Bear River Area Economic Update

Bear River Area

Economic Update

By: Ivy Austria

Northern Regional Economist

Utah Department of Workforce Services

September 5th, 2012

Agenda

• Executive Summary

• Outlook for the Bear River Area

• National and Statewide

Employment

• Employment & Unemployment, and

Other Economic Indicators for: Box

Elder, Cache and Rich

Executive Summary

• As of July 2012, The U.S has an unemployment rate

of 8.3% and the State of Utah has a unemployment

rate of 6.0%. Box Elder county is 7.1%, Cache county

is 4.3%, and Rich County is 3.9%.

• Economic recovery within Bear River ESA has been

mixed, the overall outlook is slowly getting better.

• The latest quarterly employment data (first quarter

2012) shows that year-over change in employment

for the Bear River area is on the verge of

experiencing some growth, after eight consecutive

months of employment contraction.

Executive Summary

• Cache county employment has been a relatively

positive picture during the first quarter of 2012, Box

Elder is still struggling to recover from the massive

job losses in manufacturing that occurred between

2009 and 2011.

• Year-over-year employment changes in Rich County

show an improving trend that is likely to go positive at

some point between now and the end of the year.

Building activity is still slow in the region as are

taxable sales.

National and Statewide

Employment

Total Employment and Unemployment

Rates

U.S. and Utah Unemployment Rates:

2001 to 2012

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Utah US

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Statewide Employment (Seasonally

Adjusted): 2000 to 2012

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; May 2012

Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric

Change July 2011-2012)

-900

300

500

800

1200

1800

1900

2300

4300

5000

7300 Professional and Business

Manufacturing

Education and Health

Financial Activities

Trade, Transportation, Utilities

Information

Government

Natural Resources

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Construction

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Utah Monthly Unemployment Rates*: 1976

to 2012

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

*Seasonally adjusted.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Disparity between Utah and the U.S.

Unemployment Rate

Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1980 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980

10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0

0 - 4

5- 9

10 - 14

15- 19

2 0 - 2 4

2 5- 2 9

3 0 - 3 4

3 5- 3 9

4 0 - 4 4

4 5- 4 9

50 - 54

55- 59

6 0 - 6 4

6 5- 6 9

70 - 74

75- 79

8 0 - 8 4

8 5+

Population

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0 - 4

5- 9

10 - 14

15- 19

2 0 - 2 4

2 5- 2 9

3 0 - 3 4

3 5- 3 9

4 0 - 4 4

4 5- 4 9

50 - 54

55- 59

6 0 - 6 4

6 5- 6 9

70 - 74

75- 79

8 0 - 8 4

8 5+

Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Dominating the Labor Force

Disparity between Utah and the U.S.

Unemployment Rate (Continued)

Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005

150 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0

0 - 4

5- 9

10 - 14

15- 19

2 0 - 2 4

2 5- 2 9

3 0 - 3 4

3 5- 3 9

4 0 - 4 4

4 5- 4 9

50 - 54

55- 59

6 0 - 6 4

6 5- 6 9

70 - 74

75- 79

8 0 - 8 4

8 5+

Population

15 10 5 0 5 10 15

0 - 4

5- 9

10 - 14

15- 19

2 0 - 2 4

2 5- 2 9

3 0 - 3 4

3 5- 3 9

4 0 - 4 4

4 5- 4 9

50 - 54

55- 59

6 0 - 6 4

6 5- 6 9

70 - 74

75- 79

8 0 - 8 4

8 5+

Population

Dominating the Labor Force

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Employment &

Unemployment

-16.9% -11.7%

-10.2% -6.2%

-5.0% -4.9%

-4.4% -4.3%

-3.7% -2.6%

-0.9% -0.8% -0.7% -0.3%

0.5% 0.6%

1.2% 1.7%

2.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.8%

5.4% 7.3% 7.3%

14.8%

WayneEmery

PiuteDaggettMorgan

RichBox Elder

MillardBeaver

San JuanTooele

JuabKane

IronCarbonSevierCache

SummitWeber

StatewideSalt Lake

GarfieldDavis

Utah CountyWasatchSanpete

WashingtonGrandUintah

Duchesne

Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs By County:2011 to 2012

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Box Elder County

Box Elder County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates: 2009 - 2012

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Box Elder Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Box Elder County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 - 2012

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Box Elder Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Box Elder County Year - Over Job Change

by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012

-960

-300

-22

-4

7

8

14

51

62

218

229

Manufacturing

Government

Mining

Information

Other Services

Financial Activities

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Leisure/Hospitality

Education/Health/Social Svcs

Construction

Professional/Business Svcs

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Box Elder County Percent Change in Nonfarm

Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012

12.7%

3.0%

1.0%

3.3%

4.9%

3.5%

1.0%

2.9%

3.7%

4.2%

6.7%

5.0%

-66.7%

-17.9%

-11.7%

-4.2%

-4.0%

0.4%

2.2%

2.5%

4.0%

4.2%

24.5%

35.4%

Mining

Manufacturing

Government

Total

Information

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Financial Activities

Other Services

Leisure/Hospitality

Education/Health/Social Svcs

Construction

Professional/Business Svcs

Box Elder Utah

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Box Elder County Total Employment by

Industry: January – March 2012

28.4%

21.7%

14.7%

10.2% 8.3%

6.2% 5.6%

2.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing

Job Growth Rates: 2007 to 2012

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012

Total Nonfarm Employment Manufacturing

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

*2011 4th quarter data is preliminary

Box Elder County 4-Week Moving Average of

Initial Unemployment Claims: 2007 to 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

39.5 16.5 24.75 20.75

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan Apr Jul Oct

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Box Elder County Weekly Average of 2nd

Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012

17 19

33

62

46

38

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Box Elder County Percent Change in

Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012

17%

-12%

28%

-38.7%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1stQtr

Box Elder Utah

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012

Box Elder County Percent Change in Total

Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012

130.2% 113.4%

-18.8%

-48.6% -51.1%

93.4%

-51.3%

-27.9%

29.0% 13.0%

-6.0% -35.0% -26.0%

-4.0%

16.0%

-11.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*YTD Apr

Box Elder Utah

*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012

Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Box Elder County Year-Over Change in Gross

Taxable Sales: 2009 to 2012 (Quarterly)

17.0%

-12.0%

28.0%

-38.7%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st Qtr

Box Elder Utah

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Cache County

Cache County Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rates: 2009 to 2012

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Cache Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cache County Year-Over Payroll Jobs by

Industry: 2009 to 2012

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Cache Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Cache County Year - Over Job Change by

Industry: March 2011 to March 2012

-54

-116

-67

4

21

70

74

79

149

210

241

Other Services

Construction

Professional/Business Svcs

Mining

Financial Activities

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Government

Information

Manufacturing

Leisure/Hospitality

Education/Health/Social Svcs

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Cache County Percent Change in Nonfarm

Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012

6.7%

2.9%

5.0%

1.0%

3.5%

3.3%

3.0%

1.0%

3.1%

3.7%

4.9%

12.7%

-6.0%

-5.3%

-1.3%

0.6%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

4.3%

5.5%

12.5%

66.7%

Construction

Other Services

Professional/Business Svcs

Government

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Total

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Education/Health/Social Svcs

Leisure/Hospitality

Information

Mining

Cache Utah

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Cache County Total Employment by

Industry: January – March 2012

25.5%

21.0%

14.3%

11.5% 10.2%

7.8%

3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Cache County 4- Week Moving Average of

Initial Unemployment Claims: 2008 to 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

56.25 23.5 27.5 55.75

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan Apr Jul Oct

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Cache County Weekly Average of 2nd

Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012

32 31

47

90 91

79

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Cache County Percent Change in Permitted

Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012

-21%

-11%

-1%

-43%

-5%

28%

-38%

74%

16%

-7%

-22%

-48% -1%

-11%

-3%

24%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD* Apr

Cache Utah

*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012

Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Cache County Percent Change in Total Permit-

Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012

-2.0%

29.3%

-4.0%

-42.8%

-12.6%

12.0%

-9.5%

-29.1%

28.7%

12.5%

-5.6% -34.5%

-26.1%

-2.7%

15.6%

-10.8%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cache Utah

*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012

Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Cache County Year-Over Change in Gross

Taxable Sales: 2006 – 2012 (Quarterly)

10.5%

9.3% 9.8%

-2.7%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1stQtr

Cache Utah

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Rich County

Rich County Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rates

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Rich Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Rich County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 to 2012

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012

Rich Utah U.S.

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Rich County Percent Change in Nonfarm

Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012

2.9%

6.7%

3.5%

4.9%

1.0%

3.3%

3.1%

1.0%

3.7%

3.0%

5.0%

12.7%

-33%

-20%

-19%

-8%

-5%

-4%

0%

0%

4%

4%

15%

19%

Other Services

Construction

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Information

Government

Total

Education/Health Social Svcs

Financial Actitivities

Leisure/Hospitality

Manufacturing

Professional/Business Svcs

Mining

Rich Utah

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Rich County Total Employment by Industry:

January – March 2012

47.6%

14.8% 11.6%

7.0% 5.9% 4.9% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Rich County Percent Change in Permitted

Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012

62.5%

94.9%

-38.2%

-8.5% 0.0%

33.3%

-59.6%

-8.7%

-100.0%

6.4% 16.4%

-6.9%

-22.0%

-48.4%

-1.1%

-11.0% -3.4%

24.3%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD* Apr

Rich Utah

*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012

Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Rich County Percent Change in Total

Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2004 to 2012

73.7%

156.3%

-142.1%

218.8%

120.0%

-28.3% -44.1%

15.6%

-83.7%

12.2% 28.7%

12.5%

-5.6%

-34.5%

-2.6% -3.6%

15.6%

-10.8%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD* Apr

Rich Utah

*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012

Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Rich County Year-Over Change in Gross

Taxable Sales: 2006 to 2012 (Quarterly)

29.7%

-3.8%

20.4% 6.1%

-1.9%

45.4%

-24.5% -2.6%

60.7%

1.1%

523.6%

442.0%

-37.1%

-91.8%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st Qtr

Rich Utah

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Q&A

For More Information:

Ivy Austria

Northern Region Economist

Department of Workforce Services

iaustria@utah.gov

(801) 526-9467