Andrew Maynard: Where Do We Go From Here?

...and the Art of Technology Innovation

Small Gods...

Andrew D. MaynardDirector, Risk Science Center

University of Michigan School of Public Health

Cincinnati Contemporary Arts Center, December 11 2010

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

“The future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves”

John Connor, Terminator 2: Judgement Day, 1991

Risk: The likelihood of adverse consequences arising from actions or events

Risk: Deconstructed

Cause Effect

Risk: Deconstructed

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Action

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Action Consequences

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Action ConsequencesBeneficial

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Decision

Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Decision Ramifications

Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Decision RamificationsConstructive

Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Destructive

Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Destructive

Harmful

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Destructive

Harmful(Inaction)

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

Destructive(Indecision)

Harmful(Inaction)

Cause EffectGood

Risk: Deconstructed

The Eruption of Mt. Vesuvius. Pierre-Jacques Volaire, 1777

Sheffield, circa 1874. Source: LIFE

December 3, 1984: Victims on a Bhopal street

PRAKASH HATVALNE/AP

Felice C. Frankel and George M. WhitesidesNo Small Matter: Science on the Nanoscale

Phantoms…Faced with something unfamiliar, we are simultaneously curious and afraid. To remind us to be careful, we construct things that go bump in the night—phantoms, trolls, chain-saw movies.

This field of shimmering light, with unrecognizeable shapes inside, could be anything; best to assume it’s dangerous! (It is, in fact, a fountain playing over rocks; but no matter.) We treat new technologies in the same way. At the beginnig, they are all dangerous: fire, the book, steam engines, genetically engineered bacteria, nanotechnology. But with enough familiarity, we ignore even truly dangerous ones—nuclear weapons, ubiquitous surveillance, smoking, drinking, the sports channel on TV.

Felice C. Frankel and George M. WhitesidesNo Small Matter: Science on the Nanoscale

Last Century’s Risk challenge:

How do we prevent human instincts causing more harm than good in a technology-driven world?

Science:

Observation, prediction,

testing and re-evaluation

Science:

Evidence-based decisions and actions

Science:

Independent and self-correcting

Science:

Independent and self-correcting

Science takes

the instinct

out of what we do

Risk Science:

Science that supports evidence-informed approaches to risk

Risk Science:

A systematic approach to evaluating and addressing risk

Risk Science:

A means of separating risk-related decisions and actions from potentially harmful instinctive responses

Risk Science:

A means of separating risk-related decisions and actions from potentially harmful instinctive responses

But is this eno

Risk Science: In the 21st Century

Risk Science:

Coupling

In the 21st Century

Risk Science:

Coupling

Communication

In the 21st Century

Risk Science:

Coupling

Communication

Control

In the 21st Century

Coupling

Estimated change in sea surface acidity caused between the 1700s and the 1990s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:WOA05_GLODAP_del_pH_AYool.png

The Colorado river running through Marble Canyon

http://www.flickr.com/photos/77145662@N00/5014081890/

Photo: Andy Gupta

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rotia/619256949/sizes/o/in/photostream/

auriaz

Communication

http://www.neuroproductions.be/

One week’s Twitter conversations initiated by @boraz (Bora Zivkovic)

http://socialcollider.net/

Last of 33 Chilean miners to be rescued. Washington Post

Control

Keith DW. 2010. Photophoretic levitation of engineered aerosols for geoengineering. PNAS 107(38): 16429-31.

AlBaTiO3

Photophoretic levitation

Gravitational alignment

Reflected sunlight

10 µm

Geoengineering

Martin Philbert and Raoul Kopelman

Nanomedicine

J. Craig Venter Institute

Mycoplasma mycoides JCVI-syn1

Gibson DG, Glass JI, Lartigue C, Noskov VN, Chuang R-Y, Algire MA, et al. 2010. Creation of a Bacterial Cell Controlled by a Chemically Synthesized Genome.

Science 329(5987): 52-56.

Synthetic biology

Concept: Drew EndyTuesday, December 21, 2010

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew EndyTuesday, December 21, 2010

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

Natural Selection

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

Natural Selection Breeding

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

Natural Selection Breeding Biotechnology

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

DIGITAL CODE DIGITAL DOMAIN

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Re-arrange

Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Re-arrange Write

Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Re-arrange Write Debug

Sequencing

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

DNA PHYSICAL DOMAIN

Re-arrange Write Debug

Sequencing Synthesis

Concept: Drew Endy

Information Flow

Bayley H. 2010. Nanotechnology: Holes with an edge. Nature 467(7312): 164-165.

Sequencing the Human Genome

Human Genome Project

1988 - 2001

13 years1988 - 2001

13 years

James Watson

1988 - 2001

13 years

James Watson

1988 - 2001 2007

13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007

13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007

The near future?

13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007 2013

The near future?

13 years

James Watson

2 months1988 - 2001 2007

3 minutes2013

The near future?

Science 291:5507, pp. 1304-1351, 2001. doi: 10.1126/science.1058040

Nature, 1 June 2007. doi:10.1038/news070528-10

Nature, 6 February 2009. doi:10.1038/news.2009.86

Coupling

Communication

Coupling

Communication

Control

Coupling

Communication

Control

?Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Five Pressure-Point Technologies:

Bio-constructionViruses programmed to build new materials

Five Pressure-Point Technologies: Synthetic biology

Digitally designing “life” and downloading it into reality

GeoengineeringPlanet-wide climate intervention

Machine-human interfaces

Better-than-human?

Machine-human interfaces

Better-than-human?Cognitive enhancersDesigner drugs for aspiring high achievers

The 20th century Risk challenge:

How do we prevent human instincts causing more harm than good in a technologically complex world?

The 21st century Risk challenge:

How do we ensure evidence-informed, socially-responsive and proactive risk-decisions in a highly complex, interconnected and interdependent world?

Drivers of change:

Complexity: Agents of harm are increasingly complex, and innovation cycle so fast that established linear, reactive approaches to addressing risk are failing

Drivers of change:

Interconnectedness: Increasingly complex local and global relationships between decisions and their ramifications

Drivers of change:

Interconnectedness: Increasingly complex local and global relationships between decisions and their ramifications

Distributed decision-making: Non-traditional decision-influencers and decision-makers are becoming increasingly influential, including citizens

Drivers of change:

The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. Douglas Adams. BBC, 1981

Andrew D. MaynardDirector, Risk Science Center

University of Michigan School of Public Health1415 Washington Heights

SPH I Room 1792Ann Arbor, MI 48109

Email: maynarda@umich.edu

Contact: Hilda McDonald, Tel: 734-615-3050, Email: hildiris@umich.edu

Risk Science Center: http://umriskcenter.orgBlog: http://2020science.org

Twitter: http://twitter.com/2020science

Andrew Maynard: Where Do We Go From Here?

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