African livestock futures: Realizing the potential of livestock for poverty alleviation, food...

African  Livestock  Futures:  Realizing  the  poten9al  of  livestock  for  poverty  allevia9on,  food  security  and  the  environment  

AU-­‐IBAR  –  17  SEPTEMBER  2014  

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–  Background

–  Methods –  The models

–  The scenarios

–  Key findings

–  Policy recommendations

Structure of the presentation

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–  Study commissioned by the Special Representative to the UN Secretary General on Food Security and Nutrition (David Nabarro)

–  Funding from USAID

Background

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–  Mario Herrero (CSIRO, Lead author)

–  Petr Havlik, Amanda Palazzo and Hugo Valin (IIASA)

–  John McIntire (ILRI)

The authors

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–  Berhe Tekola, Juan Lubroth and Henning Steinfeld (FAO)

–  Kazuaki Megayishima (WHO)

–  Bernard Vallat and Alain Dehove (OIE)

–  Jimmy Smith (ILRI)

–  Francois Legall (World Bank)

–  Dennis Carroll, August Pabst and Joyce Turk (USAID)

–  Sam Thevasagayam (BMGF)

–  Siwa Msangi (IFPRI)

Steering committee and reviewers

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–  How could we enhance the contribution of African livestock systems to sustainably meet the future demand for livestock products?

–  What would be the consequences of different socio-economic development scenarios?

–  Can competitiveness be increased?

–  What would be the risks?

–  What would be key policies?

The central questions

Methods  

GLOBIOM:  Global  Biosphere  Management  Model    

Par9al  equilibrium  model:  Agriculture,  Forestry,  Bioenergy  

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DEMAND  

SUPPLY  

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Shared  Socio-­‐Economic  Pathways  Scenarios  

SSP  scenarios:  the  basics  

Some  key  inputs  

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Key  findings  

Milk  consump3on  likely  to  triple  in  East  Africa    Overall,  poultry  consump3on  exhibits  the  highest  rates  of  growth  throughout  SSA  

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Milk  consump3on  likely  to  triple  in  East  Africa    Overall,  poultry  consump3on  exhibits  the  highest  rates  of  growth  throughout  SSA    The  consump3on  of  meat  from  monogastrics  will  exceeed  red  meat  consump3on  by  2030  in  most  sub-­‐regions  of  SSA  

Dietary  shiTs  in  full  swing!  

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Sustainable  intensifica3on  will  be  key  to  elicit  a  produc3on  response  in  most  regions…      

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–  Sustainable intensification (SSP1): > 5-6%/yr

–  Business as usual (SSP2): 2-3%/yr

–  Fragmentation scenario: 1.5-2.5%yr

–  Almost similar numbers of animals

–  Largest differences explained by increases in yield

Rates of growth of livestock production

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Kenyan milk yield average: 600 kg/lactation

In 20 years at 6%/yr growth rate: 1815 kg/lactation

We need to triple milk yields to be in the game!

The same applies to monogastrics! = most growth coming from larger operations

What does this really mean?

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Policy  recommenda3ons  

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–  Invest in the sustainable intensification of African livestock systems (need to achieve rates of annual growth in productivity of around 6% per year)

–  Towards an economic incentives package?

–  Interest free credit

–  Reduced taxes on inputs

–  Preferential conditions of investment for certain types of systems

–  Some scope to increase intensive monogastric production

Policy recommendations

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–  Invest in the provision of feeds (feed markets, improved pasture species, etc)

–  Invest in land use planning

–  Regulate externalities of intensification

–  Protect smallholders and pastoralists: they can contribute!

–  Invest in animal health research

–  Reduce environmental impacts

Policy recommendations

Africa’s  challenges  are  daun9ng  but  there  are  posi9ve  signs  of  innova9on  ....  

•  Of  the  20  countries  worldwide  that  had  more  than  10%  of  adults  using  mobile  phone  banking,  15  were  in  Africa  .  

•  In  Kenya,  68%  of  adults  used  mobile  banking  in  2011  

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§ hTp://www.economist.com/node/21553510  

Innova3on  comes  in  surprising  ways      

 •  Sustainably  building  African  ins3tu3ons  and  science  capability  is  the  main  game  

Thank  you  Mario  Herrero  Chief  Research  Scien3st  

Agriculture  Flagship  

e  mario.herrero@csiro.au