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A comprehensive view of accelerating change across fields is critical to innovating for the future. Assessment models and evaluation parameters are presented here.
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Melanie Swan Principal
MS Futures Group+1-650-681-9482
m@melanieswan.comwww.melanieswan.com
Singularity University
August 5, 2009
GA11: 9-12
Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows
Discontinuity Futures Simulation Workshop
2
Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Summary
A key aspect of futures studies is the convergent and interdisciplinary nature of disparate technologies
Technology growth may be linear, exponential and discontinuous
The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities are realized
Rapid transition time, doubling capability and adjacent advances may provide clues to discontinuous change
Image credit: Fausto de Martini
3
Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Singularity University
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology and Bioinformatics
Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement
AI and Robotics
Space and Physical Sciences
Energy and Ecological Systems
Networks and Computing Systems
Futures Studies
Policy Law and Ethics
Finance and
Entrepreneurship
Unifying frameworks and track synthesis
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities arrive
Sequence of discontinuities
Artificial intelligence
Molecular nanotechnology
Anti-agingtherapies
Whole human genome
New computing paradigm
Robotics
Intelligenceaugmentation
Personalized medicine
Affordable space launch
3D printing
Synthetic biology
Space-basedcivilization
New energy regime
Uploading
Modification of human
biological drives
time2009-2020 2020-2030 2030-2050+10 +20 +40
Brain emulation
Room- temperature
superconductivityMechanosynthesis
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Paradigms of growth and change
Linear Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
Exponential Technology: processors, memory, storage,
communications, iPhone applications
Discontinuous Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons,
satellites, computers, Internet, globalization Impossible to predict
Rapid transition time and doubling capability Adjacent technology advances Level of engagement
Exponential
Discontinuous
Linear
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
First principles (implied by historical trends)
Increase in humaneness Slavery, smoking, saturated fat,
dentistry Increase in abundance
Segment expansion (TIVO wedge) Radio/music sales, TV/YouTube
Multiple choices, not either/or Expanded possibilities
Ex: more habitable places: deserts, poles, seasteading, airsteading
Intervention (vs. interference) Inter-societal knowledge
7
Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Evolving concept of science
Model and simulate
Enumerate and
experiment
Build
BioSpice.orgSimTK.org
PartsRegistry.orgGeneGo (pathway modeling)
Entelos virtual patient biosimulation
FabAtHome.org
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Evolving concept of health
A consumer-centric model of health care
Source: http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/6/2/492
Cure
Improvement
Normalization
Prevention
Enhancement
Self-expression
ConditionsSymptoms
Genome Biomarkers Behavior Environment
Health outcomes
Measure
ResearchTreat
InterveneExperiment
TrackMeasureLiteracy
Actions
Self
Professionals
Peers
Infectious disease
Chronic disease
Aging
Cure
Improvement
Normalization
Prevention
Enhancement
Self-expression
ConditionsSymptoms
Genome Biomarkers Behavior Environment
Health outcomes
Measure
ResearchTreat
InterveneExperiment
TrackMeasureLiteracy
Actions
Self
Professionals
Peers
Infectious disease
Chronic disease
Aging
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Extensibility of Moore’s Law
Penryn45 nm, 410-800m transistors
Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors
Transistors per microprocessor
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
ITRS semiconductor roadmap
Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf
2007: 32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011 2009: 32 nm shifted out to 2010
2009 2010X
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Computing paradigm shifts
Electro-mechanical
Relay Vacuum tube
Transistor Integrated circuit
?
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Evolving computational modelsCurrent model extensibility
Linear, von Neumann
Linear, von Neumann
ParallelParallelCloud, grid, distributed
Cloud, grid, distributed
Biological models
Novel models
Traditional model
QuantumQuantumOptical
computing
Optical computing
Cell broadband
engine
Cell broadband
engine Liquid computer
Liquid computer
New materials
New materials
3D chip stacking
3D chip stacking
Molecular electronics
Molecular electronics Solar
transistors
Solar transistors
DNA nanotech
DNA nanotech DNA
computing
DNA computing
BiosensorsBiosensorsCellular colonies
Cellular colonies
Bacterial intelligence
Bacterial intelligence
Bioparadigm discovery
Bioparadigm discovery
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
End of Moore’s Law problem: when does top-down meet bottom-up? Top-down solutions
Block copolymer lithography CNT transistors Memristor Quantum-dot cellular automata Plasmonic materials & spintronics Quilt packaging & 3D stacking
Bottom-up solutions DNA self-assembly DNA computing DNA-based transistors 3D DNA nanocrystals Molecular memory Structural DNA:
Holliday junctionRotaxane Molecular propeller
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Arms race for the future of intelligence
Machine Human IBM Roadrunner 1.105 petaflop/s (>1,100
trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory1
Unlimited operational/build knowledge Quick upgrade cycles: performance
capability doubling every 18 months Linear, von Neumann architecture Understands rigid language Special purpose problem solving (Deep
Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection) Metal chassis, easy to backup
An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory2
Limited operational/build knowledge Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year
evolutionary adaptations Massively parallel architecture Understands flexible, fuzzy language General purpose problem solving,
works well in new situations Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
1Source: Top 500, June 2009, http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.crn.com/hardware/2084031862Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/pps/Unither
Full human brain neural simulation est: 2018
Average human: an estimated 20,000 trillion IPS
and 1,000 TB memory2
IBM Roadrunner: 1.1 petaflop/s (>1,100 trillion IPS) and 80 TB memory1
1http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/06, http://www.top500.org/system/89682http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
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Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Engineering life into technology
2029
Machine
Human
Human′ ?Capability
Year
Biomolecular interface convergence
17
Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Summary
A key aspect of futures studies is the convergent and interdisciplinary nature of disparate technologies
Technology growth may be linear, exponential and discontinuous
The ultimate future depends on the order in which discontinuities are realized
Rapid transition time, doubling capability and adjacent advances may provide clues to discontinuous change
18
Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Discontinuity futures simulation workshop
Image credit: Natasha Vita-More, Primo Posthuman
World’s top venture capitalists 5 teams
Each team has $1b to invest
Round 1: 2009-2020
Round 1: 2020-2030
Round 3: 2030-2040
19
Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Discontinuity futures simulation workshop
Nanotechnology
Biotechnology and Bioinformatics
Medicine, Neuroscience and Human Enhancement
AI and Robotics
Space and Physical Sciences
Energy and Ecological Systems
Networks and Computing Systems
Futures Studies
Policy Law and Ethics
Finance and
Entrepreneurship
Original ten Singularity University tracks
20
Discontinuity futuresAugust 5, 2009
Discontinuity futures simulation workshop
Nanotechnology
Life Sciences
AI, Robotics, Networks and Computing Systems
Space and Physical Sciences
Energy and Ecological Systems
You are the world’s leading venture capitalist…
Thank you
Melanie SwanPrincipal
MS Futures Group+1-650-681-9482
m@melanieswan.comwww.melanieswan.com
Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga/slideshows
Creative Commons 3.0 license
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