Beyond Physical Risk: A Toolkit for Integrated Risk Assessment

Dr. Christopher G. Burton, Dr. Bijan Khazai, Dr. James Daniell, Johannes Anhorn, Sevgi Ozcebe, Christopher Power

June 30, 2014 – Understanding Risk, London

Presenter

Presentation Notes

GEM Scientific Framework

Ozcebe, Crowley, and Burton 2014

Physical Risk

Social Vulnerability

Integrated Risk

Presenter

Presentation Notes

--Sub Province Level Average Annual Economic Loss Social Vulnerability (13) --Aggravation Factor

Physical Seismic Risk Social Vulnerability Integrated Risk

Burton and Silva 2014

Presenter

Presentation Notes

How are we getting there and where do we go from here?

How to represent concepts of social vulnerability and integrated risk?

Data

Presenter

Presentation Notes

***Data, data, everywhere, butt……… --How do we bring all the theory, data, and metrics together under one framework applicable at various levels of geography?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

--National Level Database for the world --Subnational Level Database for Asia Pacific provinces (19 countries) --Subnational database for South America (SARA)

Social and Economic Vulnerability Database

Socio-Economic Database

Statistical Approach

Expert Opinion Approach

CorrelationsAnalysis

Completeness

Consultation

Pre-PCA data Processing

Principal Components Analysis

Social and Economic Vulnerability Database

Power et al. 2014

Linking Users to the Social and Economic Vulnerability Database

Geographically small countries with rapid GDP growth (3.6 – 6.3%) contain a high percentage of foreigners.

Social Vulnerability Data Analysis

The complex relationship between urbanization and poverty

Power et al. 2014 Power et al. 2014

10CEDIM – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology GEM – Global Earthquake Model SAI – Heidelberg University

How can we operationalize concepts of social vulnerability and integrated

risk?

Open-Source Tool Development

Presenter

Presentation Notes

---How do we develop a tool that supports both top-down and bottom-up approaches to index development? --Criticisms of many indicator studies is they fail to account for stakeholder input, and are over SIMPLIFIED. --What do you do in data poor context?

Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit: User Data Inputs

Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit: Stakeholder Derived Weighting

Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit: Risk Integration

Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit: Risk Aggregation

SVIR Data Viewer

Title of slide image can go here

Localize

Assess

Make Decisions

Monitor Output

Self-evaluation Tool for Earthquake Resilience

Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014

Presenter

Presentation Notes

OVERALL GOAL To provide city managers a participatory tool to evaluate and monitor resilience to earthquakes To identify strengths and weaknesses in resilience and produce results which are comparable over time EXPECTED OUTCOMES Localized scorecard for LSMC to show adaptability and long-term use To identify gaps in key thematic areas of resilience To foster discussion and communication among decision-makers, planners, and disaster risk reduction specialists Share lessons and transfer knowledge and capacities within LSMC and among Wards

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Presentation Notes

--Discuss trips leading up to workshop for context specific questions --Discuss Day 1: 20 out of 22 Wards (Captains, ex Captains, Secretary) --Discuss Day 2: Department Heads (Police, Planning, Community Development, Public Works, Finance, Legal, etc.) --Hand held recievers --Both brought together

Adapt

Cope

Trans-form

Key Dimensions of Urban Resilience

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Presentation Notes

--Resilience is considered a multi-dimensional concept that is visible at multiple levels of a city environment. --Highly dynamic and therefore needs a multi-stage approach to be assessed. --We have defined six main themes of urban resiliency which can be addressed through the scorecard and are derived from the HFA and the UNISDR ten essentials Legal & Institutional Arrangements Social Capacity Critical Services and Public Infrastructure Resiliency Emergency Preparedness, Response and Recovery Planning, Regulation and Mainstreaming Risk Mitigation Awareness and Advocacy

Yes

Strong

Excellent

Good

Weak

No

City Level

Sub-City Level

Awareness &

Advocacy

Social Capacity

Legal and Institutional

Planning and Regulation

Critical Infrastructure and Services

Emergency Preparedness &

Response

Presenter

Presentation Notes

--36 Questions along 6 thematic areas --Drafted from UNISR 10 Essentials for Making Cities Resilient --Added Social Capacity (i.e. capacity to prepare for, adapt to, and recover from potential earthquake events).

Identifying the gaps: What areas can be Improved?

Dr. Christopher G. Burtonchristopher.burton@globalquakemodel.org+39-0382-5169898

Dr. Bijan Khazaikhazai@kit.eduTel.: +49 -721-608 44442

Questions

mailto:christopher.burton@globalquakemodel.org

mailto:khazai@kit.edu

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org

http://www.globalearthquakemodel.org/

Beyond Physical Risk: A Toolkit for Integrated Risk Assessment

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