Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems

Global Warming,Disaster Management

&Early Warning

Systems

Lokhaze Ali Visiting Teaching Faculty NUST

PhD Student NUST

Thought of the Day

“KUN FAYAKUN” �ْن� ُك �وُن� �ُك َف�َي

is an Arabic phrase in QuranIt means The Lord says “Be, and it is”

Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems 2

Septimius Tertullianus, 200 B.C • One thing is sure - the earth is

now more cultivated and developed than ever before. There is more farming with pure force, swamps are drying up, and cities are springing up on unprecedented scale.

• We've become a burden to our planet. Resources are becoming scare, and soon nature will no longer be able to satisfy our needs. The time will ultimately come when pest, hunger, floods and war will diminish the excessive numbers of our human species. Global Warming, Disaster Management &

Early Warning Systems 3

Global Population Evolution For thousands of years, the world population remained well below 500 million. Within the last 200 years the population grew at an enormous speed to over 7 billion.

It’s Alright to be CONFUSED

What do the Scientists KNOW that the rest of Us do not Know?

The Earth Systems

The Basic Questions

What controls Earth’s temperature?How is climate changing?Is Global Warming due to humans?What will it be like in your lifetime?

Three Ways to Change the Temperature of a Planet

Change inputa) Solar variability

Change outputb) Earth’s Reflectivity (albedo)c) Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

The Story of Planets

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/wallpaper/art/pia06890-1600-1200.jpg

Earth (~150 million km)

Mars (~229 million km)

Venus (~108 million km)

The Story of Planets

Venus Earth Mars

450°C 15°C -55°C(would be -18°C without natural greenhouse effect)

The Greenhouse Effect

Water Vapors

Atmospheric Windows & Atmospheric Absorption Bands

The Keeling Curve

How CO2 concentration is measured

(left) CO2 Extraction Rack. (middle) Researchers at the lab measure the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in air sent in weekly from sites that are part of an international air sampling network. (right) locations of stations for flasks collected for CO2 and CO2 isotope measurements.

Ice Core containing tiny bubbles of Ancient Air

Scientists collecting ice core samples in Antarctica. An Antarctic ice core. A slice of ice core containing tiny bubbles of ancient air.

Ice Core Data from Antarctica going back 800,000 YBP

The Present CO2 Level

• 25th May, 2013:

400.01ppm

• 26th May, 2012:

396.34ppm

WHEN WAS CO2 LAST AT TODAY’S LEVEL, AND WHAT WAS THE WORLD LIKE THEN?

• most recent estimates suggest that between 5.2 and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene)

• the CO2 conc. in atmosphere reached between 330-400 ppm

• global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now• sea levels higher by 10 – 25 meters • implying that global ice volume was much less

than today

Multi-Model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming

Emissions & Sinks

Kyoto/Montreal Protocol• Third Conference of Parties (COP-3)

in Kyoto, Japan, in December of 1997 • Sets binding greenhouse gas

emissions targets for countries that sign and ratify the agreement.

The gases covered under the Protocol include • carbon dioxide• methane• nitrous oxide• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)• pduorocarbons (PFCs)• sulfur hexafluoride

Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms

1. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

2. Joint Implementation (JI)

3. International Carbon Trading (ICT)

Carbon Trading

• Carbon Markets• Carbon Credits• Carbon Trading

Carbon Footprint

Total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases emitted directly/indirectly into the system

Ocean Warming Faster Now Than in 10,000 Years

• Pacific Ocean waters warmed 15 times faster in the last six decades

• Than over the last ten millennia

• Fuel for more storms, hurricanes & disasters

Ozone Treaty Accidentally Slowed Global Warming

• The largest ozone hole ever observed

• September 2006• Shows a large area of depleted

stratospheric ozone • Over the South Pole • A phasedown in the use of CFCs

was enacted to reverse the loss of ozone

• Which protects the Earth from the sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation.

Disaster Management

World Meteorological Organization• According to the World

Meteorological Organization, one dollar invested in disaster preparedness can prevent seven dollars’ worth of disaster-related economic losses.

Continuum of Magnitude

Emergency Disaster CatastropheExtinction Level Event

Hazard

Vulnerability

Disaster

CATASTROPHE

“… any natural or manmade incident, including terrorism, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale, and/or government functions.”

Resilient Societies

• Ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner

• Through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures

Rising Exposure to Cyclones and Hurricanes, 2000-2050

World's Most Vulnerable Areas to Climate Change Mapped

• Scientists from the Wildlife Conservation Society, the University of Queensland, and Stanford University

• A roadmap that identifies the world's most vulnerable and least vulnerable areas in the Age of Climate Change

World Vulnerability Map

Earthquakes

Balakot• Pakistan Earthquake 2005• Human Loss : 73,338 Dead

and &128,304 Severely Injured

Puerto Rico 2010

Turkey 2011

Haiti Earthquake

Haiti 2010 – Before and After Earthquake• left 1.5 million homeless• killed 149,095 people of which 6300 died

in a potentially preventable cholera outbreak which infected a further 450,000 residents

• Cost Analysis by Remotely Sensed Data

Floods in Pakistan 2010

• Floods in Pakistan• July to August 2010• affected 20 million

people and destroyed health facilities

Famine in Africa 2011• Affected 10 million people

across several countries• Large population displacement • Lack of Disaster PreparednessImmediate priorities included• Provision of water, sanitation,

shelter• Trained staff to address

widespread acute malnutrition• Surveillance for outbreaks• Vaccine programs for

preventable diseases• Funding• Inter-agency coordination

Earthquake & Tsunami Japan 2011• Destruction of healthcare

facilities• Initial shortages of Food, Water,

fuel & Aid materials • 400,000 people were

evacuated to shelters with no heating in freezing temperatures

• Japan had invested in disaster management

• had created a more resilient health system which continued to function in spite of the challenges

Fukushima Nuclear Disaster

Super Typhoon Haiyan One of world’s most powerful storms in history from

World’s Costliest Disasters

Disaster Risk Management Framework

Challenges to Decision Making vs Basic Goals

Challenges to Decision Making • Where Uncomfortable Officials • Meet in Unfamiliar Surroundings• To Play Unaccustomed Roles• Making Unpopular Decisions• Based on Inadequate Information• And in Much Too Little Time

Basic GoalsStanding Orders for All Disasters:• Establish/re-establish

communication with affected area.

• Secure and complete search and rescue.

• Meet basic human needs for medical treatment, water, food, shelter, and emergency fuels

• Restore critical infrastructure.• Open schools and local

businesses.• Begin the recovery.

Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA)

Endorsed at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan

Global guidance framework to facilitate effective implementation of DRR at int’l, regional, national and local levels

• 3 Strategic goals

• 5 Priorities for action

• Implementation and follow-upGlobal Warming, Disaster Management &

Early Warning Systems 56

Green vs. Gray Infrastructure Costs

FEMA Trailer Types

Risk Maps/Simulation Models

Category 2 Storm

Three Dimensional Map Rendition of Flooding Event-Purdue University

Digital Elevation Modeling (DEM)

Migration Maps (from & to)• Digital Database• Climate Refugees• International Donor’s Aid

Records• Visa/ATM Cards• Mobile Tracking

ATLASThis 6-Foot, 330-Pound Robot May One Day Save Your Life

Designed to save lives in disaster zones (like Fukushima)1. VISION 2. COMPUTER3. HANDS4. JOINTS5. FEET6. MATERIALS7. STATURE

Pakistan’s Population

Number of climate refugees to touch 1 Billion (1000 million) mark by 2050

Early Warning Systems

Hadith

Tie the knot…… and leave it at God’s Will

Earth Observation

• Insight/understanding of Earth’s complex processes/changes

• Satellite Remote Sensing• Aerial Surveys• Geographic Information

System GIS• Land/ocean-based

monitoring systems• To support models/tools to

support decision making processes

Effective Warning Program

• Receive the warning• Understand the

information presented • Believe the information • Personalize the

information • Make correct decisions • Respond in a timely

manner

Existing Early Warning Systems

• Tsunami• Wildfires• Landslides• Floods/Urban flash

floods• Drought and famine• Volcanic eruption• Typhoons and

Hurricanes• Earthquakes

Meteoalarms

MétéoFrance Cartes de Vigilence for the heat wave

Nowcasting

• capacity to provide nowcasts

• forecasts for the following few hours

• analysis and extrapolation of weather systems

• observed on radar, satellites and in situ sensors

Earthquake Tsunami Warning System

• new earthquake alert system

• ocean-based tsunami warning system

Examples of Response to an Earthquake Early Warning

Landslides

Flood Warning System

Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART)

Wildfires

The Future

• Vision The Alternative Futures (Multiple Futures)

• Emerging Trends of the World

• Your Strategies for the Multiple Futures

• A timeline to implement your strategies

Follow China’s Strategy in Promoting Your Business

• China during Energy Crisis• Invested in manufacturing

Export Quality Solar Panels (as they could not afford to use them)

• Improved GDP • Now using those solar

panels for domestic and commercial use

Why Invest in Space Technology?

• Digital Monitoring• Knowing the Unknown• Exploring the Resources• Climate Investment Funds• Invest in Disaster

Management and Export Quality Early Warning Systems (Remote Sensing & GIS)

• Production and Usage

Future Trends

The Habitat Systems The Satellite Servicing ProjectThe Curiosity Rover to Mars

Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems

Technology

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Perfect Disaster Global Warming and its Effect on Sea Level Rise

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