2016 conservation track: ecological and social resilience to climate variability the case of the...

Ecological and Social Resilience to Climate VariabilityThe case of the bourgou floodplain vegetation (Echinochloa stagnina) of the Inland Niger Delta in Central Mali

Hannah FriedrichAdvisor: Matthew Turner

June 22, 2016

Hannah FriedrichAdvisor: Dr. Matthew Turner

People to Pixel

Inland Niger Delta in Central MaliPhoto Credit: MODIS Rapid Response Team

Source: NOAA NCDC

Photo Credit: Matthew Turner

Photo Credit: Matthew Turner

Conservation Actors

Fulani Pastoralists

Bozo FishermanNGOs

BourgouRegeneration

Research Questions

1) To what extent has the bourgou floodplain recovered since the extreme drought events in the 1980’s?

2.) What impact do human land uses have on this recovery?

Objectives

> Create seasonal change maps of vegetation and water

> Analyze EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) of yearly imagery

> Identify significant bourgou regeneration

> Link vegetation regeneration to human land use decisions

Significance

> Hydrologically complex ecosystem home to many species

> Bourgou is a “commons” - shared amongst communities

> Conservation has potential played a role, but to what extent?

> Future conservation efforts

Study Area

Seasonal Change Detection Maps

Dry Season Image

Wet SeasonImage

Acca Hydrology Station

Support Vector MachineChange Detection

Class SchemeStable Bare Ground

Stable WaterStable VegetationVegetated to Bare

GroundFloodplain to Flooded

Water to Vegetated

Stable Bare Ground

Stable Vegetation

Stable Water

Water to Vegetated

Vegetated to Bare Ground

Floodplain to Flooded

Dry to Wet Season Change Map

Stable Water Stable Bare Ground

Stable Vegetation

Vegetated to Bare Ground

Water to Vegetation

Floodplain to Flooded Total

Stable Water 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Stable Bare

Ground0 80.36% (45) 0 0 0 33.33%

(7)65.82%

(52)

Stable Vegetat

ion0 0

100%(1) 0 0 0 1.27%

(1)

Vegetated to Bare

Ground

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Water to

Vegetation

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Floodplain to

Flooded0 19.64% (11) 0 100%

(1) 0 66.67%(14)

32.91%(26)

Total 0 100%(56)

100%(1)

100%(1) 0 100%

(21)100%(79)

Overall Accuracy =

75.9494%

EVI Analysis

Analyze yearly EVI imagery

Google Earth Engine

1984

2015

Significant EVI Increase

Increase in EVI

Ongoing Research - Dense time stack EVI analysis

Scenario 1:EVI < Z in Year X-1 and EVI > Z in Year X

Scenario 2:EVI < Z in Year X-1 and Year X-2 and EVI > Z in Year X

Scenario 3:EVI < Z in Year X-1 and Year X-2 followed by EVI > Y in Year X

Limitations

> Missing data in the 1990’s

> Vegetation diversity - bourgou as an individual species is difficult to pin-point

Ongoing Research - Multi-sited village surveys, individual interviews,

bourgou site regeneration interviews

Where has bourgou re-established?

> Technique used

> Over what time period?

> Who is involved?

> Resources available to those involved?

Describe NGO involvement.

Ongoing Research - In situ ground surveys

Youvarou - Case Study

Conservation in Youvarou

> Managed by herder cooperatives

> Transplanting most effective method of regeneration

> Mixed responses of development organization involvement

> On the ground, regeneration seen as successful

Conclusion - People to Pixel

> Synthesize interview data with regeneration trends - multivariate statistics

> Link EVI data with history of land use change - track conservation using RS

Thank you! Questions?

hannahfriedrich14@gmail.com