Wills World Renewable Energy Congress 8 feb17

Climate Change Policies, Emissions Trajectories & Renewable Energy Solutions

@ProfRayWills

Prof Ray Wills

Managing DirectorFuture Smart Strategies

Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia

Roger’s diffusion curve

@ProfRayWills

The Big Bang Theory

@ProfRayWills

A Brief Moment in Time

Predicting anything is difficult

@ProfRayWills

Predicting anything is difficult

@ProfRayWills

And don’t forget the old tech exit

Understand difference between linear growth and exponential growth …n = % growth rate, 70/n years; So n = 1% doubling time is 70/1 = 70 years n = 2% doubling time is 70/2 = 35 years n = 5% doubling time is 70/5 = 14 years n = 7% doubling time is 70/7 = 10 years n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years n = 20% doubling time is 70/20 = 3.5 years n = 30% doubling time is 70/35 = 2 years

@ProfRayWills

Declining PV price

Bloomberg NEF

Understand difference between linear growth and exponential growth …n = % growth rate, 70/n years; So n = 1% doubling time is 70/1 = 70 years n = 2% doubling time is 70/2 = 35 years n = 5% doubling time is 70/5 = 14 years n = 7% doubling time is 70/7 = 10 years n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years n = 20% doubling time is 70/20 = 3.5 years n = 35% doubling time is 70/35 = 2 years

Solar increased 36% pa - 8 fold in 7 years, 2009 to 2016

@ProfRayWills

Solar rising – by fallingunderstanding exponential growth

@ProfRayWills

Solar rising – by fallingunderstanding exponential growth

@ProfRayWills

Global renewables growth …

@ProfRayWills

Global renewables growth and forecast

@ProfRayWills

Build it more cheaply

@ProfRayWills

Build it more quickly

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Global electricity generation capacity

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Global electricity generation capacity

@ProfRayWills

Electricity gen - where it’s needed

Electricity generation – IEA Total

n = 10% doubling time is 70/10 = 7 years

Electricity generation - Europe

epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

Electricity generation - #Brexit

Electricity generation - Australia

Aus Carbon Price

Forecasts not based on experience

This is

poor scie

nce

And poorly in

forms

Policy o

utcomes

Forecasts not based on experience

This is

poor scie

nce

And poorly in

forms

Policy o

utcomes

Forecasts not based on observed data

This is

poor scie

nce

And poorly in

forms

Policy o

utcomes

China electricity generation additions

Forecasts based on science and data

Forecasts based on science and data

Nature Geoscience

US energy sources changing

US energy sources changing

Change in Energy

@ProfRayWills

Solar gen 1 (gen 2, gen 3, … ) 1st gen solar cell made from silicon

2nd gen solar cell thin-films 1st gen solar panels ‘fixed-on’

2nd gen emerging – building material: < cost labour, material 3rd gen solar cell – may be nanotubes, silicon wires, organic

dyes, and conductive plastics – lead to solar inks for printing, solar paint on any surface, personal wearables.

@ProfRayWills

Global renewables

Global renewables growth and forecast

@ProfRayWills

Global renewables growth and forecast

@ProfRayWills

Batteries – home storage + EVs

Change in Energy

@ProfRayWills

Solar as just another consumer product

We still need governments to act …

Cities also drive change

We need governments to act – but… Corporate social responsibility also drives change –

because empowered customers will accelerate change

Google, Amazon, Microsoft, IBM and Facebook formed an alliance to address the ethical issues.

@ProfRayWills

Individuals can act …

@ProfRayWills

New technology iterating faster - continuous increase in energy efficiency, rapid, exponential (non-linear) growth of renewables.

Investment and build of renewable generation capacity has eclipsed investment on fossil fuel generation

Changes in generation mix with intrusion of renewables impacts long held metrics of capital cost effectiveness of capacity factor for fossil fuel electricity generation.

Planners in traditional energy technology seem unprepared for change, not based on observations in past perturbations in energy markets.

Emissions reductions mechanisms still being pursued.

Global renewables growth and forecast

Forecasts of energy markets varied in timeline – but all predict coming dominance of renewable energy.

Rapid emergence + convergence of complementary technologies: energy storage, electrification of transport, and self-driving vehicles – and integrated in the emergence of ‘smart cities’ – all delivering additionality to momentum for change.

Sophistication of developing energy control systems changing paradigm of what is possible in 21stC

Multiple agents of change: not just government, but also business, consumer, and community drivers add much political pressure especially through social media channels.

Global renewables growth and forecast

World’s largest … taxi company owns no taxis (Uber) hotel chain owns no property (AirBnB) telcos own no wires (Skype, WeChat) retailers own no stock (Ebay, Alibaba) financial houses that hold no currency (PayPal) media service creates no content (Facebook) movie house owns no cinemas (Netflix) software vendors don’t write apps (Apple, Google)Will largest energy companies generate no energy?What other businesses will go virtual? (Can everything?)

Battlefield is slickest customer interface + experience

@ProfRayWills

WA’s largest … Sun Brilliance 100MW+ DC 165ha farm Cunderdin

WA wheatbelt, east of Perth Development to break new

ground on a number of fronts in the Australian – and global - solar market

Not shutting capacity – taking it

@ProfRayWills

@ProfRayWills