRUE LEADER IS NEEDED TO BRING BACK SOME ORDER

Authority

AUTHORITY AS A VALUE IS TOO OFTEN CRITICISED

88%

87%

Authority

35 © 2015 Ipsos.

“THEY'RE ALL ROTTEN”

Populism Vs. Elitism

36 © 2015 Ipsos.

OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT MOST POLITICIANS ARE CORRUPT

OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT POLITICIANSDO NOT CARE WHAT PEOPLE THINK

88%OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THATPOLITICIANS ACT MAINLYFOR THEIR OWN PERSONAL INTERESTS

89%

Declinism

OF FRENCH PEOPLE THINK THAT FRANCEIS IN DECLINE

86%

Crisis of authority& exemplary behaviour

MistrustInternet turning intocounter-information

77%OF FRENCH PEOPLE NOT TRUST THE MEDIA

Fuelling Populism

“The system is broken”

75 %

37 © 2015 Ipsos.

2017 and later ?

NANDO

PAGNONCELLI

PRESIDENTIPSOS ITALY

@NPagnoncelli

39 © 2015 Ipsos.

POWER TO THE PEOPLE?

Beyond Populism

40 © 2015 Ipsos.

BACK TO THE FUTURE?THE EARLY SIGNS

SCENARIO: A POLITICAL CRISIS (corruption, bribes)

• A media tycoon, he claims his extraneousness from the political world, with its rites and its flaws

• He enters the political arena motivated by a sense of responsibility

• Primacy to the people has to be restored

• The people’s spokeperson, speaks a plain language

• Unites a social block

Ring a bell?

1994, SILVIO BERLUSCONI

41 © 2015 Ipsos.41

• Crisis

• Tycoon

• Sense of responsibility

• Primacy to the people

• Speaks a plain language

• Unites a social block

42 © 2015 Ipsos.© 2015 Ipsos.42

• Crisis

• Comedian

• Sense of responsibility

• Primacy to the people (in the internet)

• Speaks a plain language

• Unites a social block

AGAINST

44 © 2015 Ipsos.

GIACHETTIDEMOCRATIC PARTY

RAGGI5STARS MOVEMENT

67,1%

32,9%

A rift opensAGAINST THE POWERS

45 © 2015 Ipsos.© 2017 Ipsos

SALZBURGLINZ

WIEN

GRAZ

KLAGENFURT

INNSBRUCK

This is not only about ItalyAGAINST THE POWERS

46 © 2015 Ipsos.

EDINBURGH

MANCHESTER

LONDON

BIRMINGHAM

CARDIFF

BELFAST

LIVERPOOL

50% 80%

LEAVE

REMAIN

This is not only about ItalyAGAINST THE POWERS

49%

85%

65%

65%

64%

60%

57%

56%

56%

55%

54%

51%

50%

49%

44%

43%

43%

41%

40%

35%

33%

31%

12%

Totale

Turchia

Italia

Sud Africa

Russia

Belgio

Francia

Arabia Saudita

India

Ungheria

Argentina

Stati Uniti

Germania

Gran Bretagna

Australia

Svezia

Messico

Canada

Spagna

Brasile

Polonia

Sud Korea

Giappone

strongly + fairly agree

“There are too many immigrants in our Country”

44%79%

67%65%

63%62%62%

60%60%

56%56%

53%53%

47%46%

45%41%

36%34%

31%31%

30%29%

23%22%22%

20%11%

8%

EU28

EL

BG

IT

SI

HR

CY

ES

RO

LT

HU

FR

SK

PT

LV

CZ

EE

PL

AT

BE

MT

UK

DE

IE

NL

FI

SE

LU

DK

“Satisfied with the way democracy works in your Country?

Source : Global @dvisor Source: Eurobarometer

IMMIGRATION AND POLITICS: worries transformed into success factors

% not satisfied

48 © 2015 Ipsos.

Enemies, audience and keywordsAGAINST THE SYSTEM

The ENEMIESEuro and EU

Finance, BanksExperts

DIRECT DEMOCRACY

INTERNET

SOVEREIGNTY

The AUDIENCE

SME’s, artisans, workers,

unemployed

POLITICIANSIMMIGRANTS

IMMIGRATION

ITALIANS FIRST CORRUPTION

49 © 2015 Ipsos.

The Excluded: the electors profile of Lega and M5SAGAINST THE SYSTEM

Young and adultsAdults

Workers and self-employedUnemployed, students

Workers and self-employed

Medium – lower educated

Medium – lower educated

Small towns inhabitants

Men

50 © 2015 Ipsos.Source: Ipsos

57

52

48

47

45

43

38

Senators number cut: 315 to100

Closure of National Economy& Labour Counsel

Limitation of Senate powers

Change in the rules ofreferendums

Elimination of Provinces

Combined legislative powersGov and Regions

Elections of Senators

4041424342

27-Oct-1620-Oct-1613-Oct-1606-Oct-1629-Sep-16

The issues at stake in the Italian referendumFOR OR AGAINST THE CHANGE?

% agreeISSUES OVERALL

51 © 2015 Ipsos.

What was the Italian referendum really about? FOR OR AGAINST ME!

YES 40,9% NO 59,1%

52 © 2015 Ipsos.

One question

53 © 2015 Ipsos.

Who’s the populist, now? BEYOND POPULISM

“The CEO of Goldman Sachs let his employees know that he’d be just fine with either Bush or Clinton.Well, I’ve got news for the bullies of Wall Street. The presidency is not a crown to be passed back and forth by you between two royal families.”

Do not ask politicians to cut their budgets. Do it yourself.

Vote YES ! WE WILL SAVE 500 MILLION € PER YEAR

DARRELL

BRICKER

GLOBAL CEOPUBLIC AFFAIRSIPSOS CANADA

@darrellbricker

55 © 2015 Ipsos.

THE VIEW FROM CANADA: FINAL THOUGHTS

56 © 2015 Ipsos.56

57 © 2015 Ipsos.

58 © 2015 Ipsos.

The Canadian Exception?

• Canadians value compromise and tolerance. How weak, young nation stays together.

• Values have evolved over time – not specific to this current government or leader.

• These values not central to outcome of last election.

• “Great Economic Disruption” of 2008 missed Canada. Inequality issue less salient.

• Canada brings in most immigrants per capita. But, mostly economic, not humanitarian. Nothing new.

• All drivers of disruption more muted. Not seeking radical political solutions.

• Confluence of events plus poor management could create Canadian version of what is happening elsewhere. But, it will always be a Canadian version.

59 © 2015 Ipsos.

There’s something happening here.

What it is ain’t exactly clear.

For What It’s WorthBuffalo Springfield. 1967

60 © 2015 Ipsos.

Populism

61 © 2015 Ipsos.

What Does It Add Up To?

• More than populism – need a new term.

• Combination of forces - nativism, system is broken, rejection of authority and expertise, end of progress, leading to disruptive elections and unexpected political outcomes.

• Given universality of forces, setting up for on-going period of political uncertainty and instability.

62 © 2015 Ipsos.

Some big tests ahead

• March: Netherlands

• May: France

• September: Germany

• By December: South Korea

• 2018 (or earlier): Italy

63 © 2015 Ipsos.

All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”

Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina

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