View
2.598
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project Carbon Balance Verification
Citation preview
Available Software Tools for Land Use GHG Inventories and Project
Carbon Balance Verification
Mark Easter Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory
Colorado State UniversityFort Collins, Colorado USAmark.easter@colostate.edu
www.nrel.colostate.edu
Collaborators:Keith Paustian, Stephen Ogle, Rich Conant, Ken Killian, Kris Peterson, Steve Williams, Dean Selby, Amy Swan, Shannon Spencer & the GEFSOC team.
Funding: GEF/UNEP, US EPA, US USDA-NRCS
Carbon Benefits ProjectSystem Overview
Measurement ProtocolModule
Guidance Module
Activity Data Module
Reporting and AuxiliaryModule
Measurement Data Module
Remote sensing
Ground-based measurements
Calculation Module
IPCC Tier 1 & 2
GEFSOC models
Bayesian/LME models
Information and workflows
Project Description Module
Text input
Geographic input
Socioeconomic Module
Data
Models
Overview
• System Design Issues• Leveraging Existing Technologies to meet Project
Objectives– COMET– ALU– GEFSOC– Uncertainty Analysis
• System Requirements
System Design Issues
Geographic Scope
Community-based~10 km2
China Projects
Landscape Scale~ 100,000 km2
Brazilian AmazonNiger/Nigeria
Watershed/Catchment~1,000 - 10,000 km2
Kenya Projects
Land Use / Mgmt Change
Dominated by a Single LM ShiftChina Projects
Complex, DynamicLand Use & Mgmt Changes
All Others
System Design Issues
GEFProject
ObjectivesLandImprovement
Socio-Political
EconomicImprovements
Capacity-Building
SystemUsersGEF
Program Officers
Project Managers at All Project Stages Community Groups in
Sustainable Land Mgmt Interventions
GHG Benefits& Uncertainty
ProjectResources
EconomicFactors
MeasurementUncertainty
Model/Classification Uncertainty
System Design• COMET-like interface & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting
• Small land areas• Straightforward land use transitions• Limited number of soil and climate types• Limited Uncertainty Analysis
• ALU system & IPCC method for Tier 1/2 reporting• Moderate to large land areas• Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions• Multiple climate/soil combinations• Limited Uncertainty Analysis
• ALU (front end) + GEFSOC modeling system (back end) for Tier 3 reporting approach
• Moderate to large land areas• Dynamic land use/mgmt transitions• Multiple climate/soil combinations• Economic factors favor tier 3 inventory• Advanced Uncertainty Analysis using Monte Carlo Method
China Projects
All OtherProjects
AmazonNiger/Nigeria
Existing Technologies
COMET-VRALU GEFSOC
n=1
∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000
Uncertainty Analysis
What is ALU? • Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) National Greenhouse Gas
Inventory Software Program– Second generation of software, originally called CAALU– Supports national reporting to the UNFCCC
• Data Collection and GHG Calculation tool designed to estimate GHG emissions from source categories in Agriculture and LULUCF– IPCC GHG Inventory methods (96 GL, 2000 GPG, 2003 GPG
LULUCF, 2006 GL)• User-friendly interface guiding user through inventory process using
IPCC recommended good practices– Makes process more transparent than textual guidance and
worksheets alone• Extends design of IPCC worksheets interactive guidance and data
management capabilities
Why is ALU Needed?
Reporting ErrorsInventories Incomplete
MultipleScientific
Committees
Eighty-two GHG flux
calculations
Eight GHG Source
Categories
Mixtureof Reporting
Units
ConflictingInventoryMethods
Twenty-Eight GHG Sub-source
Categories380+
EquationFactors
The ALU Project
• A way forward to improve application of IPCC methods for GHG Inventories in Agriculture and LULUCF Sectors
• Arguably most complicated sectors for GHG inventory assessment
• Important sectors in non-Annex I countries: Deforestation, Livestock Management, Rice Management, Fertilizer Use
The ALU Project, cont’d
ALU System
Grassland Management
Cropland Management
Land Use
Forestland Management
• Data management capability– Activity data, factor files, emission results– Utilize GIS-based data on land use and land use change
derived from remote sensing imagery - Option
• Digital archive of all data and results– Self-contained database with activity data, documentation
references and results – Institutional memory for long-term sustainability of GHG
inventory
• Support reporting to the UNFCCC through capacity-building project
The ALU Project, cont’d
Activity Data Requirements
• Land use data – Approach 1 Activity Data: Forest Lands, Croplands,
Grasslands, Settlements, Wetlands and Other Lands
– By climate region and soil type
• Land management and associated data– Croplands, grasslands, forest lands and settlements
• Livestock – Basic Characterization
• Population numbers
– Manure management• Dry lot, Pasture/Range Paddock, digesters, lagoons etc.
Activity Data Requirements (cont.)• Nitrogen fertilizer, carbonate lime (limestone and
dolomite) and sewage sludge additions to soils• Rice management
– Water table management and organic amendment rates
• Crop residues– Crop yields to estimate residue amounts– Crop-specific residue to yield ratios
• Biomass C Loss– Timber harvest – Fuelwood gathering– Stand-replacing disturbances
• fires, pest outbreaks, typhoons, etc.
– Deforestation
Optional Activity Data
• A variety of options are provided to incorporate country-specific data
• Option to use Approach 2 and 3 Activity Data - Land Use Change Categories
• Country-specific climate, soil and land use subcategories
• Option for an Enhanced characterization of livestock– Tier 2 emission factors for enteric and manure methane
• Country-specific livestock nitrogen excretion rates
• Settlement tree species and cover for biomass C stock change estimates
Emission/Stock Change Factors
• Defaults (provided in ALU) or country-specific values• Biomass C growth and loss factors• Soil stock change factors and reference C stocks
• Soil N2O emission factors
• Enteric CH4 emission factors
• Manure methane and N2O emission factors
• Biomass burning factors for non-CO2 GHG emissions
• Rice CH4 emission factors
ALU Form Flow – Primary Land Use Data
ALU Database
ALU Current Status• Software Beta version currently in demonstration and
testing phase, final development• Software Beta version release: July, 2009• Version 2 release: September, 2009• Begin version 3 development Summer, 2009
– Allow comparison of land use scenarios– Expanded GIS import support– Build IPCC default datasets for other world regions
Software Web Site:http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects
/ghgtool/
Existing Technologies
COMET-VRALU GEFSOC
n=1
∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000
Uncertainty Analysis
COMET-VR & COMET-FARM
Web-based Decision Support Tool
• Provides rapid assessment of GHG impacts of land use & mgmt scenarios
• CO2 from CENTURY model
• Cropland N2O from DAYCENT-based metamodel, IPCC
• Livestock CH4/N2O from IPCC
• Emissions from fuel use per IPCC defaults
COMET CharacteristicsCOMET-VR• Has been deployed for four years• User first specifies state, county, soil texture/hydric condition• User then selects pre-populated crop rotations and tillage• System returns CO2 and N2O flux estimates and CO2 uncertainty
COMET-FARM• Farm/Enterprise-scale version of COMET-VR + livestock & energy• In development, Alpha release September, 2009• User draws in field boundaries and livestock herd/flock locations• State/county/soil data pulled from GIS coverages• System returns full GHG budget for farm/enterprise
COMET-VR Screen Shots
COMET-VR Screen Shots
COMET-VR Screen Shots
COMET-VR Screen Shots
COMET-VR Screen Shots
COMET-Like IPCC-Based Decision Support Tool
Select Factor Dataset• Equatorial Africa• Central Asia• Latin America• Etc.
Define Activity Data, Calculate
Emissions
Select Inventory Category Synthetic Fertilizer
Land Use Livestock Liming Sewage Sludge
IPCC Land Use Climate & Soil
Define Land Use Category and Subcategory
Enter Activity Data, Calculate
Emissions
IPCC Livestock Climate & Soil
Define Livestock Category and Subcategory
Enter Activity Data, Calculate
Emissions
Software Web Site:http://www.cometvr.colostate.edu
Existing Technologies
COMET-VRALU GEFSOC
n=1
∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000
Uncertainty Analysis
• A system for regional/national level assessment of soil C dynamics
• The system is scaleable, with capabilities on the order of 108 soil-climate-management combinations.
• A system that is flexible; address a variety of other issues (e.g. soil sustainability, N and P dynamics, full GHG accounting, etc.) and capabilities (e.g. multiple models accommodated).
The GEFSOC System
Technical Overview
• Design Goals for the GEFSOC modeling system• Hardware and software components• Modeling and data components• Types of analysis possible
Modelling System Goals
• Use readily available hardware components
• Take advantage of open source software and shareware to
the maximum extent possible
• Use off-the-shelf software for tasks where open source
software is not available
• Utilize computer skills generally available within the
scientific community
• Link with SOTER and GIS
• Utilize land use data generally available
• Release the system as Open Source
Hardware and Software
Personal Computer or Workstation
Microsoft Windows 2000 or Microsoft Windows XP
Personal Computer, Workstation, or Server
Redhat LINUX
Network Connection on Private Network using
crossover cable or switch
Windows SoftwareMicrosoft Access (database)ESRI ArcView or ArgGIS or
otherActiveExperts ToolkitMySQL ODBC DriverMySQL AdministratorTextpad text file editor
Secure Shell Client
LINUX SoftwareCENTURY
RothCMySQL (database)
PERLPERL DBI
• Hardware all consists of off-the-shelf components• Most software is shareware and can be downloaded off
the web• Software that is not shareware is readily available and
relatively inexpensive
Software Components
GISMS Access Front End
MySQL Database Server
Modeling System (PERL)
CenturyRothC
IPCC (SQL)
Modeling System
• Data consist of separate, distinct GIS coverages
• Each represents key elements required to drive the models
• Goal is to produce a unique intersection of all of the coverages
• Polygon-based or grid-based approaches possible
Input Layers
Land Use/Mgmt
• Common problem in GHG Inventories: Land use data and histories dissociated from soil/climate data
• Land use sequences necessary to accurately assess current soil C stocks, change rates, scenarios
• How do we assess the area-extent of different land use transitions expressed within one land use polygon?
Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d
NF: Native ForestCSG: Cont small grainsDASG: dryland legume hay-small grainsFSG: fallow-small grainsFSGO: fallow-small grains-oilseedFSGM: fallow-small grains-milletCC: clearcut forestPC: partial timber cutFire: stand-replacing fireRF: Forest regenerating from fire or CC
Northern Rocky Mtn Foothills
Land Use/Mgmt, cont’d
• National & sub-National GHG Inventories Completed:– Brazilian Amazon
– Kenya
– Jordan
– Indo-Gangetic Plain of India
• Other National Inventories in Progress:– Spain
– Italy
Results, Amazon Basin
SOC stocks (t C ha-1)
kilometers0 250 500
SOC stocks (t C ha-1)
kilometers0 250 500
Modeled soil C stocks in the Amazon Basin, 1990
Source: Cerri et al. 2007.
Results, Amazon Basin
Modeled soil C stock changes by land use in the Amazon Basin, 1990-2030
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
NativeVegetation
Abandon area DegradedPasture
Well ManagedPasture
Soybean
19902000
2030
30000
20000
25000
SO
C (
Tg
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
NativeVegetation
Abandon area DegradedPasture
Well ManagedPasture
Soybean
19902000
2030
30000
20000
25000
SO
C (
Tg
)
Source: Cerri et al. 2007.
Software Web Site:http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/
projects/gefsoc-uk/
Existing Technologies
COMET-VRALU GEFSOC
n=1
∑ f(Time,Climate,Soil,LU,LM)1000
Uncertainty Analysis
Uncertainty Analysis
• Utilize published uncertainties in IPCC method
• Include capacity to update (+/-) statistical uncertainties of IPCC factors
• Add Structural and non-Structural Uncertainty Techniques from U.S. GHG Inventory
• Employ Monte Carlo Methods
System Requirements and Design• Vision and Scope: “The suite of tools will be available, with full instructions on how to use them, from a single website during and beyond the lifetime of a project.”
• Web-based tools to support the CBP Guidance Module.• System will provide user with GHG inventory based on project scenarios• Provide ample, useful instruction and help files to support users.• Build the system to last beyond the initial development and test period.
• Initial System Design Activities• Describe users• Develop User Interface Requirements• Define Deployment Platform• Assess Data Storage Requirements• Assess Internet and Data Security Needs• User Software Requirements• Assess performance needs
System Requirements and Design, Cont’d• Design and Development Risks
• Data Availability• Interface Development• Integration ALU Front-End with GEFSOC Modeling System• User satisfaction, system use-ability• Risks associated with parallel development of Guidance, Activity, Calculation, and Reporting Modules
• Design Process Goals (we proposing using the “Scrum” method):• Rapid, iterative development of many smaller project sections• Frequent assessment of project status• Design process and status transparency• Frequent interaction and communication between scientists, developers, client group
Mark Easter Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory
Colorado State UniversityFort Collins, Colorado USAmark . easter@colostate.edu
www.nrel.colostate.edu
Recommended